If ever there was a place for a compelling case study on human emotion, the enclosure where horses return after The Everest would be a good one. It’s a mix between unbridled joy and instant dejection.
After a young bloodstock agent, who is also a slot holder for The Everest, won the race a couple of years ago, his eyes darted from the horse returning to scale to the semaphore board which told him he’d just won millions, and then to a couple of nosey reporters wanting an instant, unfiltered reaction.
Composing himself, James Harron said: “I think we might have found the secret.”
His secret was selecting a three-year-old horse to run in the race, Giga Kick, who until that point, had just raced four times in his career. Harron was chided for being naive about pitching such an inexperienced horse in a big race.
But he was right.
As jockey Craig Williams made a split-second decision at the top of the Royal Randwick straight about whether to zig or zag, Giga Kick then flew down the outside and toppled his older and more accomplished rivals. He paid $21. It’s still the biggest winning price for any horse in The Everest’s history.
Jockey Adam Hyeronimus unsaddles Storm Boy after winning the San Domenico Stakes in August.Credit: Getty Images
On Saturday, Harron’s instinct about the suitability of young horses for The Everest will have a reckoning when four – Growing Empire, Traffic Warden, Storm Boy and Lady Of Camelot – take on the $20 million sprint. It’s the most three-year-olds ever chosen for the race.
“My view is simply this: The Everest has been run seven times and the three-year-olds have won two,” says bookmaker Robbie Waterhouse, whose wife Gai co-trains Storm Boy and Lady Of Camelot.
“If you backed all the three-year-olds [in Everest history] you would be a long way in front. And to my mind, the older horses seem a bit weak this year. We all think great things of them, but I think they’ve been poor as a group.”
The weight-for-age scale used in major horse races and for The Everest is supposed to provide an even contest between rivals according to age and sex. Three-year-old colts and geldings carry 53kg and fillies 51.5kg. Male horses four years and older have to lump 58kg, and females 56.5kg.
Harron’s theory has not existed since The Everest’s inception in 2017.
He was the inaugural winning slot holder with Redzel, but in the last three years, he has zeroed in on the three-year-olds with Cylinder (fifth) running well 12 months ago. He has struck an agreement with Kiwi businessman Sir Owen Glenn to lease the slot for Lady Of Camelot this year.
“You don’t have a really dominant sprinter in the ranks of those older horses,” Harron says. “You can see a number of what would be our top sprinters and older horses mixing their form and taking turns so to speak.
“Given the fact the three-year-olds, from a very early stage of the race, showed the weight scale was an advantage, it seemed to highlight there was a good angle there. Bringing that fresh form line and fresh set of legs had appeal. And once you have success, you want to do it again.”
Of the 10 three-year-olds to have contested The Everest to date, six have finished in the top five, with Yes Yes Yes (2019) joining Giga Kick as surprise winners.
And punters are treading cautiously when it comes to the new brigade this year, with Traffic Warden and Growing Empire both on the second line of betting at $7.50 with Sportsbet on Thursday night.
“I think I said on the record a couple of months ago there could be as much five in the race [this year],” Harron says. “Then it looked like there was only going to be a couple. But it got to four overnight, which is great. I think the sprinting three-year-olds this year look really strong.”
Says Traffic Warden’s trainer James Cummings: “Three-year-olds have a good record in weight-for-age races this year. It’s a good pointer to see these three-year-olds competing strongly at weight-for-age, [and] it gives us a lot of confidence.”
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