The Queensland squad for Game I at the Adelaide Oval will be named by Billy Slater in just under three weeks with a number of interesting choices at key positions to be made.
The Kalyn Ponga/Reece Walsh battle for the fullback spot shapes up as the most fascinating, but Slater will also have to make some tough decisions on the wing and in the forward pack with plenty of fringe players putting their hand up for selection.
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Read on for the key contenders and verdict for each position.
FULLBACK
Incumbent: Kalyn Ponga
In the mix: Ponga, Reece Walsh.
Analysis: Even though it’s shaping up as a race in two, the fight for the Queensland number 1 jersey is probably the most intriguing. Incumbent Kalyn Ponga has worryingly dealt with concussion problems again this season, which has forced him to miss five games and travel to Canada for advanced neurological testing. Barring further injury, he’ll get four games before the Origin squad is announced to strut his stuff and prove he’s ready. Ponga has delivered almost every time he pulls on the Maroons jersey. He has runs on the board at this level, which gives him an edge over Walsh, who has been nothing short of brilliant for the high-flying Broncos this season. As of the end of Round 9, he is near the top of the league in try assists and line break assists. His attacking prowess withstanding, Walsh has measured up in defence as well, proving that part of his game won’t hinder him or Queensland in the high-pressure Origin environment if he was to get his chance. Titans fullback AJ Brimson suffered his second hamstring injury of the season in Round 9 and is expected to miss some more time. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been playing lights out for the plucky Dolphins, but it’s hard to imagine him starting over Walsh or Ponga at fullback. More on him below.
Verdict: Kalyn Ponga
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WING
Incumbent: Selwyn Cobbo (game I, II and III), Xavier Coates (game I), Murray Taulagi (game II), Corey Oates (game III)
In the mix: Cobbo, Coates, Taulagi, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Analysis:Cobbo showed last year that he belonged in the Origin arena and was the only winger to start all three games, although he did go off early in a brutal Game III. He’s bulked up this season and is arguably going better than he was this time last year. He’s averaging 144 metres per game over the first nine rounds, is safe under the high ball and is proving a real handful for opposition sides, running with the punch and power of a forward. He is prone to an error or two but that can sometimes be put down to youthful exuberence and trying to do too much. He is the obvious choice on one flank. The race for the opposite wing position is a little murkier. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has given himself every chance for selection after some electric form for the Dolphins this season, earning himself a new contract extension through to the end of 2027. He’s also been tested at this level before, scoring a try to help save a New South Wales whitewash in Game III of 2021, his sole start to date. Murray Taulagi has been tried and tested at this level, and has handled the occasion with aplomb. He may just lack the X-factor that his old Cowboys teammate Tabuai-Fidow possesses. Xavier Coates may have an edge considering Slater named him as Game I starter in 2022 but he suffered an ankle injury and missed the next two months. He’ll be one of the unlucky ones if he were to miss out. Corey Oates, who started on the wing in last year’s decider, won’t feature in Game I after being ruled out for a month with a knee injury.
Verdict: Selwyn Cobbo, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
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CENTRE
Incumbent: Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai
In the mix: Holmes, Gagai, Tabuai-Fidow
Analysis: Despite a shaky start for the Cowboys this season, Holmes should be one of the first picked for the Maroons due to his reputation as a big game player. Slater and Queensland fans should have confidence in Holmes to deliver and his elite goalkicking is a handy asset as well. Gagai is one of the most experienced Origin players in the NRL and more often than not leaves his mark, for the good, in this arena. At club level, he’s having one of his better seasons. Additionally, the Queensland centre stocks aren’t exactly lined with depth. Perhaps Slater picks Tabuai-Fidow in the centres and Coates on the wing, but it’s unlikely so we’re expecting the loyal Queensland brass go with Holmes and Gagai
Verdict: Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai.
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HALVES
Incumbent: Daly Cherry-Evans, Cam Munster (Game I and II), Tom Dearden (Game III)
In the mix: Cherry-Evans, Munster
Analysis: Probably the easiest decision Slater will have to make will be the halves pairing.
Cameron Munster has got the game perfect for Origin and is always one of the more threatening players on the park whenever Queensland and New South Wales collide. He’s a walk-up starter. Daly Cherry-Evans will be collecting his 20th cap for the Maroons when he runs onto Adelaide Oval for Game I. The 34-year-old has been a steady head for some time now, and is set to represent his state for at least a couple more years.
Verdict: Cameron Munster (five-eighth), Daly Cherry-Evans (halfback)
PROP
Incumbent: Josh Papalii (Game I, II and III), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Game I – played Game II and II at lock), Lindsay Collins (Game II and III).
In the mix: Papalii, Fa’asuamaleaui, Collins, Jai Arrow, Tom Flegler, Tom Gilbert
Analysis: After missing the first three games through injury and a sluggish start to the season when he did return, Josh Papalii has been one of the Green Machine’s best during their three-game winning streak. In just 52 minutes in Round 9, Papalii recorded 178 running metres and 26 tackles. His experience in this arena is priceless and he’s a player that his teammates love playing for. He’ll start and play a very impactful 30-40 minutes. Titans captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui looks a sure starter on the back of some consistent form for the Gold Coast. He started in all three games last year. Lindsay Collins started the final two games of last year’s series, but was knocked out early of a brutal Game III. The Australian rep is again having a good season for the Roosters and always measures up in Origin. Jai Arrow is a reliable performer for the Maroons, and we think he’ll edge Reuben Cotter for a spot on the bench. Tom Gilbert made his Origin debut in the decider last year and played 78 minutes off the bench after Cobbo and Collins left the game very early. The occasion wasn’t too big for him and after a strong start for the Dolphins, he’s in contention here. In any case, we’ll see a lot of him on this stage in the coming years. Likewise the fiery Tom Flegler, who came off the bench in a Maroons Game III win in 2021.
Verdict: Josh Papalii, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Lindsay Collins (off the bench), Jai Arrow (off the bench).
HOOKER
Incumbent: Ben Hunt
In the mix: Hunt, Harry Grant
Analysis: The Dragons may be struggling, but Ben Hunt has been one of the rare shining lights for the Red V. He has started at hooker in Queensland’s last four matches, with the Maroons winning three of those. We think he’ll run on with the number nine on his back with Storm rake Harry Grant to come off the pine. Grant’s been tremendous for Melbourne this year and finds himself near the top of the Dally M leaderboard. The Hunt-Grant combination that caused New South Wales many headaches in 2022 as well as Australia’s foes in the World Cup will be lining up in all three games this Origin, barring catastrophe.
Verdict: Ben Hunt, Harry Grant (off the bench).
SECOND ROW
Incumbent: Kurt Capewell (Game I, II, III), Felise Kaufusi (Game I, II), Jeremiah Nanai (Game III)
In the mix: Capewell, Kaufusi, Fifita, Nanai* (suspended)
Analysis: Considering his consistent form for the Maroons over the past three years and the loyalty you are afforded playing for Queensland, Kurt Capewell looks a pretty safe bet to retain his spot. His form in clubland hasn’t tapered off this season, scoring four tries for the top-of-the-table Broncos. His running mate for Game I looms as a tougher decision for Billy Slater. Felise Kaufusi was one of the in-form players of the competition before he missed four games through suspension. He’s rarely let Queensland down whenever he’s donned the Maroons jersey. His ferocious hitting and aggression lends itself well for the Origin arena. David Fifita is arguably in career best form for the Titans, so don’t be surprised to see tre $1.2m man handed a starting jersey. However, we’re expecting Slater to give him a spot on the bench so he can play high impact minutes in the second half and terrorise some tired NSW bodies. Jeremiah Nanai hasn’t been setting the world on fire for the Cowboys this season and his suspension for a hip drop rules him out of Game I anyway.
Verdict: Kurt Capewell, Felise Kaufusi, David Fifita (off the bench).
LOCK
Incumbent: Reuben Cotter (Game I), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Game II), Pat Carrigan (Game III)
In the mix: Carrigan, J’maine Hopgood, Cotter
Analysis: Broncos lock Pat Carrigan tasted Origin for the first time in 2022, and he didn’t let the occasion get too big for him, winning the Wally Lewis Medal for the player of the series. That was even after beginning the first two games of the series on the bench. That won’t be happening this year, with the 25-year-old expected to start in all three games. J’maine Hopgood has been one of the most improved players in the game this season but its unlikely he’ll feature in Game I. Reuben Cotter will be considered for a bench role, despite missing a few games with injury this season. He started in the Game I win last year, playing 80 minutes and leading the Maroons in tackles (51).
Verdict: Pat Carrigan
PREDICTED QLD TEAM
1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Selwyn Cobbo
3. Valentine Holmes
4. Dane Gagai
5. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
9. Ben Hunt
10. Josh Papalii
11. Kurt Capewell.
12. Felise Kaufusi
13. Patrick Carrigan
INTERCHANGE
Harry Grant, David Fifita, Lindsay Collins, Jai Arrow.
18TH MAN
Reuben Cotter
