DOHA, Qatar — Less than 24 hours from kickoff, the drama surrounding the United States men’s national team’s match against Iran on Tuesday has reached fever pitch. Not only is there everything to play for on the field, there is a growing discontent between the geopolitical rivals away from the pitch.
Throughout this World Cup, discussions involving Iran have revolved around conditions back home, where 410 protestors have been killed in the two months of unrest following the death of a 22-year-old woman while in custody of the country’s morality police. In an attempt to show solidarity with those protestors, the US Soccer Federation briefly displayed Iran’s national flag on social media without the emblem of the Islamic Republic, resulting in fierce backlash, the Iranian government accusing the federation of removing the name of God from their national flag.
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It hasn’t helped the matter that ex-USMNT manager Jurgen Klinsmann criticized Iranian football culture after their 2-0 win over Wales on Friday.
That’s the backdrop that Tuesday’s group-stage finale will play out in front of. On the field, the two countries will be playing for a place in the knockout rounds. The US sit third in Group B on two points, following draws against Wales and England, and must beat Carlos Queiroz’s side if they’re to make the round of 16. Second-placed Iran, meanwhile, will advance with the group stage with any result other than defeat.
This match is shaping up to be one of the most intense contests of the group stage. So how will it play out once the game kicks off? ESPN asked Jeff Carlisle and Gabriel Tan to break down how these two teams match up.
What’s worked for the US? And what hasn’t?
The US have been outstanding defensively so far, which has been a pleasant surprise. The center of the defense was thought to be a weak spot, but Tim Ream’s insertion into the lineup alongside Walker Zimmerman has worked wonders. They haven’t done it alone either, with Tyler Adams winning an impressive 85.7% of his tackles. As a team, the US have been effective with their pressing, flummoxing England, while Matt Turner has been solid in goal. The only hiccup — and yes, it was a big one — was the late penalty Zimmerman conceded against Wales.
Queiroz is aware that he has two top-class strikers in Taremi and Azmoun. In particular, the former already showed what he can do against quality opposition in England, and is no one-hit wonder either, having scored five times for FC Porto in this season’s Champions League alone.
The key to victory on Tuesday, as it was against Wales, could just be ensuring both of them receive a steady supply of chances in one-on-one situations. While both are decent in the air, Iran could be better off being more intricate in the final third as it worked well for them against both the English and the Welsh, whose backlines arguably have similar physical profiles as the United States.
Still, in order to start working the ball in and around the opposition area, they will have to be in possession first, and that is where the engine room battle between United States duo Adams and Weston McKennie and Iran’s Ezatolahi and Ahmad Nourollahi could prove pivotal. There is also the matter of curbing the influence of Pulisic and, having rotated between his right-backs, it will be interesting to see if Queiroz sticks with the goal scoring Ramin Rezaeian or reverts to the more defensive-minded Sadegh Moharrami. — Tan
Predictions
US 2-1: I think the US get it done, but by the thinnest of margins. Look for McKennie to get one, if not both goals, via a set piece. — Carlisle
Iran 2-1: Team Melli will have no shortage of motivation to rise to the occasion and, for the second tournament running, they actually have the quality to back it up. Last time out, Spain and Portugal proved too much to overcome in the end, but Iran will believe that — having seen off Wales — they can do the same against the US to reach the round of 16. — Tan
