14. TSG Hoffenheim | 28 pointsHoffenheim weren’t even really in the frame for relegation three months ago, but after the resumption of play following the World Cup break, their winless run reached 15 games. Head coach Andre Breitenreiter was sacked during this spell, and new manager Pellegrino Matarazzo finally ended it against Hertha — his sixth match in charge. During this run, they were the worst team in possessions ending in goals, sequences ending in shots, 14th in duels and tackling success rate and 17th in shots on goal. However, they have won their past three matches and now aren’t that far away from safety.
In these three wins, they’ve completely turned their form around, leading the league in possessions ending in goals and big chances created during this stretch, and improved to a midtable standard of tackling and duels success rate. While these games have been against the likes of Hertha and Schalke 04, they only need to beat the teams around them to stay up. While their remaining opponents have an average points per game of 1.52, they do include Stuttgart and FC Cologne, which should be enough to stay up.
15. Bochum | 26 points
Bochum’s issues with shots on goal, possessions ending in goals and chance creation have improved since the winter break, with these metrics now being ranked that of a midtable team. They’re also one of the strongest teams on set-piece expected goals. They also are ranking higher in statistics often aligned with intensity including duels and high pressures.
Based on that alone, you would think that they would stay in a safe position for the rest of the season, however their fixture list so far has been kinder to them than their relegation rivals. That will change very soon with their remaining opponents having an average of 1.57 points per game, with that number going to 1.85 in their next four: at Union Berlin, vs. VfL Wolfsburg, vs. Borussia Dortmund and at Borussia Monchengladbach. While Bochum have laid a good foundation for staying up, the strength of the teams that might push them down the order can’t be ignored, and therefore their chances of safety will be significantly affected if Stuttgart or Schalke can overtake them or if Hoffenheim or Augsburg drop below them.
16. Stuttgart | 23 points
In January, data didn’t accurately reflect Stuttgart’s future as they had just hired Bruno Labbadia as manager, and thus we would need more games to see if they would demonstrably improve. Unfortunately, for our purposes, he was fired earlier this month, replaced by ex-Hoffenheim coach Sebastian Hoeneß, leaving us in the same predicament of not knowing how or whether they’ll improve.
Stuttgart have seen a general improvement since the winter break and are now sixth in actions in the final third, seventh in big chances created and fifth in sequences ending in shots. These statistics were definitely on display as they beat Bochum 3-1 to leap over both Schalke and Hertha into the relegation playoff. Their remaining opponents average 1.23 points per game, so they also have an easier run-in than others, and they also have the quality in players like Borna Sosa, Konstantinos Mavropanos and Silas Katompa Mvumpa. They should, based on this and data, stay up.
