Whether Australia are good enough to take that path by winning their four remaining matches is another question entirely.
But the equation is simple enough. Of the six teams in Group 1, New Zealand, England and Australia are the heavyweights, with Afghanistan and qualifiers Sri Lanka and Ireland filling the remaining spots.
So for Australia to be sure of making the knockout stage, a New Zealand victory over England would likely leave the Kiwis undefeated at the top of Group 1.
Four successive victories means Australia would have beaten England on the way through, leaving the old enemy with three wins and knocking them out of the finals race. This would ensconce Australia comfortably in second place, with the top two from each group going through to the semis.
But for that sequence of events to take place, it will require a different Australia to the one that’s been splintering all over the country during a frantic and largely unproductive preparation.
Playing Sri Lanka in Perth on Tuesday should give Australia a significant advantage. The pace and bounce of West Australian pitches is a long way from the slow, low strips in Sri Lanka which confounded the Australians at times during their midwinter tour this year.
David Warner reacts after he was out bowled against New Zealand at the SCG.Credit:AP
Victory in Perth would set up Friday’s night’s blockbuster against England at the MCG, after England beat Afghanistan in Perth in the late game on Saturday night.
The uncomfortable truth is that England have looked a better team than Australia in the lead-up. Had it not been for rain in Canberra washing out the final game, England would have won a recent T20 series against Australia 3-0.
Australia can point to victories in a two-match clash against the West Indies before that series against England, but rarely has success against the once mighty Caribbean cricketers been more devalued. They failed to get past the qualifiers to make the Super 12 of the World Cup, prompting Ricky Ponting to label the West Indies “a disgrace.”
Unbeaten in a Test series for from 1980 to 1995, the current group of West Indians lost two of their three qualifying matches over the past week, to Scotland and Ireland, beating only Zimbabwe.
During Australia’s failed 1992 World Cup defence in Australia and New Zealand, captain Allan Border talked of “hitting a submerged log” which prevented Australia from gaining any momentum.
Saturday night’s submerged log must have been one of New Zealand’s towering Kauri trees. Whether it was batting, bowling or fielding, Australia did not look like a team capable of making the finals.
They will point to their recovery in last year’s Twenty20 World Cup after a flogging by England, as Marcus Stoinis did on Sunday before the Australians boarded their flight to Perth.
But the Australians already had some momentum in Dubai last year, winning a tense, low-scoring opener against South Africa, thanks to the heroics of Stoinis and Matthew Wade, and then comfortably accounting for Sri Lanka.
Josh Hazlewood leaves the SCG after Australia’s loss to New Zealand.Credit:Getty
This time the Australians have failed to win their last five T20 matches, the three-game series against England, a practice match against India – when Australia snatched defeat from the jaws of victory – and Saturday night’s debacle.
If Australia loses another match in this tournament some uncomfortable truths will need to be confronted, starting with captain Aaron Finch.
Unless Finch, 36 next month, can regain the type of form that made him one of the world’s most dominant and destructive white ball players, then the selectors will need to decide between the past and the future.
Should it become obvious during the tournament that Australia cannot make the finals and Finch remains unable to make a meaningful contribution, does he stay on as a tribute for all he has done in Australian cricket?
Aaron Finch is under pressure to keep his spot.Credit:Getty
Or do the selectors replace Finch with exciting young all-rounder Cameron Green at the top of the order to give him some valuable tournament play ahead of the 50-over World Cup in India a year from now?
If Australia relives the Dubai dream, having won that inaugural T20 World Cup title a year ago, then none of these questions will matter, for the moment at least.
But if they continue to be mugged by reality, the future will be more important than the past.
Watch the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup live and free on Channel 9 and 9Now.
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