Da da. Da da.
Don’t look now. But like a giant mechanical shark with its own soundtrack, four-time reigning premiers Penrith are circling.
Canterbury became the Panthers’ latest victims on Thursday night when the ladder-leaders went down, by the barest of margins, in the best game of the season so far.
For all the Bulldogs’ grit and grind – modelled on the Panthers’ prize-winning formula, Penrith showed they’re still the game’s best exponents of it, pressuring Canterbury into uncharacteristic second-half mistakes and then out-lasting them in a thriller.
So much hinges on fitness and Nathan Cleary’s niggling groin injury, of course. But Penrith did win the 2021 title with half their side playing on one leg (and Dylan Edwards playing with a broken foot).
And now with nine games left, the finals are well and truly calling for Ivan Cleary’s side. Particularly when 13 wins is likely to guarantee a place in the top eight.
The run home: How far can Penrith actually go in 2025?Credit: Stephen Kiprillis
Twelve wins might even be enough to get a side with a healthy points differential to the finals. But the two competition points shared by the Panthers and Cowboys from their draw back in round 10 could prove the difference.
So, just how far can the premiers – and all 16 rivals – go this season? A game-by-game breakdown of Penrith’s run home after next week’s timely bye spells out exactly what Thursday night’s thrilling contest hinted at: the premiership race is about to be turned on its head.
Current ladder position: Sixth – 19 points, seven wins, one draw, seven losses, two byes, +3 points differential
Games against top 8: four.
Games against top 4: four.
Wins to make top eight: five from nine games.
Predicted finish: fifth.
Round 18: bye
Round 19: Eels at Commbank Stadium
A danger game with their Origin players facing a four-day turnaround into the local derby, with Parramatta playing far better of late than their lowly position on the ladder suggests. The Eels’ offload-centric game under Brad Arthur troubled Penrith’s defence in years past. But their style under Jason Ryles – playing with more width and a real emphasis on Dylan Walker’s ball-playing – is still evolving. No Mitchell Moses to guide Parramatta should tip this one Penrith’s way.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 3-2
Round 20: Rabbitohs at Commbank Stadium
Souths as well are a stronger than a 16th-placed side, particularly when Latrell Mitchell is firing and their backline stars are returning from injury. The real worry for Penrith is the five-day turnaround from their Sunday, July 13 game while the Rabbitohs will come off a bye. For the Panthers’ Origin quintet, this could be a third game in the space of 11 days unless Ivan Cleary rests them.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 3-2
Round 21: Wests Tigers at Commbank Stadium
Four-time premiership-winner Jarome Luai looms once more against his old teammates as the Tigers begin an all-too familiar slide down the ladder, despite their improvement in 2025. As plucky as the Tigers have been, and they often aim up against Penrith, the Panthers will be warm favourites for this clash.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 4-1
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai after their recent clash at Commbank Stadium.Credit: Getty Images
Round 22: Titans at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Penrith haven’t lost to the Titans since their 2019 car crash campaign that triggered the greatest premiership run of the modern era. And if you’ve seen the Gold Coast go around this season, it won’t be happening in 2025 either.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 5-0
Round 23: Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
A potential banana peel, even with Newcastle’s 14.6 points per game this season making for the worst attack of the NRL by some margin. The Knights knocked off Penrith in May when they were without their Origin stars and have regularly dragged the competition heavyweights into a defensive dogfight in recent years.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 4-1
Round 24: Storm at Commbank Stadium
The finals effectively start here for Penrith, with Melbourne the first of three genuine title contenders in as many weeks. The Storm have been erratic throughout 2025 but used the corresponding clash last season to make a statement, beating the premiers in front of a sold-out Panthers Stadium by targeting Brian To’o under the high ball and managing to stifle his yardage game.
Last five clashes: Storm leads 3-2
Ricky Stuart’s Raiders loom as a genuine threat to Penrith.Credit: Getty Images
Round 25: Raiders at Commbank Stadium
Canberra’s ability to win as front-runners or from behind, playing fast and free or grinding the opposition into error, has shades of Penrith about it – albeit with only half a season’s worth of evidence behind it. Three weeks out from the finals, this looms as a litmus test for both sides – particularly the Raiders’ young playmakers Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weekes, who are yet to experience semi-finals pressure.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 4-1
Round 26: Bulldogs at Accor Stadium
Penrith have shown Canterbury what it takes to win the games that matter most. It will be fascinating to see just how much Cameron Ciraldo’s side has learned by this point in the year. Just as intriguing will be how the Dogs’ juggling of their playmakers and Lachlan Galvin’s introduction to the side plays out. If this match wasn’t scheduled for Thursday night, you’d expect another 50-60,000 Bulldogs fans turning out.
Last five clashes: Penrith lead 5-0
Round 27: Dragons at WIN Stadium, Wollongong
By all rights, Penrith will be tuning up for yet another finals tilt with every other side on edge. We’ve seen worse final-round hit-outs than a Saturday afternoon in Wollongong. The Dragons will be looking at another early Mad Monday and, given the way rugby league goes, an increasingly bright spotlight on Shane Flanagan as he comes off-contract in 2026.
Last five clashes: Panthers lead 4-1
Once the fun and games of the 27-round regular season is done, it’s a whole new competition. Just how far Penrith can go – as we’ve mapped out further below – depends, of course, on how the rest of the NRL finishes up.
Current position: First – 28 points, 11 wins, three losses, three byes, +96 points differential
Games against top 8: six.
Games against top 4: two.
Wins to make top eight: two from 11 games.
Predicted finish: second.
Are we seeing just a bit of a tail-off from the Dogs after three months sitting in first place? It wouldn’t be the worst thing for Canterbury to be taking stock at this point, with a first-choice playmaking spine needing to settle. A final month of games against the Roosters, Storm, Panthers and Sharks is a tough one going into the post-season.
Current position: Second – 26 points, 12 wins, three losses, one bye, +100 points differential
Games against top 8: one.
Games against top 4: none.
Wins to make top eight: one from nine games.
Predicted finish: first.
A couple of byes after the heaviest travel toll of any NRL side and just one game against a top-eight side (Penrith in round 25) makes for a rails run home. Canberra have done exceptionally well to have a top-four berth all but sewn up. Ricky Stuart’s biggest task now is keeping his young side healthy and focused as the inevitable hype grows around them.
Current position: Third – 24 points, nine wins, four losses, three byes, +172 points differential
Games against top 8: seven.
Games against top 4: none.
Wins to make top eight: four wins from 11 games.
Predicted finish: third.
Like the Bulldogs, Melbourne’s last month of the season will be a true test of where they’re at come finals time. Provided their Origin stars come through the next few weeks unscathed, the inconsistency of their campaign should get worked out for yet another premiership tilt.
Current position: Fourth – 24 points, ten wins, four losses, two byes, +25 points differential
Games against top 8: two.
Games against top 4: one.
Wins to make top eight: three wins from 10 games.
Predicted finish: fourth.
Sitting in a similar boat to Canberra having punched well above their weight over the first half of the season. After Saturday’s mouth-watering clash with Brisbane, Canterbury in round 23 looms as their only opponent that will be anywhere near grand final day. Cruising, though can’t afford to lose any more veterans with Mitch Barnett (ACL) gone for the season and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (ankle) also out for at least the next month.
Current position: Fifth – 20 points, seven wins, seven losses, three byes, +16 points differential
Games against top 8: four.
Games against top 4: three.
Wins to make top eight: six from 10 games.
Predicted finish: seventh.
Starting to put together a fine campaign, with five wins from their last seven games (losses to Canterbury and Canberra could and should have been Roosters wins, too). Their bye this week lifts them to fifth on the NRL ladder but the Tricolours still need to bank victories against the Tigers and Dragons in early July before a run of top-eight clashes. Still well-placed to play finals.
Current position: Seventh – 18 points, seven wins, seven losses, two byes, +50 points differential
Games against top 8: four.
Games against top 4: four.
Wins to make top eight: six wins from 10 games.
Predicted finish: sixth.
For all the criticism and focus on the Broncos – so much of it self-inflicted – Michael Maguire has them sitting fifth midway through his first year. If they can get some consistency in their game, they’ll hit the finals in good shape – big clashes against the Warriors, Bulldogs and Storm (twice) will test their mettle.
Current position: Eighth – 18 points, eight wins, seven losses, one bye, +20 points differential
Games against top 8: three.
Games against top 4: two.
Wins to make top eight: five from nine games.
Predicted finish: eighth.
Sliding, and sliding fast with defence and application worryingly missing of late. The next few weeks against the Storm, Dolphins and Roosters could dig the Sharks into a serious hole if they can’t emerge with at least one win. Life does get easier from there, though.
Current position: Ninth – 16 points, seven wins, eight losses, one bye, +140 points differential
Games against top 8: five.
Games against top 4: two.
Wins to make top eight: six from nine games.
Predicted finish: 10th.
Have found their mojo in attack but need to keep winning after a dreadful start to the year. Can largely control their own destiny in the next three weeks – victories over Cronulla, South Sydney and North Queensland would come with the added value of hobbling rivals sitting alongside them on the ladder. Injuries up front are a worry, though.
Current position: 10th – 16 points, six wins, eight losses, two byes, +22 points differential
Games against top 8: five.
Games against top 4: four.
Wins to make top eight: seven from 10 games.
Predicted finish: ninth.
Manly have been the biggest disappointment of 2025 so far, with all the drama around Daly Cherry-Evans’ future derailing their season. Shifting Tom Trbojevic into the centres and Lehi Hopoate to fullback needs to spark the Sea Eagles immediately, because back-to-back games against Melbourne and Canterbury coming up could end their campaign early.
Current position: 11th:five wins, eight losses, three byes, -59 points differential
Games against top 8: seven.
Games against top 4: four.
Wins to make top eight: eight from 11 games.
Predicted finish: 14th.
The Dragons will once again miss the finals in 2025. With all three byes out of the way, two games against Canberra, roster conjecture and doubts around the halves as always, a slide down the ladder looms.
Current position: 12th: Five wins, one draw, eight losses, two byes, -140 points differential
Games against top 8: four.
Games against top 4: two.
Wins to make top eight: seven from 10 games.
Predicted finish: 11th.
The Cowboys have been one of the biggest under-performers in 2025, but they have a soft run home that could help them crack the finals. On the basis of a defence that has leaked 100 points in the past two games, North Queensland are in deep trouble. But if they can jag an upset over Melbourne or Canterbury in coming weeks, the chance to build momentum is there.
Current position: 13th: Six wins, nine losses, one bye, -63 points differential
Games against top 8: seven.
Games against top 4: four.
Wins to make top eight: seven from nine games.
Predicted finish: 15th.
Newcastle won’t be scraping into the finals this year. Their attack still offers far too little and the next five weeks (Canberra twice, Melbourne, Warriors and Penrith) is the toughest run in the NRL. Fletcher Sharpe joining a slew of injured forwards on the sidelines is all sorts of bad news.
Current position: 14th: five wins, nine losses, two byes, -66 points differential
Games against top 8: five.
Games against top 4: three.
Wins for top eight: eight wins from 10 games.
Predicted finish: 13th.
The Tigers have improved this season, but Lachlan Galvin’s exit rocked the club and more scrutiny is coming their way as Tallyn Da Silva prepares to leave early, too. Add the injury to Jahream Bula and the club, while likely avoid the wooden spoon, won’t be getting near finals this year.
Current position: 15th: five wins, nine losses, two byes, -89 points differential
Games against top 8: six.
Games against top 4: three.
Wins to make top eight: eight from 10 games.
Predicted finish: 16th.
The Eels did well to beat the Titans last week, but Mitchell Moses’ latest Origin-inflicted injury cruelled any hope of a run up the ladder while a tough finish to the year against NRL heavyweights will not do justice to the improvements during Jason Ryles’ first year in charge.
Current position: 16th: six wins, nine losses, one bye, -89 points differential
Games against top 8: 4.
Games against top 4: 0.
Wins to make top eight: seven from nine games.
Predicted finish: 12th.
The Rabbitohs have an easier run home compared to some, but it still includes games against the Panthers, Sharks and Broncos. Seven wins for a finals run is too big an ask from a team that’s been so injury-plagued this year, though at full strength they’ll keep every rival nervous.
Current position: 17th: four wins, 10 losses, two byes, -138 points differential
Games against top 8: five.
Games against top 4: two.
Wins to make top eight: nine from 10 games.
Predicted finish: 17th.
With five top-eight teams left to face this season and the worst points differential in the competition, the Titans will do well to avoid the wooden spoon as their defensive frailties put Des Hasler’s tenure under extreme pressure.
The finals run: Could Penrith actually pinch a premiership?
A fifth or sixth-placed finish would give the Panthers a home semi-final (not quite the silver bullet it was when they were playing out of Penrith Park) but there won’t be a precious week off regardless given the top four is all but settled already.
Here’s how we see their finals run playing out.
Week one: Elimination final against Cronulla at Commbank Stadium
Whoever Penrith line up against in week one, be it the Sharks, Broncos, Roosters, Sea Eagles or Dolphins, as long as the Panthers and Cleary are fit, we’re seeing too much big-game experience and momentum with the premiers. A date with one of the top-four teams looms.
Week two: Semi-final against the Warriors at Mount Smart Stadium
And this, for us at least, is the end of the line. No matter which way the top four shakes out, it’s a daunting home ground advantage to whichever finals week one loser Penrith draw. The Raiders in Canberra, Storm in Melbourne, Warriors across the ditch or Bulldogs in front of a likely 80,000-strong sell-out is all sorts of awesome for rugby league.
Penrith knocked off the Warriors at home, but can they do it again come finals time?Credit: Getty Images
And after a valiant, show-stealing run from last place on the ladder just a few weeks ago, where we see the Panthers finally being stopped. We’ll have a new title-holder for the first time since 2020, but it’ll be a lot of fun getting there.
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Michael Chammas and Andrew “Joey” Johns dissect the upcoming NRL round, plus the latest footy news, results and analysis. Sign up for the Sin Bin newsletter.
