We’re eight matches away from the World Cup knockouts, and two of the semi-finalists are already locked in.
Hosts India and South Africa have secured top four spots, sitting on 16 and 12 points respectively, while it would take something drastic for the Proteas to not finish second on the standings.
Attention therefore shifts to the other two semi-finals vacancies, with six teams still mathematically in the running. England and Bangladesh have been eliminated, having already tasted defeat six times.
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Australia, coming off five consecutive wins, are all but certain to finish third on the standings, needing to win just one of their remaining two group-stage matches to progress through to the semi-finals. Even if Pat Cummins’ men lose to Afghanistan and Bangladesh this week, they could still scrape into the top four pending net run rate.
Of course, Australia will want to avoid finishing fourth on the standings, otherwise they’ll coming up against the undefeated Indians in their semi-final. If they place second of third, they’ll almost certainly come up against South Africa, who infamously have a terrible record in World Cup knockout.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, both sitting on four points, essentially need a miracle to progress beyond the group stage. Their fate is out of their hands, and both nations will be relying on every result falling in their favour for even a slim chance of qualifying for the knockouts.
It leaves New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan locked in an intriguing battle for the last semi-finals spot.
The Afghans, who have won four of their seven group-stage matches, will need to defeat Australia and South Africa this week to secure a semi-finals berth. Because of their poor net runs rate, one win probably won’t be enough.
New Zealand and Pakistan, both equal on eight points, will be keeping a close eye on each other’s last group-stage match over the coming days. The Black Caps, who face Sri Lanka on Thursday, are ahead of Pakistan by 0.362 on net run rate, but Babar Azam’s men have the advantage of knowing exactly what margin they’ll need to defeat England by to qualify for the semi-finals — what that margin is depends on New Zealand’s result against Sri Lanka. The bigger New Zealand’s margin of victory, the more difficult things become for Pakistan.
We might be seeing a lot of calculators in the dugout this week.
Imran Khan’s ‘Cornered Tigers’ famously scraped into the 1992 World Cup semi-finals after losing three group-stage matches, which Pakistan will be drawing plenty of inspiration from this week.
LADDER
1. India (16 points) — 8 wins, 0 losses (+2.456)
2. South Africa (12 points) — 6 wins, 2 loss (+1.376)
3. Australia (10 points) — 5 wins, 2 losses (+0.924)
4. New Zealand (8 points) — 4 wins, 4 losses (+0.398)
5. Pakistan (8 points) — 4 wins, 4 losses (+0.036)
6. Afghanistan (8 points) — 4 wins, 3 losses (-0.330)
7. Sri Lanka (4 points) — 2 win, 5 losses (-1.162)
8. Netherlands (4 points) — 2 wins, 5 losses (-1.398)
9. Bangladesh (2 points) — 1 win, 6 losses (-1.446)
10. England (2 points) — 1 win, 6 losses (-1.504)
FIXTURES
November 6: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka @ Arun Jaitley Stadium
November 7: Australia vs Afghanistan @ Wankhede Stadium
November 8: England vs Netherlands @ MCA International Stadium
November 9: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
November 10: South Africa vs Afghanistan @ Narendra Modi Stadium
November 11: Australia vs Bangladesh @ MCA International Stadium
November 11: England vs Pakistan @ Eden Gardens
November 12: India vs Netherlands @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
Finals
November 15: 1st place vs 4th place @ Wankhede Stadium
November 16: 2nd place vs 3rd place @ Eden Gardens
November 19: Winner of semi-final 1 vs winner of semi-final 2 @ Narendra Modi Stadium
