As the years have passed and technology has improved, the likelihood of unknown players emerging out of nowhere to star at a World Cup has radically diminished. The routine use of analytics, “digital scouting” (where video footage is prioritised over the need to see the player in person) and meticulous data available from across the globe means that any national team player who stands out from the age of around 15, no matter where they are from, is typically flagged up immediately.
As a result, when it comes to the transfer market, major tournaments are now merely a setting in which final checks are carried out by clubs looking for confirmation that a player is of the required quality to join them. Running the rule over a player at a World Cup — when the pressure is unlike any other in the quest for the most prestigious trophy of them all — is still useful and watching how a player conducts themselves while representing their country in such a scenario offers scouts and club representatives further insight into their character. But, for the most part, clubs are already fully aware of what they are dealing with.
This year’s World Cup, however, offers a few more challenges than normal. Qatar 2022 starts on Nov. 20 (a week after the European domestic season pauses) and ends on Dec. 18 (a week before the Premier League returns on Dec. 26.) With the monthlong January transfer window opening on the 1st of the month, time will be short for clubs to capitalise on what they have learned from players on the pitch. But with international football taking centre-stage for the next month and no domestic fixtures to get in the way, clubs may also have more breathing space to figure out what they want.
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Facing a World Cup in the middle of the European season will already have caused an impact on the general planning of the campaign — especially in terms of how to gauge and pinpoint the fitness level of the players. It’s almost like having a second preseason thrown at you — though the same could be said about the break suffered at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most clubs will be treating the upcoming hiatus as an opportunity to take stock and to tweak or get on with carrying out their priorities ahead of the January window.
The “sounding-out” meetings with agents over players not involved in the World Cup are likely to take place a few weeks earlier than normal. With the customary busy November and pre-Christmas fixture schedule out of the way, clubs will be left to base their judgement on previously collected evidence, paving the way for concrete negotiations to take place imminently. As a result, you may see a few more deals agreed in principle ahead of Jan. 1.
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When it comes to the financial aspect, because of the current economic downturn and the global pandemic over recent years, top European clubs have already had to become more flexible and adopt a higher degree of diligence when it comes to new signings. Yet any potential acquisition on the back of an impressive World Cup performance is likely to come at a huge premium, as a player’s transfer fee will rise with every goal, assist, tackle or save (unless their contract is expiring in 2023.)
January is traditionally not a time to spend lots of money, but clubs may well be pushed into signing cover for injuries, fatigue, or simply taking advantage of an opportunity that otherwise might not have presented itself.
For the players, the tournament’s timing provides a novel element which doesn’t usually apply to the ordinary, yearly scouting cycle, so those headline-grabbers have a unique opportunity to put themselves front-and-centre to get noticed by club owners, presidents and bankrollers who will all have their eyes glued to the action in Qatar.
It has happened before, but history provides a warning that things don’t always work out for the best when you base a transfer on World Cup performance. Here are a few examples of past breakout stars, plus a few of the names who clubs are likely to be watching closely at this tournament.
