Hot favourite ready to atone for shocker and sneaky $101 place chance: Golden Eagle form guide

While Randwick has The Everest, the richest turf race in the world, across town in a city awash with racing money, Rosehill has the second richest one.

It’s the $10 million Golden Eagle – another event with a name which would only a few years ago have been considered rather odd – but which in just four years has become one of the most keenly sought races in the land.

Aside from the money it has a couple of distinguishing features. While the sport’s age-restricted races have traditionally been for ages two and three, this one is for four-year-olds, based on the widely-held view this is the age when thoroughbreds peak.

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Like some other major races at Rosehill, it’s over 1500 metres – the track’s dimensions making it unfeasible to have contests over the more classic mile, or 1600m, journey.

The Golden Eagle mightn’t have anything to do with birds of prey, doesn’t have a long history, and may be another weapon in Sydney’s big money bid to trump Melbourne, but it has quickly grown into a must-watch event.

While Australia’s second-richest race, its special conditions mean it still can’t have Group status – the internationally-recognised top three tiers of races. Mind you, Sydney administrators and any connections reaping its prizemoney, whilst respecting the traditions of this beautiful sport, most likely aren’t all that bothered.

Furthermore, it’s the third leg of the ‘Golden’ series. It starts with the Golden Slipper (1200m) for two-year-olds, the Golden Rose (1400m) for three-year-olds, and now this one, and any horse pulling off the gilt-edged treble earns a $5 million bonus.

It’s on again this Saturday, it’s attracted a tremendous 20-horse field commensurate with its purse, and highlights a Rosehill meeting which also features a $3 million sprint named after last year’s Everest winner, Giga Kick, and which features this year’s one, Think About It.

Yes, its main point may well have been to draw attention away from Flemington’s history-steeped Derby Day on the same afternoon, but after only four runnings, it’s become quite the hot event. Let’s take a look…

WHAT IS IT?

The Golden Eagle, a 1500m race for four-year-olds run at set weights. Males carry 57.5kg, mares 55.5kg. (Northern Hemisphere-born males, of which there are four this year, carry 56.5, for while officially classed as four-year-olds down here, they’re actually six months younger, biologically).

It begins at the start of Rosehill’s back straight, providing a long run of some 400m before the first bend. That gives jockeys a lot of time to find a spot close to the rail, but in a huge 20-horse field like this, some will have to take their medicine and sit wide so as not to be too far from the lead, or else drop way back, giving the leaders a huge start. At Rosehill, it can be devilishly difficult to come from the back, as the track is quite curved from the 800m until you’re in the straight, meaning horses going wide have to cover a lot of extra ground.

So, in a field this size, inside barriers are an advantage, particularly if it’s fine weather and the track isn’t wet. If it’s wet, the inside can become cut up and the wrong place to be. At this stage though, it’s supposed to be mostly fine and sunny up till at least Saturday, when the just-as-reliable-as-racing-tipsters weather bureau says there’s a 50 per cent chance of some rain.

All that said, I Wish I Win came from gate 10 to win last year, with runner-up Fangirl from gate 17. But with that also said, they’ve since proven themselves pretty special horses. Up until last year, the average barrier for the first four runners home in this race had been just six.

From that first bend the field turns down the curved side of the course before rounding the last corner into the long 420-metre home straight. So hopefully, if you’re close to the fence but behind horses around the turn, the gaps should open up in the straight, particularly since the leaders are likely to set a keen pace, meaning they should tire and wobble about in the straight.

The four winners for far have been more or less midfield in the run. So it’s probably inadvisable to be too far back or leading.

WHAT’S IT WORTH?

Ten million dollars!

Winner jags $5.25 mill, there’s a million up for just coming third, and, in keeping with the times, just about every four-year-old wins a prize, with even 17th and 18th “earning” ten grand each. In a nice touch, $150,000 goes to the equine welfare fund, and $100,000 to the Jockey Welfare Fund. And in another nice touch, 10 per cent of all prizemoney allocated goes to charities nominated by horses’ connections (proper, accredited charities, not like “The Boys’ Christmas Fishing Trip Foundation”).

WHEN’S IT ON?

Saturday, 4.45pm. Race 8.

FIRST WINNER: Kolding (a gelding, at $6, from barrier 4, in 2019)

LAST WINNER: I Wish I Win (a gelding, at $8.50, barrier 8)

WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?

At the course in Sydney’s west, or on Channel 7 and Sky Racing. You can listen on radio or follow the day live on foxsports.com.au.

MAIN PLOTLINES

Apart from precious minerals and dodgy businessmen in the ‘80s, Western Australia has the habit, every few years, of producing a sensational galloper. They tend to rack up a picket fence at home – the string of 1s beside their name in the form guide denoting their wins – then venture east to take on the bigger fish.

In modern history there’s been super sprinter Placid Ark, the outstanding mare Arcadia Queen and Northerly, who was possibly Australia’s finest horse between Kingston Town and Makybe Diva.

Now comes a four-year-old mare named Amelia’s Jewel. She was bred by a very colourful WA-style breeder and meat industry magnate named Peter Walsh. He took a holiday to France, visited a stud farm and saw a stallion on the rise named Siyouni.

He was so blown away that when he got home, after “a few bottles of red” one night he was watching a mares’ sale online from England, liked the look of one called Bumbasina, and bought her for about $200,000 with the idea of “sending her to this Siyouni” and importing her to Australia pregnant.

Bumbasina moved to the Margaret River district and had her foal – around the time Siyouni started becoming a super sire – and the result of that mating is Amelia’s Jewel. She won seven of her first eight in Perth, including a Group 1 at her seventh start, and Walsh and the horse’s trainer Simon Miller knew they had something special.

She was then beaten by a lip by a Sydney raider in a new $4 million slot race they have over which, in the era of silly race names, is of course called The Quokka. She then headed east as a four-year-old to win her first two attempts in Melbourne in September, the latter at the Black Caviar-like odds of $1.35.

And then, like when Rocky took a whuppin’ in his story, Amelia’s Jewel’s colours were lowered, and lowered utterly. She had every chance in the G1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield, but faded out in the straight to finish ninth.

She was thoroughly checked out after the race and yet nothing was diagnosed other than that thing horses do sometimes: she had an off day.

Now, the mare has gone to Sydney to tackle the world’s second-richest turf race, the Golden Eagle. She’ll be seeking to atone for that shocker and prove she’s the real deal. But she will have to do it running clockwise for the first time. It’s usually slightly harder for southern horses to adjust to that way of going than northerners going south to run anticlockwise, (perhaps due to suspicions most horses are naturally “left handed” and like to lead off that foreleg).

She’ll might start favourite, but not at odds-on again. She’ll likely be around $4.40, since she’ll have to attain redemption against a crack field of 19 other four-year-olds.

They’re headed by Hawaii Five Oh, the hulking stallion trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, a galloper flying the flag of the non-battlers in John Singleton, Gerry Harvey and Ray Hadley, and who ran sixth in The Everest three weeks ago. He might start favourite, and was around $4.20 through the week.

There’s Kovalica, who’ll be out to restore his reputation as well. Prepared by Winx’s trainer Chris Waller, the gelding looked a superstar in winning the Queensland derby in the winter, but in the spring has run ninth, second and fifth. The latter two were handy runs in top company, but he was a $21 roughie in the latest.

There’s a Japanese dark horse in Obamburumai, who’s won three of five back home and is around the $11 mark, and a New Zealand raider in Legarto, at around $8, who’ll be looking to restore his whole country’s sporting reputation after some World Cuppery went badly wrong earlier this week.

Training giant Chris Waller has no fewer than five starters in the race, or a quarter of the field. They also include Osipenko, who may have slipped under some radars but has been competing against all ages in Group 1 class in his past four starts.

And bizarrely, though beautifully, seemingly all the top chances have drawn good barriers, so hopefully a strong battle can ensue with few hard luck stories.

NOTE: The weather bureau says there’s a 70 per cent chance of rain on Saturday. Their tips are about as reliable as mine, but if it does get soggy, check wet track form.

OTHER MAJOR RACES ON THE DAY

GIGA KICK STAKES, Race 7, 4.00pm, (1300m): A set weights sprint worth $3 million, though it also doesn’t have Group status, named after the previous year’s Everest winner. The idea was it might serve as a consolation prize three weeks after the big one. But in fact the market is headed by the Everest’s latest winner THINK ABOUT IT ($1.75) who’ll be looking to make it $9.2 million earned in just two starts, or about two-and-a-half minutes. His stablemate PRIVATE EYE ($3.70) also backs up, after his Everest third place, while Godolphin gelding CASCADIAN ($8.50) reappears to keep them honest, though he’ll probably find them a bit slick over this trip, especially THINK ABOUT IT, who’s won 11 out of 12, and looks like he could be bound for champion status.

ROSEHILL GOLD CUP, Race 9, 5.20pm (2000m): A $750,000 handicap for three-year-olds and up who like a bit of distance. A fair bit of interest from the favourite, who’s called CANBERRA LEGEND, but is in fact from Newmarket, England. (His dad is a successful sire over there simply going by the name of Australia, y’see?). He’s had only six starts but has won two and places in some good Group company. Other chances include STROKE OF LUCK ($6), RENAISSANCE WOMAN ($7.50), NO COMPROMISE ($8.50) and DIAMIL ($8.50).

THE FOUR PILLARS, Race 6, 3.20pm (1500m): Another race with a daft name, but, showing what’s been happening with Sydney racing of late, it’s worth $500,000 and it’s for horses with a benchmark rating of 68, which is pretty modest. For context, one co-favourite. BACKROWER, came seventh in a Rosehill benchmark 72 last start, pocketing $3,500, and if he wins this he’ll claim $287,000.

THE GOLDEN EAGLE FIELD

1. HAWAII FIVE OH (Starting gate: 4) BlueBet Approx odds win/place $6/$2.25. FOR: Has the highest benchmark rating (their internationally-recognised figure based on previous performances) at 111. Started to shine in the winter winning two 1400m G3 races and has continued to blossom this spring. He was trained for sprints shorter than this so he could contest The Everest last start, running a solid sixth. Start before, also over 1200m, he very nearly beat subsequent Everest winner and super-sprinter Think About It. He’ll love the extra 300m here and has a gun, in-form jockey aboard in Nash Rawiller, and has a great inside starting gate. Can perform on soft or dry. Form stable in Gai Waterhouse-Adrian Bott, who lead the Sydney trainers’ premiership – even leading Chris Waller, who’s won like a hundred in a row! AGAINST: Not a lot. If it rains a lot, he doesn’t like heavy going. And the slight doubt, as with any horse who’s just been in a big one, is the question of whether he peaked on his grand final day, for The Everest. Strong chance.

2. ATTRITION (19) $26/$6.00. FOR: Impressive stallion who’s bloomed this spring, with a G2 second in September followed two starts later by a G1 success in Caulfield’s Toorak Handicap, also over 1600m. Fact he’s run out that distance so strongly, and was tried at 1800m the start before, augurs well for a big-field/high-pressure 1500m here. Astute young trainer – from a family full of them – in Mitch Freedman, and a solid young jockey in Beau Mertens. And his sire, Churchill, appears to be going places, and not just on the beaches, and in the streets. Equal third-top rating at 109. AGAINST: Having first clockwise run. And has drawn a killer barrier, after which his odds blew way out from about $15. Will likely have to go way back from there and need a lot of luck in the straight. Place best.

3. PERICLES (1) $13/$4.00 FOR: From the racing empire of Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed, Godolphin, which is always strong. It means his trainer is James Cummings, who’s been in good form this spring, and he has experienced Melbourne ride Ben Melham aboard. Likes all sorts of going, has performed to 2000m, so this distance is no problem, and won back-to-back two and three starts ago, over 1400m, against open company. Equal third-top rating at 109. Should have a nice, forward spot from gate one. AGAINST: Last start third over 1300m at Randwick could have been more impressive. He had to use a bit of petrol to take up a forward spot from gate 10, but still faded in the last 50m, a bit alarmingly considering the pressure will be on in this big field. Place best.

4. GOLDEN MILE (18) $29/$6.50 FOR: Another from the supercharged Godolphin stable and James Cummings, and the horse has been a big-race performer. He took the prestigious Caulfield Guineas last spring, then won three starts back in a 1300m G2 for his second win at this track. Smart young jockey in Zac Lloyd. AGAINST: Surrounding that win three starts ago have been finishes of ninth, 15th, third and ninth. The third was in the G1 Epsom, so fair play, but the point is he’s been mixing his form quite alarmingly considering the quality of this large field. They’ve taken the blinkers back off again this time, which hints at a bit of desperation. And he’s drawn a bad gate. Rough place best.

5. KOVALICA (16) $10/$3.30. FOR: Very talented gelding with a master trainer in Chris Waller, who won the first Golden Eagle with – if you’re superstitious – another horse with similar letters, called Kolding. Won six of his first nine, including two big ones in Brisbane’s winter carnival, over 1600m and in the G1 Queensland Derby (2400m), that had him earmarked as a superstar. AGAINST: Slight query over whether this race is long enough for him. His Derby win had him pencilled down as a stayer, but instead he’s been steered towards the riches of this 1500m event. He finished a strong second at G1 level two runs back in the Epsom Handicap before a fifth in the G1 King Charles (1600m). However, both time he came from well back, and the fear is this is 100m shorter, so the post might come up too quickly. And to come from the back at Rosehill can take a special horse. It’s a hard place to do it, because its curved side into the home straight makes those going wide cover a lot of extra ground. On top of that, he’s drawn poorly. Place best.

6. REDEINER (3) $34/$7.00. FOR: Another from the powerful Waller stable, and this one beat Kovalica in the G1 Epsom to cap a four-race winning streak. Jockey Kathy O’Hara is in strong form, and was something of an early trailblazer for female jockeys and no one would deserve such a big win more, if you like a sentimental punt. Good inside gate. AGAINST: Last start was pretty poor. Granted it was under weight-for-age conditions in the G1 King Charles (1600m), and this gelding is probably better suited to handicaps or set weights against his own age, and this race is the latter. But still, he led that day over 1600m and weakened right out to finish 10th. Hard to have confidence after that, plus you fear he peaked for his big grand final in the Epsom and that this is an afterthought. Prefer others.

7. OSIPENKO (8) $13/$4.00. FOR: Another with the Waller touch. Likes this, his home track, with two wins and a second from four starts here. Not only has fitness on his side after four runs this prep, but they’ve all been against top-class G1 company, and he returns to 4YOs only here, and get the blinkers added, which should sharpen him up. The drop back from 2000m last start to 1500m here, especially with almost a month between runs, is another plus, as this stallion should be firing when others are tiring. Handles all sorts of going, drawn well, for a competent rider in Jason Collett. AGAINST: His last was disappointing when 10th in Flemington’s Turnbull Stakes, over 2000m. There wasn’t a distance doubt, as he’d won over 2000m in the autumn. But perhaps he’s been trained more with this race and the drop-down in trip in mind, especially since the start before he was 3rd in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) behind Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood, who were close-up second and third in last Saturday’s Cox Plate. Strong chance.

8. STRAIT ACER (7) $51/$9.00. FOR: In sharp form with three straight wins followed by a 0.8 length second in a key lead-up to this, the Silver Eagle (1300m). Came from the back that day, so the extra trip will suit. Trained by astute young conditioner Ed Cummings, grandson of Bart. Has Tyler Schiller aboard. He’s an apprentice jockey but is in scintillating form, and leads the Sydney premiership – even leading James McDonald! Plus he’s got a good barrier. AGAINST: Has risen in class very quickly, from a benchmark 88 win two runs back, which mean he was a $41 bolter in that Silver Eagle second. Still, horses can’t read odds. Because of his emergence this campaign, however, he has been kept going for a while now to take his once-unlikely place in this field, with six runs this prep. Will seven be one too many? Place best.

9. COMMUNIST (12) $101/$23.00. FOR: Good trainer in Michael Freedman and jockey Koby Jennings has a 100% success rate in this race, with one ride for one win, on Colette in its second running in 2020. Won a major 1600m race last autumn in the G1 Randwick Guineas. AGAINST: Has mysteriously lost all form this campaign with an 11th, and 11th and a 15th. Tricky gate. Can’t recommend on that.

10. COIN TOSS (17) $101/$26. FOR: The Waterhouse-Bott touch and a fine, experienced jockey in Brett Prebble, and has blinkers applied for this run. This gelding had his first nine runs in Singapore, winning four of them including in black type level in his last two starts there, which convinced connections to ask whether he might be good enough for Australia. AGAINST: The answer, on paper, would be no. His only run here was a ninth of 14 in the Silver Eagle at Randwick, when he was unwanted in betting at $41. On closer inspection, he did make some decent ground in the straight from well back on that occasion. But again, he might find that tougher at Rosehill, and he’ll likely get way back from his wide barrier. Rough place hope only.

11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (10) $101/$23. FOR: Queensland gelding who looked a potential star in the winter with four wins in a row capped by the G3 Winx Guineas on the Sunshine Coast. The way he was winning led to all sort of offers to buy the horse, mostly from Hong Kong, but the owners said they’d rather enjoy the ride. AGAINST: That ride has been fairly uncomfortable since. He’s come to Sydney for two starts at Randwick – a 10th over 1200m and a fifth over 1600m. Still the 1200m was always going to be too short. True, he could have been more impressive in that fifth placing, but it was stepping up 400m when second-up from a spell, and a lot of horses don’t fire second-up. He’ll be fitter for that, and $101 does seem a long way over the odds for a horse whose ability was so clearly on show last campaign. Wouldn’t be shocking to see him run first four, and has a decent middle barrier. Does have an inexperienced young rider in Jaden Lloyd stepping onto the big stage though.

12. OBAMBURAMAI (2) $10/$3.30. FOR: Japanese raider who comes with a big reputation, and a solid 102 rating. Five runs for three wins back home, including in a G3 over 1600m two runs back. Then stepped up to a G1 over the same trip for three-year-olds last start, and was a decent 1.5 length third of 17 after jumping from gate 10. Japanese horses have been sweeping big races around the world lately. Perfect barrier and a top local jockey in Josh Parr. AGAINST: The obvious one is he’s a northern hemisphere horse, so he’s classed as a four-year-old but is biologically only three-and-a-half, as they’re born in the northern spring. They are given a 1kg weight allowance because of this, but it’s still a tough ask, as they’ve had six months’ less development as their rivals in this race, and horses generally hit their peak aged four. So, he’d have to be good, to switch hemispheres and seasons, and beat the cream of the Australian four-year-old crop. But they say he is, and his trainer will have taken all of that into account. Still, it’s a bit tricky to line up the Japanese form, so a lot of trust is involved if you’re backing him. Each way.

13. NEW ENDEAVOUR (13) $81/17. FOR: Another for Waterhouse-Bott and jockey Adam Hyeronimus is in strong form at present, having won a G1 last Saturday. AGAINST: Another in that northern hemisphere 3YO age/weight bracket. And his best performance before being imported was a second in a G2 in England. And his first Australian run was pretty ordinary, an 11th in the 1300m Silver Slipper, even considering the tough run he had from a wide gate. He’ll be fitter for that, but hard to have in this field.

14. AGE OF KINGS (11) $51/$9.00. FOR: Another European import (with that same weight allowance) and was a winner over 1408m at the Royal Ascot carnival in G3 company in June, his second win in seven starts. Has accomplished, experienced jockey Craig Williams aboard, and has the Waller polish. Unlike New Endeavour, he hasn’t had a run here to blot his copybook yet. AGAINST: Has, however, had two barrier trials here where he showed precious little. Those practice races are often not the safest of guides, but in his last one he was last of six, and no doubt the stable will have wanted to see him extended. Plus, in his only G1 back home he was 10th of 11 in the Irish 2000 Guineas (1609m). With European stayers coming here, we have every right to be fearful. But Australian horses can hold their own anywhere in the world from 1200m to 1600m. Prefer to see what he can do before whacking any hard-earned on him.

15. GALERON (14) $126/$26. FOR: Interesting in that this is an English horse who’s not been transferred to an Australian stable, but is here for a hit-and-run visit for this race. He’s prepared by Charlie Hills, who has a strong reputation for knowing what he’s doing. Has Regan Bayliss in the saddle, who goes alright. AGAINST: We must applaud Hills for launching the grand adventure, but you’d want some better form behind you recently. He’s had two big tests in his past three runs and ran last both times, both over 1600m. Can’t have him on that in his his first trip out of England/Ireland against rivals like this.

16. AMELIA’S JEWEL (5) $4.40/$1.85. FOR: Is one of the most exciting horses in the land, with nine wins from 12 starts, including a G1 over 1800m in Perth last December when a 3YO filly up against older horses. Fine big-race rider aboard in Damian Lane, and successful Perth trainer in Simon Miller. Having won from 1000m to 1800m, she could be a very special horse. Drawn well. She will likely go back but Lane can stay off the fence, lessening the traffic he’d have to weave through in the home straight. AGAINST: She does like to settle at the back, and again it can be hard winning from there at Rosehill. But at least it’s a big field and the pressure will be on up front, so we can expect the leaders to tire late on. But the other big question is that last start flop when ninth over 1600m at Caulfield in the G1 Toorak. It would take some forgiveness to back her, especially in her first run the Sydney way of going. But again, she might be special. Undeniable chance.

17. RUTHLESS DAME (20) $23/$5.50 FOR: Quality mare from the top Maher-Eustace stable, who’s the second-highest rated horse in the field, on 110. Has already won a G1 as a 3YO filly up against older mares, over 1200m in Adelaide last May. Showed she was back to top form with a very narrow second in The Invitation (1400m) at Randwick last Saturday, a $2 million race which drew a G1-standard field of mares. Has Sam Clipperton in the saddle, on a wave after his recent Everest win. AGAINST: The quick back-up from last Saturday. Had a tough run from a wide gate under 59kg, and that was against her own sex. Takes on the stallions and geldings here, but does carry 2kg less than them, and despite the quick back-up, you don’t question this stable’s methods that easily. However, she has drawn the outside gate, and she’s not known for racing at the rear of the field. Place best.

18. LEGARTO (6) $8/$2.75. FOR: Outstanding NZ mare who’s won nine of seven, going both directions and including beating males – in the prestigious G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington in her only other Australian start. Her dad (Proisir) has become one of the hottest stallions in Australasia in the past 18 months or so. Has been in form this campaign with a first-up second in a 1400m G1 and win over 1600m in black type class. Has a fine big-race rider in Michael Dee, who won at Flemington on her, and has drawn perfectly in gate six. Another 109 rater. Wins in wet or dry. AGAINST: Not a huge amount, but the possible worry is getting back in the run – as she did at Flemington – in a huge field at Rosehill, in case she has to come wide from the 600m on, or else Dee has to weave through a lot of traffic in the straight. Definite chance.

19. VIENNA PRINCESS (9) $26/$7.50. FOR: Has the Waller touch and tuned up with a her second straight win, in a key lead-up in the Silver Eagle over 1300m, flying home from eighth on the turn to win convincingly. Has the experienced Kerrin McEvoy aboard, buoyed by winning that $2m Invitation last Saturday. Winning form is good form. AGAINST: Best form hasn’t quite ben in fields the quality of this one. Her win two starts back was in restricted grade (benchmark 88), for example. Still, the Silver Eagle was a good run. Place best.

20. RAZETA (15) $301/$76. FOR: Not a great deal, but did make some ground last start from well back when eighth in the Silver Eagle. Has two wins from two starts in heavy going, so if it buckets down, this mare might come into place calculations. AGAINST: It probably won’t rain enough. Finished 13th of 14 in a Newcastle G3 before her Silver Eagle run, and while she made ground that day, there are stronger form races leading into this. Wide gate. Prefer others.

TIPS: 1, OSIPENKO; 2. Amelia’s Jewel; 3. Legarto; 4. Knight’s Choice.