It was a miserable weekend for the Premier League’s bottom clubs, but it only made one of the most fascinating relegation battles in years more intriguing.
The bottom eight clubs are separated by just 11 points as the Premier League enters the final stretch. For most sides, just seven games remain – seven chances to ensure survival in the world’s greatest league.
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Making this race to the finish even more thrilling is the historic nature of the clubs in strife.
It marks a significant change from standard yo-young of teams between the first and second tiers. For example, this year two of the promoted teams Fulham and Bournemouth were back in the top flight after just one and two years out. Two of the teams they replaced – Watford and Norwich City – were both relegated after just one year in the top flight.
This year, things could be very different.
Rock-bottom Southampton has spent 11 consecutive seasons in the Premier League, but this one is almost guaranteed to be their last if they can’t find a late-season miracle.
Second-last is Leicester, who won the league in 2015-16 and finished fifth twice since then, as well as lifting the FA Cup in 2021. They’ve been in the top flight since 2014-15 but now seem destined for the drop.
Another established club at risk of relegation is 17th-placed Everton, a club that has been in England’s top flight since 1954-55 – the second-longest stint in the first division behind Arsenal, who were last relegated in 1912-13 and returned to the first tier in 1919-20.
And in the hunt for survival is West Ham, also in their 11th straight season in the league but suffering a dramatic fall from grace after finishing seventh last campaign.
The historic nature of so many of the clubs at the bottom end of the table has made this a relegation rumble for the ages.
Here’s the state of play as the home stretch approaches.
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12TH: CRYSTAL PALACE — 36 points
It might seem bizarre to put a team as high as 12th in a relegation discussion. But the only reason Palace isn’t in huge danger of being relegated is their immense form in recent weeks. The return of Roy Hodgson to the dugout has delivered a huge bounce. Three straight wins, with nine goals scored and just two conceded. Yes, all three have been against bottom sides (Leicester, Leeds, Southampton), but those relegation ‘six pointers’ have given Palace a crucial boost in points as well as confidence.
After three straight games against fellow strugglers, their next three matches are also against teams below them – Everton, Wolves, and West Ham.
Win those, and they’ll be flying well clear of danger.
Lose, and their relegation fears could come back even stronger than before. The most interesting part of their final run of games is their season-ender – hosting Nottingham Forest in a match that could have huge implications for the currently second-bottom side.
Remaining games: Everton (h), Wolves (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Nottingham Forest (h).
13TH: WOLVES — 34 points
Despite sitting bottom of the table at Christmas, Wolves have climbed off the canvas and are sitting pretty in 13th.
Julen Lopetegui has overseen a remarkable reversal in fortunes at Molineux with impressive wins over the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Brentford in the new year.
Given Wolves have proven capable of beating some of the Premier League’s big boys, it should give the side plenty of confidence given they face four teams in the top seven before the season is done.
But they also encounter a number of relegation rivals in the final stretch, giving them a chance to put further distance between them and the dreaded drop.
Two wins is all it will take for Wolves to get to the magical 40-point mark and given some of the teams they have to face, it’s hard to see them capitulating from this point onwards.
Remaining games: Leicester (a), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Aston Villa (h), Man Utd (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)
14TH: BOURNEMOUTH — 33 points
There’s rollercoaster seasons and then there is Bournemouth’s 2022/23 campaign.
The Cherries beat Aston Villa on the opening day of the season and then went on to lose their next three games, albeit they were against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, with the latter a 9-0 defeat that cost Scott Parker his job.
Gary O’Neil took over and guided Bournemouth to a six-game unbeaten run where they rose as high as 10th, but they’d go on to tumble down the ladder with two wins from their next 15 games.
Sitting rock-bottom on the table, many wouldn’t have been surprised if Bournemouth had no more punches left to throw.
But O’Neil, who is in his first managerial gig, has revived the Cherries as they have won four of their last six games.
Based on table positions, Bournemouth have an extremely favourable run to the end of the season as they face just one team in the top 10: Manchester United.
Bournemouth’s destiny is very much in their own hands and based off their impressive recent scalps of Liverpool, Fulham and Tottenham, the Cherries’ second wind might be enough to preserve their Premier League status for another season.
Remaining games: West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a).
15TH: WEST HAM — 31 points
With the quality at their disposal – including England midfielder Declan Rice – it is immensely surprising to see the Hammers struggle so badly this season.
Add to that the kind of gutsy effort they delivered on the weekend, fighting back from two goals down to draw against league-leading Arsenal, and the Hammers feel like a team that should be comfortably in the top-half of the ladder.
Last year they finished seventh in the league and earned qualification to the Europa Conference League – the third tier of continental competition beneath the Champions and Europa leagues.
Balancing the additional minutes and travel of European competition has proven a tricky task for many teams, and that’s been the case for the Hammers this season.
Nevertheless, they remain alive in that competition, and will next travel to Gent for the second leg of their quarter-final this Friday morning AEST, with the score currently 1-1 on aggregate.
And their recent form in the league has been strong as well – two wins and two draws from their last five, plus a game in hand to boot.
There have been tough moments, like when Newcastle put five past them earlier this month.
But even including those kinds of big defeats, they have still conceded just 41 goals this season – fewer than the likes of fifth-placed Tottenham or top-10 pair Brentford and Fulham.
After Bournemouth next up, they’ve got a very tricky run: the Reds, Palace, then City and United. Things could turn very concerning very quickly.
Their final two matches, against Leeds and Leicester, could easily end up being win-or-go-down encounters. Bring it on!
Remaining games:Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man City (a), Man United (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)
16TH: LEEDS UNITED — 29 points
When legendary college football coach Bear Bryant coined the phrase “offence sells tickets, defence wins championships,” someone evidently forgot to tell Leeds United.
Granted, the Yorkshire outfit aren’t gunning for the title, but Bryant’s quote is still relevant when you’re in a relegation dogfight and you’ve just shipped 11 goals in two games.
Leeds’ midfield and backline had more holes in it than a block of Swiss cheese as Crystal Palace and Liverpool ran riot in 5-1 and 6-1 victories respectively.
The losses also consigned Leeds to the worst defensive record in the league having conceded 60 goals all season long.
Leeds also had the third-worst goal difference last season but were saved by a last-day win against Brentford, so these problems at the back aren’t exactly an isolated incident.
Javi Gracia must find a way to tighten up the Premier League’s leakiest backline as they search for their first clean sheet since a 1-0 win against last-placed Southampton on February 26.
That might be a tall ask given they face three teams in the top five in the final four games of the season, but if they can at least stem the tide of goals at the back, it’ll give them a fighting chance.
Remaining games: Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h)
17TH: EVERTON — 27 points
The Toffees shipped three goals to Fulham on the weekend and looked utterly devoid of confidence.
Their next three games could define their chances – they face the resurgent Palace before Newcastle, before a massive clash with Leicester. Last year, they pulled off a great escape. Former Burnley boss Sean Dyche replaced Frank Lampard in January in a bid to provide stable, no-nonsense leadership to the struggling Toffees.
But with Burnley already securing their promotion to the top flight with a sublime Championship campaign under Man City great Vincent Kompany, it could well come at the cost of Dyche’s Everton.
Failure to stay in the English top flight would mean Everton loses its membership card to an exclusive club of teams to have never been relegated from the Premier League and that’s an honour, if you can call it that, Dyche will not want to be associated with.
Remaining games: Crystal Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), Man City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)
18TH: NOTTINGHAM FOREST — 27 points
Ahead of this season, the promoted side made a splash in the transfer window with a radical squad overhaul, bringing in a British-record 21 new players.
They followed it up with even more transfers in January, taking them to over 30 arrivals since their promotion!
It was a high risk strategy – but as Fulham discovered a few years earlier, it can have disastrous consequences.
Forest won just one of their first 11 games as their new-look squad failed to gel together.
Manager Steve Cooper somehow survived the sack and Forest slowly found their feet to slowly climb out of the relegation zone and up to 13th after solid performances between November and early February.
However, they’ve slipped right back down after failing to win in ten games since February 6. With some of their relegation rivals enjoying a new-manager bounce after sacking their head coaches, Cooper once again appears on the brink of the sack.
A trio of tricky games looms – Liverpool at Anfield, Brighton, then away to Brentford. Three losses would very likely see Cooper punted in a last-ditch bid for survival.
If he does stay around – and if he does keep the team up – it would be a remarkable achievement.
As veteran coach Sam Allardyce told the No Tippy Tappy Football podcast last month: “If Nottingham Forest survive relegation, Steve Cooper has definitely done the best job of all the managers in the Premier League this season.
“What becomes difficult in terms of building team spirit is having too many players. Most managers don’t have enough. What they don’t have enough of is quality, and what they don’t want is quantity.
“It’s counter-productive when you have so many players. Not only because most of the players aren’t going to achieve the heights that you need, but you also have a number of players that aren’t involved in the squad that become antagonists and become your problem.”
Remaining games: Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a)
19TH: LEICESTER CITY — 25 points
Leicester have bounced from woeful relegation locks, to safe and sound, and all the way back down into the red zone in a rollercoaster campaign. They haven’t won in nine games now, including three since Brendan Rodgers was sacked. But they’ve got a crucial few games ahead – facing Wolves, Leeds then Everton in a three-game run that could make or break their survival hopes.
With Fulham, Liverpool, and Newcastle after that – all top-half-teams – they could be done and dusted even before juicy final-round clash with 15th-placed West Ham.
Considering the Foxes were Premier League champions just seven years ago and made it to the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League last season, it would represent an almighty fall from grace.
Remaining games: Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), West Ham (h).
20TH: SOUTHAMPTON — 23 points
The Saints are winless in six, and have been rooted to the bottom of the table since Boxing Day last year.
Using three different managers this season hasn’t seemed to solve their problems – a lack of cutting edge up front and giving away cheap goals at the other end.
Their 11th-straight season in the Premier League might be their last.
Remaining games: Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Nottingham (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)
