The NRL’s blowout era is officially coming to a close with new data revealing more matches being in the balance into the final 20 minutes than at any other time in the six-again era.
Just three weeks out from the finals series, the NRL has arrested the alarming frequency of one-sided games from last season which prompted viewers to switch off with many results decided at half-time.
Champion Data findings show an extra 10 per cent of matches have had a margin of 12 points or less heading into the final quarter during this season (70.83 per cent) as opposed to last (60.42 per cent), which has helped the NRL retain its position as Australia’s No.1 television sport.
The average winning margin has also significantly decreased, with games decided by an average of 15.27 this season before the start of round 23 as opposed to the whopping 18.29 during the 2021 regular season when a number of try and point-scoring records were shattered.
The 2022 average winning margin has even dipped below 2020 (15.45) when the NRL introduced the set re-start rule during the COVID-19 shutdown of the competition.
But the NRL’s decision to peel back the six-again parameters this year – teams are now given a full penalty for infringements committed while in possession inside their own 40 metres – has helped restore equilibrium and stopped the runaway momentum of teams benefiting from multiple set re-starts.
Jason Taumalolo and the Cowboys are vying for second in a tight finals race.Credit:Getty
“Not only are the final margins down this season, in most cases games that do blow out are doing so much later,” NRL head of football Graham Annesley said. “The bottom line is fans are seeing much more competitive games for longer periods of time.
“There are probably many factors that have contributed, but I have said previously that some teams adapted to the rule changes over recent years better than others, and I expected there would be a catch-up factor over time. I think we are now seeing the results of that.”
The statistics come even despite the struggles of the Titans, Tigers, Knights, Warriors and Bulldogs, who have all long been out of finals contention. The Sea Eagles and Dragons also joined them last week, leaving just the Raiders as the only team capable of vaulting into the top eight from outside the top eight.
But a scramble for ladder positions among the finals-bound teams will keep interest high in the final fortnight of the season despite the runaway success of minor premiers Penrith.
The Sharks are circling a top-two finish and a week-one home final alongside the Panthers, although the NRL is yet to decide whether they will be allowed to play at PointsBet Stadium if they can leap North Queensland on the ladder.
Coach Craig Fitzgibbon is expected to have a job long after his current three-year contract as he vies for Dally M Coach of the Year honours in his first year of being in the job.
“I’ve asked [the club] for a 20-minute extension,” Fitzgibbon joked. “Getting through year one, three years seems a long way away. I do enjoy [chairman Steve Mace’s] support, but I also know in this industry it’s [about] results.”
Stream the NRL Premiership 2022 live and free on 9Now.
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