Giant call as top prospect may not go No.1; Bomber gamble to shape top 10: AFL Draft Talking Pts

We’re just a week away from the next crop of potential AFL superstars living their dream, and finding out where they’ll be playing footy at the top level.

The 2022 AFL national draft is being held across two nights, with coverage starting on Monday, November 28 from 7pm AEDT.

The draft will be telecast live on Fox Footy (Channel 504) — the only place to watch the picks as they’re announced on TV — as well as streaming on Kayo Sports.

Watch the 2022 AFL Draft on Fox Footy and Kayo from 7pm EDT on Monday November 28. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT WORK?

All 18 clubs earn draft picks, which are based on the reverse finishing order from the previous AFL season. These picks can be traded up to one year in advance, while some picks are also given out as compensation for departed free agents.

On draft night, the teams select in order, adding the best young or mature-aged players that aren’t already on AFL lists.

The only exceptions are when draft picks are traded on the night, as well as when bids on father-son and academy players that are linked to certain clubs are made. Those clubs can then choose to match the bid made by their rival, using draft points, to acquire the player.

HOW DOES THE AFL DRAFT BIDDING SYSTEM WORK?

The AFL has created the Draft Value Index, which is a system that allocates a points value to the first 73 picks in the draft.

It essentially means clubs that have existing links to draftees, either via their Academy or father-son eligibility, must ‘pay’ to secure these players via multiple picks and give rival clubs the chance to bid on these players.

For clubs to secure their linked talent, they must pay and match a bid by using the draft picks/points they already hold. If they don’t have enough points at the time, they can enter draft deficit, which means their hand at the following year’s draft will take a hit. If the club opts not to match, the player goes to the club who made the bid.

WHO ARE THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE DRAFT?

The 2022 Draft is stacked full of top-end Victorian talent, with the first five picks tipped to be from either the Metro and Country side. Plus there’s the odd father-son recruit set to shuffle the deck inside the first round on Monday night.

There’s no doubt the name Will Ashcroft is one to remember, with the Lions’ father-son selection tipped to walk into Brisbane’s starting 22 for next season. But whether he goes pick one or two remains up in the air, with the Lions stacking their draft hand to ready themselves to match a bid on the rising midfield star. Aaron Cadman is the other top talent reportedly vying for the number one draft spot, with GWS keen to add the forward/winger likened to Cats premiership star, and former Giant Jeremy Cameron.

Ashcroft’s Vic Metro teammates in George Wardlaw, Elijah Tsatas, Harry Sheezel, Cam Mackenzie and Matt Jefferson are all looming as probable top 10 picks.

Sheezel and Jefferson are the other forwards expected to go in the top end of the draft after Cadman, with the latter making recruiters take notice with a seven-goal haul against WA. Sheezel though has the flexibility of both forward and midfield, and is a good size for both at 185cm.

Geelong junior Jhye Clark looms as Cats’ likely target with the pick 7 that snapped up in the Jack Bowes deal with the Gold Coast, but whether he’s still available that far down the order remains unknown.

Clark’s fellow Vic country teammates Bailey Humphrey and Oliver Hollands are also tipped to go on the first draft night.

WA has a host of talent set to be snapped up on the first night, with West Coast sliding down the draft order in a bid to get two bites at the first round draft cherry. Ed Allan, the son of ex-Docker Ben looms large, while mid/defender Reuben Ginbey, midfielder Elijah Hewett and defender Jedd Busslinger are also early contenders.

Mid/forward Mattaes Phillipou remains South Australia’s top draft hope with the son of former Bulldog Sam expected to go in the first round.

WHAT ARE THE BIG STORYLINES FOR THE DRAFT?

Will GWS force Brisbane’s hand with the first pick?

Brisbane’s father/son prospect Will Ashcroft is widely regarded the best player in this year’s draft crop, but there’s reports his won’t be the first name read out. The Giants have the prized first pick after their mega-trade deal involving Port Adelaide, West Coast and North Melbourne. But instead of calling Ashcroft out first – and effectively forcing the Lions to cough up a host of picks to points match the Giants’ bid – GWS are tipped to turn to Aaron Cadman as their first selection. Cadman has been likened to a young Jeremy Cameron – who the Giants drafted back in 2010 as an under age selection before the club’s first season in the AFL. There’s reports the Giants want to be able to market Cadman as the number one pick in a tough AFL industry in Sydney. But it wouldn’t be the first time GWS has called out a draftee, knowing that player was a father-son selection for another club. In last year’s draft, the Giants opted for Sam Darcy at pick two and forced the Western Bulldogs to match that bid. That bid came after North Melbourne went for Jason Horne-Francis with pick one – bypassing any points-matching drama. Gold Coast then opted for Collingwood father-sonNick Daicos with pick four, and made Collingwood cough up a host of picks.

Lions first team into AFLW Grand Final! | 02:05

Do clubs get caught up in the go-home factor?

Jason Horne-Francis lasted just one year at North Melbourne, with the South Australian teen failing to live up to the club’s lofty hopes for him as pick one. Melbourne’s prized pick 3 from the 2019 draft, Luke Jackson, has returned home to WA to play for Fremantle. Of the deals done in the 2022 trade period, more than a dozen involved players heading back to their home state or club, including Izak Rankine, Tanner Bruhn and Bobby Hill. GWS footy boss Jason McCartney has spoken about the struggles club like GWS have when drafting players, given the looming go-home factor. “When you’re an interstate club and the draft board is predominantly, at the top end, looks like it’s littered with Victorian talent, you’ve got some risk there,” he said on Trade Radio. “If there’s apprehension about a player right from the word go about making the move interstate and they may go home, you just can’t take the risk unfortunately … Everyone can throw up the players and we love all the players that have been talked about but there’s some we can’t pick. That’s the reality.” West Coast, who sit this year with their biggest draft bounty in more than a decade, are already interested in a number of WA hopefuls and opted to slide down the draft order to double their chances in the first round.

Do the Bombers boast the pick to swing draft plans?

It’s widely believed the first four picks will be used to snare Will Ashcroft, Aaron Cadman, Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw. But in what order remains the surprise for draft night with GWS to kick off proceedings. North Melbourne will be taking two of those players while Brisbane will get Ashcroft as a father-son. But Essendon loom as the draft game changer with what’s currently pick four – to be pick five once the Lions jump up to snare Ashcroft. There’s reports Essendon are open to a draft night trade that would see them pushed down the order – but still able to snap up South Australian Mattaes Phillipou. With Adelaide trading away their early pick for Izak Rankine and Port Adelaide giving up their first pick in the trade for Jason Horne-Francis, Essendon may be able to slide down and still secure Phillipou. Bombers footy boss Josh Mahoney was at Melbourne when they frequently tried to add multiple top-10 picks, rather than one higher selection. Complicating Essendon’s draft focus is potential bids on father-son prospect Alwyn Davey Jnr. Both Davey Jnr and twin brother Jayden are hoping to land at the Bombers for 2023 and beyond. But Essendon is hoping to secure players with their first two picks before having to match a bid on Davey Jnr. Should Essendon slide down the draft, it puts Geelong a step closer to securing local talent Jhye Clark. The Cats made no secret of their desire to jump up the draft order, and got to pick seven by taking on the hefty salary of ex-Suns defender Jack Bowesin the trade process.

Bombers star coming out of retirement! | 00:25

WHO ARE THE ELIGIBLE ACADEMY AND FATHER-SON PROSPECTS?

Father-Son nominations

Adelaide: Max Michalanney (Norwood, son of Jim)

Brisbane: Will Ashcroft (Sandringham Dragons, son of Marcus), Jaspa Fletcher (Lions Academy, son of Adrian), Darryl McDowell-White Jnr (Brisbane VFL, son of Darryl), Noah Bradshaw (Murray Bushrangers, son of Daniel), Casey Voss (Sturt, son of Michael)

Carlton: Darcy Hogg (Northern Knights, son of Matthew), Dane Whitnall (Calder Cannons, son of Lance)

Collingwood: Nicky Christian (Sandringham Dragons, son of Michael)

Essendon: Alwyn Davey Jnr (Oakleigh Chargers, son of Alwyn), Jayden Davey (Oakleigh Chargers, son of Alwyn), Josh Misiti (Calder Cannons, son of Joe)

Fremantle: Jaren Carr (South Fremantle, son of Matthew)

Geelong: Osca Riccardi (Geelong Falcons, son of Peter)

Hawthorn: Jerome Lawrence (Oakleigh Chargers, son of Stephen)

North Melbourne: Cooper Harvey (Northern Knights, son of Brent)

Port Adelaide: Will Francou (North Adelaide, son of Josh), Harper Montgomery (North Adelaide, son of Brett)

Sydney: Indhi Kirk (Sydney Swans VFL, son of Brett)

Western Bulldogs: Billy Kolyniuk (Western Jets, son of Steven)

Next Generation Academy nominations (can only be matched from Pick 41 onwards)

Adelaide: Isaac Keeler

Essendon: Anthony Munkara

Collingwood: Yuyu Ashwin

Fremantle: Jasper Scaife, Josh Draper, Conrad Williams, Chase Bourne

Geelong: Ted Clohesy

Hawthorn: Cooper Vickery, Josh Bennetts

Melbourne: Finn Emile-Brennan, Kyah Farris-White

Port Adelaide: Nathan Barkla

St Kilda: Cameron Mackenzie

West Coast: Tyrell Dewar

Northern Academy nominations

Brisbane: Shadeau Brain

Gold Coast: Lloyd Johnston, Brinn Little, Jared Eckersley, Beau Tedcastle

GWS: Harry Rowston, Nick Madden, Luke Lawrence

Sydney: Will Edwards

WHAT IS THE AFL DRAFT 2022 ORDER?

See below, featuring the pick, club and then the draft points attached to the selection.

Note: With live-trading, the draft order is subject to change.

Round 1

1. GWS (from North Melbourne)

2. North Melbourne (from West Coast)

3. North Melbourne (from GWS)

4. Essendon

5. Gold Coast (from Adelaide)

6. Hawthorn

7. Geelong (from Gold Coast)

8. West Coast (from Port Adelaide)

9. St Kilda

10. Carlton

11. Western Bulldogs

12. West Coast (from GWS)

13. Melbourne (from Fremantle)

14. Sydney (tied to Melbourne)

15. GWS (from Brisbane)

16. Collingwood

17. Sydney

18. GWS (from Geelong)

Round 2

19. GWS (from Richmond)

20. West Coast

21. Western Bulldogs (from Brisbane)

22. Essendon

23. North Melbourne (from Adelaide)

24. Hawthorn

25. Collingwood (from Geelong)

26. West Coast (tied to Port Adelaide)

27. Collingwood (from Melbourne)

28. St Kilda

29. Carlton

30. Fremantle (from Western Bulldogs)

31. GWS (from Richmond)

32. St Kilda (tied to Fremantle from Gold Coast)

33. Port Adelaide (from Melbourne)

34. Brisbane

35. Brisbane (compensation pick)

36. Brisbane (from Gold Coast)

37. Melbourne (from Essendon)

38. Brisbane (from Geelong)

Round 3

39. Western Bulldogs (tied to North Melbourne)

40. North Melbourne (from West Coast)

41. Hawthorn (from Collingwood)

42. Sydney (from Essendon)

43. Fremantle (from North Melbourne)

44. Fremantle (from Melbourne)

45. Gold Coast

46. Adelaide (from Gold Coast)

47. St Kilda

48. Hawthorn (from Brisbane)

49. Carlton (compensation pick)

50. Hawthorn (from Collingwood)

51. Collingwood (tied to Richmond)

52. Hawthorn (tied to Fremantle)

53. Richmond (from GWS)

54. Essendon (from Melbourne)

55. Brisbane (from Geelong)

56. Adelaide (from Brisbane)

57. GWS (from Port Adelaide)

58. Geelong

Round 4

59. Adelaide (from North Melbourne)

60. Port Adelaide (tied to West Coast)

61. Essendon

62. Richmond (from GWS)

63. Hawthorn (tied to Gold Coast)

64. Carlton (tied to Port Adelaide)

65. Fremantle (from Melbourne)

66. Essendon (from Carlton)

67. Western Bulldogs

68. Gold Coast (tied to Fremantle)

69. Sydney

70. Fremantle (tied to Geelong)

Round 5

71. West Coast

72. Port Adelaide

73. St Kilda

74. Carlton

75. Western Bulldogs

76. Richmond

77. Fremantle

78. Melbourne

79. Collingwood

80. Sydney

Round 6

81. St Kilda

82 Richmond

83 Melbourne

2023 FUTURE DRAFT PICKS TRADED (pre-draft)

Adelaide

IN: Round 2 (tied to North Melbourne), Round 3 (tied to Collingwood)

OUT: Round 3 & Round 4 (both to Gold Coast)

Brisbane

IN: Round 2 (tied to Geelong), Round 3 (tied to Melbourne), Round 3 (tied to Western Bulldogs), Round 4 (tied to Fremantle)

OUT: Round 1 & Round 2 (both to Western Bulldogs), Round 4 (to Hawthorn)

Carlton

IN: Round 4 (tied to Essendon)

OUT: Round 3 (to Fremantle)

Collingwood

IN: –

OUT: Round 2 (to GWS), Round 3 (to Adelaide)

Essendon

IN: Round 4 (tied to Sydney)

OUT: Round 4 (to Carlton)

Fremantle

IN: Round 2 & Round 3 (tied to North Melbourne), Round 3 (tied to Carlton), Round 4 (tied to North Melbourne)

OUT: Round 1 & Round 2 (both to Melbourne), Round 3 (to North Melbourne), Round 4 (to Gold Coast)

Geelong

IN: –

OUT: Round 2 & Round 4 (both to Brisbane), Round 3 (to Gold Coast)

Gold Coast

IN: Round 2 (tied to GWS), Round 3 (tied to Adelaide), Round 3 (tied to Geelong), Round 4 (tied to Adelaide), Round 4 (tied to St Kilda)

OUT: –

GWS

IN: Round 1 (tied to Richmond)

OUT: Round 2 (to Brisbane)

Hawthorn

IN: Round 2 (tied to Western Bulldogs), Round 4 (tied to Brisbane)

OUT: Round 4 (to Fremantle)

Melbourne

IN: Round 1 & Round 2 (both tied to Fremantle)

OUT: Round 3 & Round 4 (both to Western Bulldogs)

North Melbourne

IN: Round 1 (tied to Port Adelaide), Round 4 (tied to Hawthorn)

OUT: Round 2 & Round 3 (both to Fremantle), Round 2 (to Adelaide), Round 4 (to Fremantle)

Port Adelaide

IN: Round 2 (tied to Collingwood), Round 3 (tied to Fremantle)

OUT: Round 1 (to North Melbourne), Round 2 & Round 3 (both to West Coast)

Richmond

IN: –

OUT: Round 1 (to GWS)

St Kilda

IN: –

OUT: Round 4 (to Gold Coast)

Sydney

IN: –

OUT: Round 4 (to Essendon)

West Coast

IN: Round 2, Round 3 (both tied to Port Adelaide)

OUT: –

Western Bulldogs

IN: Round 1, Round 2 (both tied to Brisbane), Round 4 (tied to Melbourne), Round 4 (tied to Geelong)

OUT: Round 2 (to Fremantle), Round 3 (to Brisbane)

AFL DRAFT VALUE INDEX

Pick — Point value — Points needed to match with discount

1 — 3000 — 2400

2 — 2517 — 2014

3 — 2234 — 1787

4 — 2034 — 1627

5 — 1878 — 1503

6 — 1751 — 1401

7 — 1644 — 1315

8 — 1551 — 1241

9 — 1469 — 1175

10 — 1395 — 1116

11 — 1329 — 1063

12 — 1268 — 1014

13 — 1212 — 970

14 — 1161 — 929

15 — 1112 — 890

16 — 1067 — 854

17 — 1025 — 788

18 — 985 — 788

19 — 948 — 751

20 — 912 — 715

21 — 878 — 681

22 — 845 — 657

23 — 815 — 618

24 — 785 — 588

25 — 756 — 559

26 — 729 — 532

27 — 703 — 506

28 — 677 — 480

29 — 653 — 456

30 — 629 — 432

31 — 606 — 409

32 — 584 — 387

33 — 563 — 366

34 — 542 — 345

35 — 522 — 325

36 — 502 — 305

37 — 483 — 286

38 — 465 — 268

39 — 446 — 249

40 — 429 — 232

41 — 412 — 215

42 — 395 — 198

43 — 378 — 181

44 — 362 — 165

45 — 347 — 150

46 — 331 — 134

47 — 316 — 119

48 — 302 — 105

49 — 287 — 90

50 — 273 — 76

51 — 259 — 62

52 — 246 — 49

53 — 233 — 36

54 — 220 — 23

55 — 207 — 10

56 — 194

57 — 182

58 — 170

59 — 158

60 — 146

61 — 135

62 — 123

63 — 112

64 — 101

65 — 90

66 — 80

67 — 69

68 — 59

69 — 49

70 — 39

71 — 29

72 — 19

73 — 9

Picks 74 and onwards — 0