Fifty-two. Forty-one. Seventy-four. Sixty.
Those are not this week’s lotto numbers: they are the meagre points tallies St Kilda’s four vanquished opponents – Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Gold Coast – mustered against the AFL’s stingiest defence.
Prime ball mover: St Kilda’s Bradley Hill.Credit: Getty Images
Defensive maestro Ross Lyon’s unbeaten Saints have conceded 10 goals fewer than all clubs bar Richmond, who have still coughed up 59 extra points, while being somewhat of an offensive juggernaut, too.
They have gone from 15th to second in converting a rebound 50 into an inside 50, and 11th to second at generating a forward-50 entry from kick-ins, according to Champion Data. Lyon’s men are also the sole team averaging more than 100 uncontested marks, too, which relates to them amassing the second-most short kicks in the opening month.
A mighty challenge awaits St Kilda on Sunday against Collingwood, but Fox Footy analyst David King is convinced the Saints’ success is sustainable.
“They are the best ball-movement team in the comp – they stop it better than anyone, and they’re second at going end-to-end themselves. Their run is all-consuming,” King said.
“It’s their best asset, and like Sydney last year, you can’t move the ball against them. They out-number, and do it on the skinny side of the ground, where they can invest numbers.
“You have to recognise what you’re seeing with them, but I’m looking forward to Sunday. They can beat Collingwood; if they keep the game on the skinny side and don’t allow Collingwood to switch into the corridor.”
Part of what makes the Saints-Magpies showdown so intriguing is they are thriving with game styles that divert from the pack.
Lyon’s celebrated return to Moorabbin, at the unfortunate Brett Ratten’s expense, came with a variety of questions after his underwhelming finish at Fremantle – the club he once ditched St Kilda for.
The biggest centred on how the Saints would play in the Lyon 2.0 era.
Lyon revealed he sent his star-studded group of assistants away to get creative, then they returned for a think-tank session that led to tailoring a game plan around his players’ running strengths, from Bradley Hill and Mason Wood to Seb Ross, Jack Sinclair and Ryan Byrnes.
“Our game style is an up-tempo, run-and-work game style. Hopefully, that was evident,” Lyon said after St Kilda’s first-round take-down of 2022 finalists Fremantle.
“I think if we play another team that’s really up-tempo; it will be ballistic. It will be last-man standing.”
That team has arrived in Collingwood, setting the scene for a tactical arm wrestle that could decide the match.
Both clubs benefit from out-numbering opponents: the super-fit Saints by repeatedly out-running their rivals from contest-to-contest and having constant support, whereas the Pies’ method revolves around pressing forward as a defensive group and relying on risk, reward and probability.
King calls the Saints’ approach “chase and arrive”, while Collingwood’s surge mentality often leads to four or five Pies breaking away together. At the same time, they are 11th for mark and play-on percentage, but have one of the lowest kick-to-handball ratios in the competition.
“They’re [Collingwood] prepared to give up an easy goal. They will try to out-number six versus three, and if the three [from the other team] can win it, they will have two spare blokes out the back,” King said.
“It’s analytics at its best. You will win 90 per cent of those six-versus-three contests, but it’s also why Brisbane were able to walk in so many goals against them last week. It might lose them a big game, but they’re going to win lots of matches.”
The Pies have more believers at this stage than St Kilda, one of only three sides with a sub-40 per cent scoring rate from inside 50s. As admirable as Zaine Cordy, Mitch Owens and Anthony Caminiti have been, the Saints are desperately missing Max King and Tim Membrey.
But they rank second in scores from turnover differential – and history tells us the premier typically comes from teams who finish in the top four in this statistic.
There is also a new-found appreciation for Sinclair, an All-Australian defender last season who has gone to another level this year in Lyon’s system. King thinks Sinclair is St Kilda’s best player, above Jack Steele and the injured Max King. Rich praise, indeed.
Living in the contest
Melbourne know where their strengths lie.
A starting midfield of Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney, with Max Gawn (when fit) or Brodie Grundy palming the ball down to them, is a leg-up most rivals can only dream of. Hence, coach Simon Goodwin designs his game plan from the contest out.
The 2021 premiers Melbourne have enjoyed a strong start to the year.Credit: Getty
“They want the game to live in the contest, but the biggest change this year from last is they’re taking more territory,” King said.
“Everything is about going forward. There is less backwards kicking and handballing, and less patience. They’re not as good with the footy [because of that], but they’re hard to beat because their pressure is always good in the contest.
“They have the ability to stop you moving the ball, have great contest players, and guys who just play their roles, like [Kade] Chandler, [Tom] Sparrow and [James] Jordon.”
The 2021 premiers are scoring an AFL-best 32.6 points more than their opposition from turnover, which may explain why they are getting more quality shots, resulting in them scoring a goal from an inside 50 more often than any team.
Turnover kings no more?
Richmond were the best at making opponents pay from a turnover last year, but have plummeted to second-worst through four rounds.
Scoring from turnovers was also the hallmark of the Tigers’ three premierships in four years between 2017 and 2020, so coach Damien Hardwick will be keen to fix the problem.
Jack Riewoldt will be vital for Richmond in Tom Lynch’s absence.Credit: AFL Photos
Offering Hardwick hope is they rank seventh for scoring from turnover differential, which is more flattering, while the excuses for their offensive output could partly owe to half their games being played at night.
But there is no hiding from the fact Richmond rank 17th — barely ahead of Fremantle’s impotent attack – for scores per inside 50 this year, after only Geelong were better than them in this metric last season.
Izak Rankine and the Crows placed Carlton under intense pressure.Credit: Getty Images
It won’t help that spearhead Tom Lynch may miss up to three months recovering from his broken right foot, so 34-year-old Jack Riewoldt and four-gamer Samson Ryan suddenly have a lot more responsibility.
Crows’ killer efficiency
Adelaide’s thumping victory over previously unbeaten Carlton on Thursday night was not as big a surprise for those familiar with the numbers.
Matthew Nicks’ Crows were already No.1 in the AFL for scores per inside 50 (up from 10th in 2022) – doing so more than half the time – before posting 28 scoring shots (18.10) from only 51 inside 50s against an otherwise stoic Blues backline. Recruit Izak Rankine and second-year star Josh Rachele are the league’s in-form small-forward duo, with Rankine and tall forwards Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker all in the top five for marks inside 50 in the opening month.
There was scope for improvement defensively before the Carlton result – especially their turnover game – but that was the area Nicks was most pleased with as they kicked off Gather Round in emphatic fashion. He highlighted their ability to score 10 goals to the Blues’ two from intercepts. “I can tell you there are a few happy boys in that room at the moment that the number [we conceded] was 62 – and that number is a lot more important than the number we put up [118],” Nicks said.
As for Carlton, the reality check highlighted deficiencies that were already showing, particularly at stoppages.
They lost contested possession and centre clearances for the third time each in five rounds despite Sam Walsh and Matt Kennedy returning, but had significantly improved their scoring from turnovers before Thursday night.
What hurt was the Blues’ defence – built around Jacob Weitering, Lewis Young, Adam Saad and the in-form Nic Newman – did not stand up as it had in the first month, and were beaten in numerous one-on-one contests.
“Carlton’s back six have been unbelievable … they have so much trust in them that they don’t really drop numbers back,” King said.
“They don’t sacrifice to roll back because their guys are so good, so it doesn’t impact their ball movement.”
What to make of the Cats and Lions?
Geelong and Brisbane Lions have been competition powerhouses for several years, but each has had a tardy start to the season.
The Cats’ turnover game, which underpinned their premiership success last year, has tumbled from league-best to 10th, but their second-half Easter Monday resurrection could be ominous for rivals.
They scored 62 more points than Hawthorn off turnovers that afternoon.
As for Chris Fagan’s Lions – who prioritise kicking over handball more than anyone – they are comfortably the worst at transitioning the Sherrin from defence in 2023 after ranking third last year.
But long-kicking Daniel Rich’s return from a fortnight out with a quadriceps setback could be just the tonic for their ball movement.
They also need to improve their scores from turnover and scoring efficiency inside 50 if they are to blossom into the flag contender many thought they were in the pre-season.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
