From the scrap-heap to an MVP chance: How a $380m NFL trade ‘mistake’ became a masterstroke

Week 10

ESPN graded the trade for Seattle as a D+, with Kevin Seifert writing: “NFL franchises can spend a generation or more trying to find a quarterback as good as Wilson is at age 33. They almost never become available via trade or free agency, and the Broncos got one without completely devastating their roster, their salary-cap situation or their future drafts.”

“For the Seahawks, the big question is “why?” What would prompt you to trade a franchise quarterback, presumably still in his prime even if he is in the second half of his career, given the historical difficulty of finding an equitable replacement?

“Look at the history of the Seahawks, which goes back to 1976, and try to find a quarterback who even approached Wilson’s proficiency. Why not do whatever it takes to extend his time in Seattle? If you couldn’t do that, why not?”

It appeared Carroll was happy to go into the 2022 season with Lock, or perhaps veteran backup Geno Smith, as his starter.

Lock at least had youth on his side; Smith, 32 last month, has floated around the league for years, after debuting in the same season where Wilson led the Seahawks to a Super Bowl title.

Across four NFL teams his most notable achievement was getting punched in the face by then-New York Jets teammate IK Enemkpali over an unpaid $US600 debt, costing him the 2015 season and creating headlines such as the New York Daily News’: “LUCK OF THE JAW! Jets fans rejoice as QB out 6-10 weeks.”

Yes, rejoice. Because Smith was, frankly, rubbish. The second-round pick took the Jets to an 8-8 record in his 2013 rookie season, before an interrupted second year – which saw him miss a team meeting because he didn’t know the east and west coasts of the US, a famously large country, had a three-hour time difference – and the wasted third.

He floated around the league from there, making a brief appearance here and there for the New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers, before ending up in Seattle where he’s now been for four seasons.

At no point was Smith considered worth a second chance. Yet, after the 2022 pre-season, Pete Carroll’s infinite wisdom determined the long-time back-up, on a one-year, $US3.5 million deal with the same amount in incentives, was a preferable option than potential Hall of Famer Wilson.

And so went the Seahawks, looking like prey to the slaughter in a dangerous NFC West division featuring the reigning champs Los Angeles, conference finalists San Francisco and an offensively powerful Arizona side that went 11-6 the year before.

If you were on Carroll’s side at this point, you were a blood relative of either him or Smith.

And yet how smart the Seahawks look now.

The NFC West standings look absurd: Seattle, alone at the top at 6-3 and the only team in the quartet with a winning record, clearly ahead of the Niners (4-4), Rams (3-5) and Cardinals (3-6) – having already swept the latter 2-0.

In a weak NFC, the Seahawks look playoff-bound – and in a weak NFC, they might have the second-best signal-caller.

While Jalen Hurts is a clear No.1, fighting with Josh Allen for the MVP award, Smith has a statistical case to be the next-best quarterback in the entire conference.

His performance, compared to his career baseline, has been staggering. He’s fourth in the NFL for ESPN’s all-encompassing QBR rating, behind only Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagavailoa, and third for EPA (expected points added) behind just Allen and Mahomes.

Through nine games Smith has reached a career high for passing touchdowns with 15 – his previous high, 13, also came with 13 interceptions. This year he’s been picked just four times.

Most remarkable is his completion percentage of 73.1% – per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the expected completion percentage on his throws is 66%.

That gap between his actual and expected percentages of 7.1 is by far the league’s best. Doing that while ranking roughly middle of the pack for the distances he’s being asked to throw – he’s not exactly Rex Grossman ‘f*** it I’m going deep’, but he’s certainly not dinking and dunking either – is remarkable.

“There is no quarterback that has more perfect throws in every game than Geno Smith,” ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said last week.

“There’s one quarterback in the NFL this season with less than 10 percent of his throws off-target, the only person is Geno Smith. That’s why he’s right in the MVP race. He has more perfect throws than any guy in the league right now.”

His stat-line is extremely reminiscent of Drew Brees’ final great seasons with New Orleans, before he fell off at the end, and that version of Brees easily made the Saints a contender.

Smith doesn’t have the same quality of players around him but in an apparently weak division and conference, a playoff win is well and truly on the table, when most thought the Seahawks would be wilting.

All of this would already be impressive even if the flip side of the coin didn’t exist – a coin that got stuck in the mud, made some terrible decisions and keeps saying “let’s ride” like a broken talking doll.

In Denver, where the Seahawks’ former superstar Wilson is now plying his trade, things are a mess. Like its NFC counterpart, the AFC West isn’t exactly a murderer’s row this year, but the Broncos are still an unfortunate 3-5, three games back of Kansas City and two of the LA Chargers, in what was expected to be a tight three-way race.

And that’s because Wilson’s side of the ball stinks. Coming into week 9, the Broncos had the league’s No.1 defence per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric – but it is being completely wasted by Wilson and co., slumping their way to the No.27 offence.

It seems absurd that the Broncos could finally land the superstar QB they’ve been waiting for since Peyton Manning retired (well, since a couple of years before Peyton retired – did you see him at the end there?) and actually get worse on offence, but they have. And Wilson, who ranks a woeful 28th in QBR ahead of only Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, is a big reason why.

Yes, it’s been reported that Wilson has been playing through injury, but it was incredibly convenient that those unverifiable stories came out right as the furore around his poor form was reaching fever pitch. (We’re not suggesting that some big-time NFL reporters are close to the agents who give them stories in exchange for dropping their names on social media, but…)

Either way, the Broncos and their $380 million QB are bad, and the Seahawks and $5.4 million replacement are at least good. Which nobody outside of the Seattle team facility thought was coming.

And the worse the Broncos get, the better it is for the Seahawks, thanks to the Wilson trade and the picks involved. Right now Carroll’s side would own pick 11 as well as pick 24 – which, to be honest, is what most people probably expected… except with the Broncos’ pick being the one reflecting a playoffs team.

Unless the Broncos really collapse they’re unlikely to hand Seattle a top-5 pick which would enable them to nab one of the two superstar QB prospects in this upcoming draft, Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, but with two firsts they’ll have the ammo to trade up if they want to.

Or they could stick with Smith – who seems to think he was always this good, but just needed a shot.

“I didn’t just get this good over the course of one offseason. I think that’s mostly narrative and a lot of that stuff is media driven, but when it comes down to me, people where I’m from know who I am,” he said last week.

“West Virginia, I just got inducted into the (university’s) hall of fame, so people in college football know who I am. The New York Jets as well, the Giants, the Chargers and Seattle. So people have continued to let me know that if I just keep working hard that things will happen for you, and that’s what I did.”

He has placed himself in prime position to land a juicy, reasonably-long contract for the first time in his career.

Yet Smith says: “I don’t really live my life like that.

“I’m always focused on what I’ve got to do today and tomorrow. Those things will come. Time will tell. Time will tell with all that. But for me, I’ve just got to stay focused on what I’m doing in here and that’s working hard and leading this team and going out there and competing to get wins.”

It’s an admirable attitude – from a guy you can’t help but be happy for.