It would have been unthinkable at the start of the season, but Penrith appear in danger of joining a rare list of clubs to slump from NRL premiers to finals spectators in the space of a year.
After Saturday’s 26-10 loss to Manly at CommBank Stadium, the defending four-time champions inexplicably find themselves occupying the last rung on the competition ladder, with just two wins from their first eight games.
That leaves them with 16 regular-season rounds to claw their way back into the top eight and avoid the unfortunate fate of Canterbury (2004), Wests Tigers (2005) and Melbourne Storm (2009) – the three premiership-winning teams of the NRL era (since 1998) who missed the play-offs the year after clinching the title.
The Bulldogs nosedived from champions to 12th, the Tigers slipped from the penthouse to 11th, while the Storm ended up with the 2010 wooden spoon after being stripped of all their points that season – as well as having two grand final triumphs annulled – over a now-infamous salary cap scandal.
Panthers coach Ivan Cleary, while frustrated with a run of six losses in seven games that has caused his team to plummet from first to worst, replied “absolutely” when asked on Saturday night if they were still alive in the finals race.
But as Channel Nine commentator Billy Slater noted on Sunday: “We’re only eight rounds in, but that’s a third of the way into the competition, and they’ve only clocked up two wins for the year.
Nathan Cleary has been frustrated by Penrith’s patchy form.Credit: Getty Images
“We’re all waiting for the Panthers to click, and it’s just not happening.
“Last week they had a good win against the Roosters, but then back to the losing form line again … time is starting to run out for the Panthers.”
Adding to Penrith’s concerns, their next two games are road trips to play in-form Brisbane and North Queensland, and then they face the prospect of being decimated by State of Origin selections.
As for how many more wins Penrith will need to make the top-eight cut-off, well, how long is a piece of string?
In 2018, the Warriors qualified eighth in the play-offs with 15 regular-season victories. Three years later, Gold Coast needed only 10 wins to claim the last berth in the finals.
More often than not, 12 wins from 24 games are required, but it is far from an exact science. Whatever the case, Penrith have ground to make up but are only two victories adrift of the top eight, so their season is still salvageable.
In betting markets, they have drifted from $4.50 second favourites for the title in the pre-season to $15. They are now paying $2.25 to make the eight, after being initially listed at $1.15.
Cleary maintains there are still enough games remaining to launch a run that culminates in finals qualification.
“We want to play better, though, before we need to worry about that … we’ve got to put bigger periods of good play together,” he said.
He was bemused when asked if the points table was a true reflection of how his team have been performing.
“I don’t think so, but I guess it is,” he said.
“The ladder doesn’t really matter until July or August or something, but I guess it’s a talking point. When you only win two games, you’re going to be down there somewhere.”
He suggested the solution to Penrith’s problems was straightforward.
“You’ve just got to play better,” he said. “It’s not rocket science. To win NRL games, you need to play better, for longer.”
Cleary’s son Nathan, Penrith’s champion playmaker and co-captain, had no doubt the Panthers – one of only three teams in history to win four titles in a row – were close to finding their mojo.
“I’m still super-positive about what this group can do, because I feel like in every single game we’ve had patches of the footy we want to play,” the halfback said.
“They’re just too few and far between at the moment.
“It’s like we want to make it hard, instead of going after the game and making it easier, which is a weird thing to say.
“It’s just finding that consistency through a game, when we have momentum, actually building on it rather than giving it up.”
Exacerbating Penrith’s issues, back-rower Scott Sorensen is facing a two-game suspension after being charged with a grade-two shoulder charge on Manly forward Nathan Brown.
If the Panthers opt to contest the charge at the judiciary, Sorensen could be banned for three games, if he was found guilty.
Channel Nine commentator Andrew Johns felt Sorenson had been harshly treated.
“For that to get two weeks is farcical,” Johns said.
NRL is Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now
