Two AFL trade bidding wars are set to ramp up over the coming months, with clubs set to offer up juicy deals for a couple of top-10 draft picks widely expected to be up for grabs.
And West Coast and Gold Coast will no doubt listen to all offers.
It comes after a report suggested Pick 1 favourite Harley Reid and his camp had begun to privately suggest to some clubs his preference would be to stay in Victoria.
Watch every match of every round of the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
A powerful and versatile 185cm player from the Bendigo Pioneers, Reid is considered the top prospect in this year’s draft pool by most clubs. That standing was enhanced during the recent national carnival, with Reid winning Vic Country’s MVP award after booting 5.6 and averaging 20 disposals, 13 contested possessions and a competition-high seven clearances.
THE CONUNDRUM FACING EAGLES
West Coast, which hasn’t had any official communication from the Reid camp about where he wants to play his footy, is seemingly destined to finish on the bottom of this year’s AFL ladder, which would therefore hand the club Pick 1. And regardless of Reid’s preference, the Eagles will still face a significant call on whether to hold their first pick or trade it away to acquire multiple selections, considering their list state of play
Following his side’s 122-point loss to Adelaide last month, Eagles coach Adam Simpson assured frustrated supporters his club had a clear plan to regenerate the playing list via coming national drafts, declaring: “We‘re going to transition the list pretty quickly, it’s going to be one of the youngest lists in the comp in a year or so. We want to get some picks at the top end if we can.”
Schofield shocked Reid may turn down WC | 01:59
‘Splitting’ Pick 1 would mean the Eagles would lose the right to have first crack in the draft to recruit, who they believe, is the top prospect in the pool. But they’d get a juicy deal back – likely an array of early picks in both this year’s and next year’s draft – to help accelerate their rebuild. And the fact there are several WA-based prospects in the top-20 mix this year would make the split option more enticing.
Foxfooty.com.au on Wednesday spoke to six draft sources, with nearly all suggesting they wouldn’t be surprised to see West Coast trade Pick 1 considering Reid’s reported preference to remain in Victoria had been widely discussed in the industry for a while.
Reid will almost certainly be taken at Pick 1. Now it’s a question of which club will hold the selection.
Multiple clubs suggested to foxfooty.com.au on Wednesday the Eagles would slide down the order if they could ‘guarantee’ they could still draft Daniel Curtin – WA’s top prospect who West Coast has strong interest in, according to rival clubs. A versatile 195cm prospect from Claremont, Curtin starred in the recent national carnival, winning WA’s MVP award and averaging 24 disposals, nine contested possessions and five tackles while going at 82 per cent by foot.
Curtin has now established himself as a top-five talent – and if the Eagles are keen to acquire the local star, they couldn’t afford to slide too far down the order.
RIVALS BEST PLACED TO POUNCE ON PICK 1
The two clubs sources believe would be best placed to strike a deal with the Eagles for Pick 1 are Melbourne and North Melbourne – although there’s a few factors that could impact the Roos’ ability to make a play.
The Dees, after Round 19, hold one of the strongest hands in this year’s draft. Not only do they hold their natural first and second-round picks, they also have 15th-placed Fremantle’s first and second-rounders, which are currently Picks 4 and 23. Melbourne has been aggressive at the trade table in recent years, particularly when trying to move up the draft order – last year they reportedly offered three first-round selections to Essendon for Picks 4 and 22 at the time – so rivals could see the Dees parting with multiple first-rounders to get the first pick this year.
The Demons, like many clubs, would be stoked to land a player like Reid. And you sense this might be their best chance to move up the order and select an elite young talent while still being in their premiership window.
But the Kangaroos could be just as appealing for West Coast to trade with.
Not only do the 17th-placed Kangaroos hold their natural first-rounder (Pick 2, at this stage), they’re also tied to Port Adelaide’s first selection (Pick 17, at this stage).
NEW FOX FOOTY PODCAST — Blues, Giants surge into thrilling finals race
Listen below or subscribe in Apple Podcasts or Spotify
Then there’s the prospect of the Roos also acquiring Pick 3 during the early stages of the AFL exchange period. Senior AFL reporter Damian Barrett reported on Footy Classified on Wednesday night that if free agent Ben McKay left the Kangaroos, he expected the club to receive a first-round selection as compensation for losing the key defender.
For context, North Melbourne acquired Picks 2 and 3 last year for losing Pick 1 and Jason Horne-Francis to Port Adelaide as part of the four-way mega trade
North Melbourne, as flagged by interim coach Brett Ratten, is also in the process of applying for a priority draft pick this year, given they’ve won just 11 of their last 78 games. The Roos last year received one future second and one future third round pick – which they had to use in trades – as part of an assistance package. Ultimately, they used those picks to acquire Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker from Fremantle.
But the more likely outcome, according to draft sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au, is the AFL will allow North to pre-list star Tasmanian midfield prospect Ryley Sanders, who the Kangaroos are hoping will be added to their Next Generation Academy after he recently received his certificate of Aboriginality. Sanders ranked eighth in foxfooty.com.au’s draft power rankings released earlier this week and is widely considered a prospect worthy of a top-10 selection.
Will Roos get priority pick help? | 03:44
There are suggestions the Roos would like to bring Sanders and fellow Tasmanian star Colby McKercher to the club, which would be a big coup to bring two of the best pure midfield prospects to North in a draft class where most of the best players are outside the centre square.
But Reid is considered a generational talent – one experienced recruiter told foxfooty.com.au earlier this year Reid was the best prospect they’d ever seen – and would be hard to pass up if there was a genuine chance you could get him.
The Giants could be another contender in the Pick 1 trade space as they also hold two first-round picks: Their own (currently Pick 10) and Richmond’s (currently Pick 8) after the Jacob Hopper deal. But those selections have continued to slide during the back-half of this season with every win the Giants and Tigers have pulled off. Plus if there’s already been whispers around Reid’s desire to stay in Victoria, the Giants probably wouldn’t entertain a dramatic move up, considering their own retention issues and concerns in past years.
The Western Bulldogs are the other team with two first-round selections – their own (currently Pick 12) and Brisbane’s (currently Pick 16) following the Josh Dunkley trade – that would consider a play for the top pick.
Sydney holds its natural first-rounder (currently Pick 5), but sources indicate that selection will be central to a possible separate deal with West Coast should star defender Tom Barrass request a trade to the Swans – a scenario that’s gathering momentum.
And should the Eagles hold their top pick and that deal with the Swans comes to fruition, it’d leave them with two top-five picks – a great foundation to rebuild through this year’s draft without having to split Pick 1 … although a deal with the Demons or Kangaroos would still be enticing.
WHY RIVALS COULD ALSO TARGET SUNS’ PICK
West Coast’s selection is highly unlikely to be the only top-10 pick on the table, with Gold Coast widely expected to part with its own first selection as it deciphers how points will be needed to match inevitable early rival club bids on their three Academy prospects.
The Suns have already traded heavily into this year’s draft due to the calibre of their academy talent, who could all attract top-10 bids. Their class is headlined by powerful 195cm key forward Jed Walter, who’s widely regarded the second-best prospect in this year’s draft class behind Reid. But Walter could also be joined in the top five by athletic 200cm ruck Ethan Read – who’s flown up draft boards after a standout national championships campaign for the Allies – while dynamic 172cm midfielder Jake Rogers is also in the top-10 mix after an outstanding 2023 campaign.
The Suns already hold one pick in the first round, two in the second, three in the third and three in the fourth, meaning they’re armed with points to match inevitably early bids and well placed to trade in more picks later this year. Based on current ladder positions, they hold Picks 6, 26, 29, 44, 45, 56, 62, 63 and 69, which adds up to 4320 points on the draft value index.
But as flagged by foxfooty.com.au in May, recruiters are expecting the Suns’ top pick to be on the table, considering a Walter bid – possibly Read, too – will occur before Pick 6.
The Suns, at this stage, aren’t quite prepared for the most costly bidding scenario. For example, if Walter, Read and Rogers attracted bids at Picks 2, 5 and 8 respectively, the Suns would need 4755 points to match all three bids, once the 20 per cent discount is included. But if bids on Read and Rogers come later at Picks 10 and 13 for instance, the Suns would only need 4098 points to match.
Of course, Gold Coast could go into draft deficit, which would see their hand at the 2024 draft take a hit. But there’s a fourth academy prospect – midfielder-defender Will Graham, who averaged 16.5 disposals and 5.0 marks while going at 79.5 per cent efficiency by foot for the Allies during the national championships – that rival clubs are keeping close tabs on and the Suns are strongly considering adding to their list. Some clubs believe Graham is a top-30 prospect, while others wouldn’t be surprised to see him attract a bid in the 40s.
Hence the Suns’ first pick will be a prized trade target, because the more points the Suns have heading into the draft, the more flexibility it’d give them. Plus if they plan on doing anything else in the trade period, they’d definitely need to split their first-round selection.
THE TEAMS IN THE MIX
There will be heaps of interested rivals in that first Suns pick.
Richmond is the team that has been consistently linked in recent months to a possible play for that Gold Coast selection. The Tigers at this stage have one of this year’s thinnest draft hands – currently Picks 27, 46 and 64 – so they’d have to get creative, or offload a player or two, in order to strike a deal.
Elsewhere, the Bulldogs and Eagles hold a suite of second and third-round picks that might appeal to the Suns, while St Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon, and Fremantle all could be suitors should they wish to trade up the order.
Pat Cripps praises ‘confident’ Vossy | 01:38
Who the Suns deal with, ultimately, will depend on what they want to get out of the deal. They might want a mix of 2023 and 204 draft picks, or they could be after 2023 picks and a player(s).
“If you’ve looked at what we’ve done over recent years, we’ve bankrolled picks forward. We’ve been expecting this to be a strong academy group for a number of years and we’ve prepared accordingly for that,” Suns recruiting boss Kall Burns told AFL Media’s Gettable last month.
“It (trading their first pick) is something we’ll absolutely consider. There’s a number of strategies we’re working towards and we’ll just see how things play out later in the year through trad period – and you can still trade picks right up until the draft and once the draft commences.”
Burns added the Suns would be “open to all things and have a strategy in place”.
So will West Coast.
