Four-way flag race emerges as pre-season fancy slips to scary new low: AFL Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

A third of the way through the home and away season a strong top four of flag contenders have emerged – but one pre-season fancy just keeps falling.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (7-1, 121.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

After a pretty chalky weekend – the higher team on the ladder won every game, including the current top seven – our No.1 seed also remains the same. The suddenly dour Magpies, who haven’t kicked more than 13 goals in a game since Round 2, keep doing just enough and banking wins against tough opposition. It sets them up very nicely for the next month of the season, which includes very winnable games against GWS, North Melbourne and West Coast, ahead of the potential Grand Final preview on King’s Birthday (jeez that’s gonna take a while to get used to). You’d expect the Pies should be sitting on 10 or 11 wins by the time of their Round 14 bye; helpful, because their fixture overall is bloody tough this year. Playing Geelong and Brisbane twice was always going to be tricky, plus you never know how Carlton games will go (well, the Blues will probably lose in agonising fashion) – but their supposed ‘easy’ double-up games are against Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide, AKA three of 2023’s big risers. Some might call that bad luck.

Next game: GWS Giants at the MCG, Sunday twilight

2. MELBOURNE (6-2, 138.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Breathe, bank the win and move forward. They were a bit lucky to get past the Suns given some of the umpiring decisions that went their way in the latter stages, but that trip to Gold Coast is trickier than you think so we’re not concerned about it. The Demons’ first three-game winning streak since May last year – no, really! – should extend to four though the Hawks’ young midfield can’t be discounted. Otherwise there’s just really not a lot going on with the Demons. They’re really good. They can win the flag. Enjoy the ride Dees fans.

Next game: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday twilight

3. GEELONG (5-3, 135.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

Five wins in a row, and you’d suspect more to come with the below-strength Tigers plus Fremantle and GWS up next. The Cats are going very nicely especially considering over a third of their premiership side was unavailable for Saturday’s win over the Crows. They in fact played their youngest team in 12 months, with 10 players under the age of 25 – including guys considered more as depth, like Mitch Knevitt, Oliver Dempsey and Sam Simpson. So while they’ll miss Patrick Dangerfield while he’s out, potentially until after the bye, this winning run is proving the list is strong enough to sustain amid the absences. After all, what exactly is Chris Scott going to do with best-on-ground Esava Ratugolea when all of his defensive options are available? These are good problems to have.

Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Friday night early

4. BRISBANE LIONS (6-2, 122%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

This wasn’t the biggest of Brisbane’s five straight wins but it might’ve been the most impressive, coming on the road and in comprehensive fashion against the Blues. Their forward pressure and defensive structures were excellent – it was close to a complete performance, in the way we thought the Lions could produce when they went big in the trade period. How fitting then that Josh Dunkley was so critical to it. While the Bombers are no easy-beats, the Gabba has gotten to GMHBA Stadium levels of difficulty for visiting sides, so we expect the Lions to get to seven on the trot (beating Essendon and then Gold Coast) before a mouth-watering pre-bye trip to face Adelaide. Now that could be high-scoring.

Next game: Essendon at the Gabba, Saturday night

5. ST KILDA (6-2, 137.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

We know it’s always risky to suggest a team has been lucky in some way, because some will take it as us trying to tear down a team that’s performing well. Please don’t – we still think the Saints are legitimately good. However something interesting is emerging with how poorly teams are kicking for goal against them. Just twice has a team kicked more goals than behinds against St Kilda in 2023, and they’re a massive outlier on expected score. In total Saints opponents have scored 106 points less than they “should have” all year, capped off by the Kangaroos being 31 points below par. It’s worth noting that the Saints have conceded 105 fewer points than the second-best defence (Collingwood). So yes, their defence is really good, but they’re getting some help with opposition teams continuously stuffing up in front of the sticks.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

6. PORT ADELAIDE (6-2, 103%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Some of bad goalkicking is luck; some of it is decision-making and creating bad opportunities for yourself. The Power had a bit of both on their way to 12.20 against the Bombers, and it almost cost them an important game, but they held on and now head into the most bizarrely fixtured game of the season – the Jason Horne-Francis Cup played in Tasmania. We’ll just note one thing, with Ken Hinkley’s side looking likely to bank a sixth straight victory. In 2021 they were the best close-game team in the AFL, going 5-0; in 2022 they were the worst, going 2-7. And in 2023 they’re 3-0 in close games. Must’ve started training them again.

Next game: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena, Saturday afternoon

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-4, 108.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

It’s hard not to be impressed with the Crows’ ability to take it up to two of the AFL’s top sides – and hard not to be concerned they might’ve cost themselves two wins. Obviously they were much closer to beating Collingwood than Geelong, but right before Rory Laird’s bizarre and frankly stupid brainfade to give away a free kick and goal in late in the fourth quarter, it felt like Adelaide was about to force a dramatic finish. Instead they’ve copped two more losses, adding to the disappointing season-opening defeats to GWS and Richmond, that have them outside of the eight. Ahead of a critical month of games, against the Saints, Bulldogs, Lions and Suns, we now wait and see whether they can live up to their obvious potential. Given the two toughest games of that bunch are at Adelaide Oval, they could genuinely go 4-0. Do that and they’re in the top four mix.

Next game: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-3, 99.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

Really the Bulldogs are a microcosm of the Power Rankings themselves this week – not a lot has changed. Marcus Bontempelli, already in the conversation for the best player in the game in recent years, remains in the top two with Jeremy Cameron. Tim English remains spectacular. And they’re winning while not being overly impressive against lowly opposition. After three victories they pretty much had to have, they’ve got five critical games to come that could really go either way – Carlton this week, Adelaide in Ballarat, Gold Coast in the top end, and then Geelong and Port Adelaide at Marvel. All winnable, all loseable, and all indicative of where the Dogs are going to end up this year.

Next game: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday night

9. ESSENDON (4-4, 109%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

It’s weird looking at the formline next to Essendon’s name on the ladder, because it sure doesn’t feel like they’ve lost three straight games – we feel even more confident now in saying they’re at least good. Good enough to beat Brisbane up north? Probably not. Good enough to play finals? Well, they wouldn’t be in our predicted eight right now, but they could realistically be 8-5 at the bye with the Tigers, Eagles, Roos and Blues to come after this week’s tough road trip. And after the bye they’ve still got games against Fremantle, GWS and then the Roos and Eagles again. Throw in a win in 50-50 game at Marvel against a team like Adelaide or Sydney, and that’s the 13 wins you need for the top eight.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday night

10. SYDNEY SWANS (3-5, 99.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

The Swans move up despite their loss to the Magpies because they really weren’t that far off pulling the upset. Like the rest of Sunday’s games, bad kicking had a heavy influence on the contest, with the visitors wasting their chances to get on top. Maybe the Pies would’ve done their run-them-down-late thing again, but the Swans withstood that in last year’s prelim, so maybe not. And we’re not going to blame choosing to tag Nick Daicos either – Ryan Clarke has done that job well in the past, and Daicos was quiet for the three quarters Clarke spent on him. Look, nobody’s saying the Swans are going well, but if this is the low point of their season they can still recover. They’ve got Freo, North and Carlton before the bye, so they could be 6-5. Why are we supposed to be panicking now, after a narrow loss to the ladder leaders? The timing just makes no sense to us.

Next game: Fremantle at the SCG, Saturday early

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (3-5, 91.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

The season opener aside, the Suns have become a sneaky-good home team, with coming ever-so-close to beating Melbourne another sign of that. Certainly with the number of umpiring decisions that went against them late in the game you could argue they should’ve actually won the game but them’s the breaks. Of course, here’s the problem with becoming a great home team – they keep selling their home games. We understand the benefits of playing games in the Northern Territory, especially with their recruiting zone there, but after the next two weeks (they should beat the Eagles, and then lose to Brisbane away), they play the Bulldogs and Adelaide both at TIO Stadium. We’d almost want to tip the Suns if both games were at Carrara – we hope the reduced home ground advantage doesn’t come back to bite them at the pointy end of the season.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Friday night late

12. RICHMOND (2-5-1, 95.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

That first half won’t help the Name-A-Game sales at all but the second half saw some classic Richmond ball movement by hand, the likes of which we haven’t seen since… maybe the second quarter against the Bulldogs? The Tigers are still in a real hole when it comes to recovering and playing finals but they’ve taken the first step, and as we’ve said for a while, we don’t think they’re as far off in terms of actual talent as many have been suggesting. Also, man, the Tim Taranto ‘debate’ (or whatever you want to call it) is silly. Rank him where you want, but he’s probably winning their best and fairest right now – and we understand how he became a flashpoint, because big trades are juicy narrative-drivers and fun to write about, but good lord he’s just so obviously not the problem.

Next game: Geelong at the MCG, Friday night early

13. CARLTON (4-3-1, 107.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

So let’s start with this – Brisbane played really well. There are always two sides in a game of footy, so it’s not like Carlton purely lost because they were bad. But we now have a two-month sample of the 2023 Blues… and they’ve beaten three bottom-six teams (GWS, North Melbourne and West Coast) plus a still-having-their-preseason Geelong. So they’ve beaten basically nobody. At best, they look like a fringe top eight contender, given they’ve been entirely unimpressive against Adelaide, St Kilda and Brisbane over the last month. We completely understand the frustration from their fans on Friday night – progress is never linear but when you’re literally a point away from playing finals last year, and you’ve been building for almost a decade now, at some point you want to see everything coming together. And it just isn’t. Listen; the Blues can still play finals – they’re in the eight right now for crying out loud. But they’ve still got a really tough next five weeks (Bulldogs, Magpies, Swans, Demons, Bombers). They can’t afford to keep sliding.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday night

14. FREMANTLE (3-5, 95.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

The win was obviously important but arguably more critical for the Dockers’ hopes of reviving this season was a second straight week of showing intent with the ball. They weren’t as handball-happy as we saw against Brisbane, but they were aggressive; and yes part of it was being allowed to do what they wanted by Hawthorn. As Justin Longmuir explained on AFL 360, being able to score on 70 per cent of your entries in a half of footy makes your ball movement look pretty damn good. But given how dour they were over the opening six weeks any signs of life are appreciated. They’re only a win and a half out of the eight, and their early season losses to St Kilda and Adelaide don’t look as bad now (though the North Melbourne loss looks worse). But they’re still going to pinch some unlikely games to actually get back in the finals fight, starting with this Saturday. Our tip is to make sure the ball is near the goalline on the camera left side of the SCG in the final moments… based on recent history it’ll go through.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Saturday early

15. GWS GIANTS (3-5, 91.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

There really is a serious gap between the Giants in 15th and the Hawks in 16th (despite how close the pair were when they played each other). Once again Adam Kingsley’s men were valiant and in the contest, if held at arm’s length, against a contender – their average losing margin is less than three goals. In a way this is ideal, since they don’t really need the wins, just good signs for the future. Tom Green’s emergence as a potential superstar is one of them – and letting Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper leave to give him the space to take over the midfield is making more and more sense.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Sunday twilight

16. HAWTHORN (1-7, 61.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

After a few weeks of respectable competitiveness, it’s like the Hawks realised they don’t need to be valiant every week. We would expect inconsistency from a young team and ‘making Fremantle look like it has a functioning offence’ certainly counts as inconsistency. Perhaps Sam Mitchell’s men will put up a surprising fight this week but really, all eyes are on next week, when the Hawks host West Coast in Tassie. They’ll be favourites – and just get ready to hear ‘The Harley Reid Cup’ a few times in the build-up…

Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday twilight

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-6, 65.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

Why yes, we would like to take something positive out of a game where the Kangaroos kicked 0.7 at halftime, thanks for asking! Clearly their goalkicking was horrendous but if you accept that luck plays a heavy degree in that, as we do, you can look at the expected score from the game and say the Roos weren’t that far off a major upset. They were 31 points worse than what they ‘should’ve’ scored – 65 points, instead of 34 – which is the biggest differential of the year so far. Basically the Roos ‘should’ve’ lost by around two goals, which is pretty good against a team we genuinely respect in St Kilda.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Blundstone Arena, Saturday afternoon

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-7, 63.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Another week, another 40-plus point loss – that’s six in a row now. So let’s just make two quick points. Firstly, how good can Oscar Allen be? He’s kicked multiple goals in every game this year, sitting on 22 from eight matches, and is on track to surpass his career-best of 28 before the bye. They’ve got a potential A-grader on their hands if everything goes right there. Meanwhile, to Peter Sumich’s suggestion the Eagles would be better off playing one short rather than giving Jack Darling a game, we’d like to ask – how so?

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium, Friday night late