Four-club stunner looms as stars wait until last minute: Verdict on 10 biggest AFL trades left

We’re just three days away from Wednesday’s trade deadline, and yet a multitude of blockbuster moves are yet to be completed.

We know the big deals historically take up until the 11th hour to go through as clubs bargain and posture as long as they can. And this year, we could be set for an unprecedented amount of deadline trades involving stars.

Below foxfooty.com.au analyses and predicts how the 10 biggest remaining deals of the trade period get over the line.

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JOSH DUNKLEY TO BRISBANE

The Western Bulldogs were left frustrated from their latest trade talks with the Lions as the Dunkley deal has hit an impasse. There were reportedly initial discussions over the Dogs landing the Lions’ Pick 15 and a future first-round pick, however Brisbane reportedly wanted two second rounders (30 and 39) and a third rounder coming back in the exchange. The Lions then opted to trade down from their Pick 15 with the Giants to accumulate more draft points to help them land father-son pair Will Ashcroft and Jaspa Fletcher, thus worsening their hand to acquire Dunkley. SEN reported the Dogs were left “irate” and are now prepared to let Dunkley walk to the pre-season draft – a suggestion Dunkley’s manager Liam Pickering said was “ludicrous” while remaining “confident” a deal would get done. Something has to give, with the Dogs and Lions needing to meet in the middle from the originally discussed swap.

Verdict: Bulldogs receive Pick 21, future first-round pick and future second-round pick – Lions receive Dunkley, Pick 29 and future third-round pick.

LUKE JACKSON TO FREMANTLE

Another deal that’s at a stalemate after Melbourne knocked back Fremantle’s offer of Pick 13 and a future first rounder for the young gun. The Demons are reportedly seeking a top seven pick and a future first rounder or two top 10 picks – both of which the Dockers’ clearly don’t have. West Coast remains in the picture given Jackson requested a move back to Western Australia, not Fremantle specifically, however the Eagles aren’t considered a genuine landing spot for the former Rising Star winner and premiership player. The Dockers’ equivalent of getting Pick 13 up to Pick 7 is around 400 draft points – or a selection in the early 40s – so adding such a pick is another potential means to get a deal done and seems the most obvious avenue at this stage. Regardless, you’d think this one goes down to the wire.

Verdict: Demons receive Pick 13, future first-round pick and future third-round pick (tied to Kangaroos) – Dockers receive Jackson.

BRODIE GRUNDY TO MELBOURNE

Collingwood has commanded a top-25 pick for Grundy, who it’s set to chip in $300,000 of his salary worth around $1 million until 2025, and have knocked back Melbourne’s offer of selection 27 received from a pick swap with the Power. Reports state the Grundy trade may therefore need to wait until the Demons strike a deal with the Dockers for Luke Jackson that’d likely see Melbourne bring in Pick 13 and a future first rounder. There’s been whispers the Magpies could seek a pick slide that’d see them receive Pick 13 and 27 from Melbourne in exchange for Grundy and Pick 16. Alternately, the Pies could seek out the future first rounder lined to Fremantle, or for Melbourne to attach Pick 41, 50 future third rounder to 27.

Verdict: Magpies receive Picks 27 and 41, Demons receive Grundy and Pick 47 (tied to Bulldogs).

JASON HORNE-FRANCIS TO PORT ADELAIDE

North Melbourne and Port Adelaide will resume talks for the former Pick 1 on Monday, according to Channel 7, and discuss whether additional teams need to join the exchange. It comes after a massive four-team trade including GWS and West Coast fell apart after it was denied by the AFL, which would’ve seen the Power deal future first and second-round picks and the Roos gain Picks 2 and 3 and offload 1. League rules state clubs can’t trade multiple future selections if their future first-rounder is involved. And so it’s back to square one, although the four-time deal could yet get revisited with some tweaks. The Giants remain a live chance to get involved given their bounty of selections, while West Coast holds a valuable card in Pick 2 and West Coast’s Junior Rioli wants to get to Alberton.

Verdict: Kangaroos receive Picks 2 and 3, Power receive Horne-Francis and Rioli, Giants receive Pick 1, Eagles receive Picks 8 and 12.

JACOB HOPPER TO RICHMOND

Richmond and Greater Western Sydney got the Tim Taranto deal out of the way first as it was an easier one to negotiate given Taranto wasn’t contracted – it’s a different story for Hopper. Having given up pick No. 12 and 19 for Taranto, the Tigers have less to play with for Hopper, which is why a player has been discussed as a part of the deal. Ivan Soldo has completed a medical with the Giants, while the Tigers have all-but ruled out trading Hugo Ralphsmith. At the centre of the deal will be pick No. 31 and a future first-rounder, but it may not be enough, hence the addition of a player.

Verdict: Giants receive Pick 31, future first-round pick and Ivan Soldo – Tigers receive Hopper.

OLLIE HENRY TO GEELONG

The Cats and Pies had very little common ground to start the trade period when it came to Ollie Henry. An initial offer of pick No. 38 was baulked at by Pies officials for the former top 20 draft pick. The Cats no longer have pick No. 18 – traded for Tanner Bruhn – while a future second-round pick went out the door in a pick swap with the Lions. The pick Geelong received as part of that deal – No. 25 – will likely be the next proposal. As the Cats have traded out a future second-round pick, they no longer have their future first-rounder to trade. They’re expected to bring in pick No. 7 as part of a deal for Jack Bowes. They’re keen to take No. 7 to the draft, but the Pies will no doubt ask them to split it or trade it to them in exchange for Henry and a later first round pick. The Cats don’t have much to play with in terms of later selections.

Verdict: Magpies receive Pick 25 – Cats receive Henry.

TOM MITCHELL TO COLLINGWOOD

Collingwood has plenty of other priorities above Tom Mitchell right now – doing deals for Brodie Grundy and Ollie Henry key among them. Mitchell is seeking more midfield minutes and he’d get those at the Pies. The pick Collingwood has to give up for Mitchell would be contingent on the salary split between the two clubs for the final year of Mitchell’s contract with Hawthorn. Collingwood will be reluctant to give up anything close to its pick No. 16. Even if they get pick No. 25 in exchange for Ollie Henry they won’t be keen to part with that for Mitchell. Something around the 41 and 50 mark might have to do for the Hawks if they want to offload some cap space and Mitchell wants to move. Those two picks are the equivalent of pick No. 28 on value.

Verdict: Hawks receive pick Picks 41 and 50 – Magpies receive Mitchell.

RORY LOBB TO WESTERN BULLDOGS

Fremantle has publicly refused to entertain the idea of trading Rory Lobb, but he remains every chance of playing at the Western Bulldogs in 2023. Lobb may be contracted for next year at the Dockers, but his future effectively hinges on Luke Jackson coming across by the time the trade period is done. The Dockers and Dees continue to haggle over Jackson’s worth and that’s holding up several deals this trade period, not least of which is Brodie Grundy’s move to Melbourne. Lobb’s future is also contingent on a trade the Dogs do with Brisbane for Josh Dunkley, given one of the picks acquired in that deal could be used to get Lobb. Again, the pick used is dependent on how much of Lobb’s salary is covered by the Dogs in 2023, but the Dogs would be very reluctant to hand over a top-20 pick for a player nearing 30.

Verdict: Dockers receive Pick 30 – Bulldogs receive Lobb.

IZAK RANKINE TO ADELAIDE CROWS

It’s a surprise Rankine isn’t a Crow yet given the South Australian requested a trade in late August – and the crux of the deal has reportedly been in place for some time centred around Gold Coast’s Pick 5. Reports this week stated the two clubs were nearing a trade that would see the Crows land Rankine and a late pick in this year’s draft in exchange for Pick 5, a future third rounder and future fourth rounder. There could be some haggling over exactly which late pick Adelaide receives, or the Suns could’ve simply opted to use the weekend to sleep on it. Either way, you sense this will be one of the first completed on Monday.

Verdict: Suns receive Pick 5, future third rounder and future fourth rounder – Crows receive Rankine and Pick 52 (tied to Magpies).

JUNIOR RIOLI TO PORT ADELAIDE

West Coast is willing to let Junior Rioli walk to the pre-season draft if it doesn’t get what it’s after. Having rejected Port’s second-round compensation pick from Karl Amon’s free agency departure, the Eagles want Port’s Pick 8, but the Power are adamant that’s not in the frame for Rioli. The stalemate has led to both clubs getting involved in the Horne-Francis trade, which appears to be the most likely way Rioli is dealt. Should it stay separate though, a second-round pick is widely regarded as the best deal, but the Eagles have been trying to lure a player too. There’s reports the Eagles have asked questions of both Mitch Georgiades and Dan Houston, but the Power remain steadfast in their message that a player won’t be on the table for a Rioli deal. Xavier Duursma is another name floated, but that was quickly shut down.

Verdict (as above in Horne-Francis deal): Eagles receive Picks 8 and 12, Kangaroos receive Picks 2 and 3, Power receive Horne-Francis and Rioli, Giants receive Pick 1.