The AFLW finals are here for season seven, with eight teams still standing.
Minor premiers Brisbane earned themselves a home final, as did Melbourne who missed top spot by just one point.
Reigning premiers Adelaide remain in the hunt after finishing top four, earning themselves a double chance.
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Fox Footy’s AFLW expert Chyloe Kurdas previews why each of the remaining teams can and can’t win the flag.
1. Brisbane
Why they can: The Lions have elite fitness – they can outrun and outlast almost any team in the competition. They’ve got balance and depth in each zone which makes them hard to find a crack in their armour. The Lions have gone in unchanged or with minimal changes this year with the same group of players in each line, meaning the cohesion in each line is really strong. They are a well-oiled machine that’s running pretty smoothly at the moment.
Why they can’t: If they come up against a team that is as fit and has the same level of depth but uses the ball better, then that’s why they’ll lose it. Their deep defensive end hasn’t had to do a lot this year – they haven’t been pummelled with repeat inside 50 entries, so how practiced are they to repel a team that’s really strong offensively? They were beaten by Richmond so we know they can lose. Will their backline stand up under repeat pressure?
2. Melbourne
Why they can: Fitness and depth. Plus, the Demons have got elite ball users, reliability and they’ve got the hunger after the 2021 grand final loss. There’s a lot to be gained out of losses. Adelaide and Brisbane can both probably testify to that. What we’ve seen from Melbourne this year, their game has gone up another level and they’ve become highly offensive and they’re very similar to Brisbane in many ways.
Why they can’t: If they come up against a team that outlasts them, that’s where Brisbane comes in. An opponent who suffocates them, plays the pressure game, can outlast the four quarters and close down the space Melbourne need to execute their elite skills, then they are vulnerable.
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3. Adelaide
Why they can: They’ve got the talent, they’ve got depth on all the lines and there’s consistency in the playing group. They’ve got finals experience, and lots of it, and they know what it takes to win. On their day, they are as good as any team in the competition.
Why they can’t: They play a different style of footy to their probable opponent – and they are probably a little slower than the top two teams. The injury to Chelsea Randall is huge and could derail their premiership push. If Chelsea’s not free in her body, I don’t think they can win it. Plenty of players play on one leg, but they need her to be pain-free to win it. I don’t think they can win it without her fully fit.
4. Richmond
Why they can: I think their forwards can be super damaging and they’ve got the mids to bring the ball forward.
Why they can’t: I think their defence is susceptible, and they probably shot themselves in the foot by finishing fourth. They have to travel in the first week to Brisbane and it’s on the back of the fatigue that sets in late in the season dye to its part-time nature. The travel to Brisbane is not great.
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5. Geelong
Why they can: They have really good balance in each line. You look at their top five midfielders – they are averaging around 18-19 disposals and their top three are 20+ in disposals. (Rebecca) Webster, (Nina) Morrison, (Mikayla) Bowen, (Amy) McDonald and (Georgie) Prespakis – those five are really solid. Rachel Kearns back into the team gives the options. Shelley Scott up forward just spreads the defenders. They’ve got nothing to lose and they’ve got talent.
Why they can’t: Have they got the experience as a group yet? Probably not.
6. Collingwood
Why they can: They are really even across the board as a group – they don’t rely on one player to get 25 touches and do all the work. It’s been a real coming of age for Jordyn Allen and Lauren Butler who have impressed. They’ve got a lot of depth of talent in their forward structure.
Why they can’t: Their forward structure is still not working consistently. They’ve had problems for a few years now and it’s still not quite there. They get lots of shallow entries and opportunities, but just how it comes in and how it’s received, they haven’t got a consistent and reliable structure.
7. Western Bulldogs
Why they can: On their day, they can knock off big scalps. They’ve got really good experience through the middle and, they’ve got some really dangerous forwards. The move of Sarah Hartwig forward from back has been solid as well. Eleanor Brown needs to play, Rylie Wilcox, will be good if she can play – I think they need her.
Why they can’t: The experience is missing. They are probably a little bit light on as their forward structure is still not fully settled. They are a little short on some senior aged talent – but that will come. They haven’t played finals since 2018 when they won the flag. The players are super young emotionally, psychologically and physically.
8. North Melbourne
Why they can: Finishing eighth actually works in North’s favour as they don’t have to travel. I think in some ways, they’ve underperformed finishing eighth and it’s not a true reflection of their ability. The mids are fantastic, their defence is solid and they’ve finally found a change up in their forward line with Vikki Wall. Kim Rennie’s got to play as it allows Emma King to play forward. Emma Kearney is key to their success.
Why they can’t: Emma Kearney’s knee soreness – they need her to play. Their forward line has got to kick goals and accuracy continues to be their problem. They will kick themselves out of premiership contention if they can’t rectify this. But I think they can make the preliminary final from eighth if Kearney can play. If they get through Geelong … I think it opens up and they might be a chance.
