The 2024 home and away season is upon us.
To commemorate the occasion, Fox Footy’s expert First Crack panel – comprising host Anthony Hudson and analysts David King and Leigh Montagna – convened for a two-part special previewing the upcoming campaign.
The trio have run through their takes on 2024, including every club’s season outlook and prospective premiership credentials.
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ADELAIDE CROWS
2023: 10th (11-12, 116.8%)
Montagna: “I’ve got no doubt they’re on the right path. I think they’re heading in the right direction, it’s just whether this (year is) a dip year (or not). Does their defence stack up when they come up against teams that can stop their offence? If you can stop their offence, they’re vulnerable, I think, defensively with some experience and a little bit of injury, and maybe a bit of depth in that midfield. I’ve just got a concern it might be a bit of a ‘growing pain’ year for Adelaide, but no doubt they’re on the right path.”
King: “I think we’ll share those concerns because I just don’t think they’re good enough. I just don’t think, as a list, that they’re talented enough to rise significantly into that contention sort of area. It probably worries me, the glut of injuries they’ve got at this stage of (the) pre-season … there’s half a dozen at the moment that’s a real concern. I just don’t like entering the season banged up. I think the Crows will be around the mark again, probably just missing finals.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Just missing finals
Heavy bump rocks Adelaide clash | 00:57
BRISBANE LIONS
2023: 2nd (17-6, 123.1%) and lost Grand Final
Montagna: “If they maintain the rage and they’ve got the desire and hunger again to climb the mountain, they’ll be thereabouts.”
King: “I’m probably a little bit different. History tells you that if a coach doesn’t win one (a premiership) in their first five to six years, they don’t win one. I think the year to win it was last year, it’s difficult for interstate teams to come to the MCG and play effectively a home game at Collingwood’s venue, so that is difficult. But they’re the games you’ve got to win.”
Predicted finish
King: Top 4
Montagna: Top 4
Hudson: Top 4
CARLTON
2023: 5th (13-9-1, 113.3%) and lost preliminary final
Montagna: “They were by far the No. 1 scoring team from stoppage in the competition (last season). (They) still had issues with their ability to score off transition, the turnover game and their ball movement, so it’s been a big focus of their pre-season – to be more dynamic and improve that facet of the game because that’s the big area they can still work on.”
King: “It’s a bit of a myth, the Carlton forward 50. It’s not as dominant as it should be. We all talk about (Charlie) Curnow and the season that he had and a lot about Harry (McKay). (Jesse) Motlop is becoming a very good player, but the rest – the bits and pieces – they’re not the dominant forward 50 that we give them credit for. There’s a lot of scope for improvement there and I think that’s where the problem actually is – getting bang for buck. It is my biggest worry: Where will the goals come from if Charlie doesn’t have that year again? Is Harry absolutely going to stand up and kick 60 goals? If it’s not those two, where to? That, for me, is still a concern. I think (the) fourth, fifth, sixth player they pick in that forward 50 is not of the same calibre of the other contenders.”
Predicted finish
King: Top 4
Montagna: Top 4
Hudson: Top 8
Should the Carlton hype be this high? | 04:52
COLLINGWOOD
2023: 1st (18-5, 127.0%) and premiers
King: “I can see them improving drastically on what we saw in the last six-to-eight weeks (of last season). Not every player on this list needs to be a star because they’ve got three or four already.”
Montagna: “The Nick Daicos-(Jordan) De Goey one-two punch, for me, is now the best in the competition. I think (that) combination can take them as far as they want to go, they are that good and play that well together, we saw it (on) Grand Final day.”
Predicted finish
King: Top 4
Montagna: Top 4
Hudson: Top 4
Are Collingwood a shoo-in for 2024? | 04:20
ESSENDON
2023: 11th (11-12, 89.7%)
King: “I think the fans are sick of it, just being a so-so team. The talent has always read better than the results and that highlights it better than any other graph you’ll see.”
Montagna: “Their talent is there. You look across the board and there’s talent everywhere, but what’s the best mix? Where do they play? I’m looking at the midfield and I think there’s a lot of names in this midfield – Parish, Hobbs, Caldwell, Setterfield, Durham’s been thrown in there, Tsatas, Shiel, Perkins – but what’s their best combination? For me, it has to be built around Darcy Parish. I think he’s their No. 1 man in the midfield. He actually rates as one of the best midfielders in the game. Fourth for average clearances, third for disposals, third for score involvements, which would surprise some people. He’s their clearance man, he’s their Lachie Neale. I think they need to build their midfield around him.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Just missing finals
Can Essendon leaders become ‘ruthless’? | 04:35
FREMANTLE
2023: 14th (10-13, 96.7%)
King: “What they do, to me, hasn’t allowed them to score over the last three to four years. You can blame talent in the forward half, (but) I’m looking at where they win the ball back, how often they win the ball back and their ball movement. That’s been sub-AFL standard for a long time. I think they’ve got enough talent on this list to make a serious spike, but I just can’t endorse it without seeing the back-office influence.”
Montagna: “I think they’re close to playing finals, their DNA is going to be their contest and their defence, which it was in 2022 (when they played finals). And that’s OK, because we’ve seen teams play that way and go pretty deep into the finals. They’ve got to find that defensive integrity again that they had when they did have 15 wins.
If finals (are) not this year, I’m certain it will be next year.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Just missing finals
Geelong prepare for 2024 bounce-back | 00:45
GEELONG CATS
2023: 12th (10-12-1, 112.6%)
Montagna: “All the mail is they’ve trained twice as hard, three times as hard (this pre-season) as previous pre-seasons. For me, if you’re writing the Cats off, do it at your peril, because I still think there’s a lot to like about this group. When you look at their profile it stacks up really well, their only issue last year – and it was a glaring issue – was their ability to stop a score when it went in their defensive 50, it was horrible. But there (were) reasons for that. Jack Henry – who I rate highly – hardly played, (Sam) De Koning was banged up and I don’t think the (Esava) Ratugolea experiment at Geelong worked. I’m pretty bullish (that) they spike and they rebound again this year.”
King: “I see it differently. I’m just not sure. The great unknown of what’s under those star-factor players, that list pocket that holds (Mitch) Knevitt, (Toby) Conway, (Jhye) Clark, (Tanner) Bruhn, those guys. How good are they? Can they assume some control, some leadership of this footy club? Because the greats are coming to the end and they’ve leant on them for a long, long time. I’ve got my doubts. I think they’re too good to be really bad, but I think they’re too bad to be really good.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Top eight
Hudson: Just missing finals
King signs two-year extension with Suns | 00:33
GOLD COAST SUNS
2023: 15th (9-14, 91.7%)
Montagna: “When you do look at them my first thought is there’s so much (room) for improvement with this team. When you look at the players in that right age bracket, between 23 and 27, they’ve all still got another level to go to. (Jack) Lukosius, (Ben) King, (Ben) Ainsworth, Charlie Ballard, (Wil) Powell, etc. We can go through the list of names. He (Damien Hardwick) has got a lot to work with, he’s got the Academy kids coming in as well, there’s some excitement around them. It’s just going to be interesting to see how quickly they can adapt to Damien Hardwick’s game style. A lot of talk about the Richmond way, it’s what he’s going to bring to the football club, but how quickly can they adjust to that?”
King: “He’s got a system that I still think is the best that the game has seen. The way that they excite and explode and they basically turn every game into a turnover battle and you end up playing the old Richmond game, regardless of whether you’re designed to or not. I just love that Gold Coast (has) taken the risk, it’s caused enormous trauma internally to get Damien to this point. They get a guy up there now who has got all the stamps and stripes on the shoulders that say ‘I’m the man’. I’ve got the answers, this is how we play, this is what I need from you. I don’t think they’ll do it (win the premiership) this year, but I think this will be a significant step forward, whether that’s finals or not we’ll have our own opinions. They’re winning it (the premiership) in a couple of years.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Just missing finals
GWS GIANTS
2023: 7th (13-10, 107.1%) and lost preliminary final
Montagna: “Their system under coach Adam Kingsley, the way they play is the modern game. In those 17 of the last 18 premiers, the top three in the turnover game, top three in turnover differential, they are elite in that category. They were the best team in the competition in the second half of (last) year. They’ve got an elite, real stingy defence when Sam Taylor is fit and healthy.”
King: “My only query is can Toby Greene do it again? Such a dominant season (last year), it’s a huge volume from just one player, I’d love to see another forward step up. (Aaron) Cadman’s the talk, isn’t it? Everyone’s waiting for the No. 1 pick to stamp himself, but is he ready for that? He’s still very slight, I don’t think he’s quite there yet, so it leaves a lot to (Jesse) Hogan and Greene to get the job done in terms of scoreboard influence. You’d be a fool to leave them out of your eight.”
Predicted finish
King: Top 4
Montagna: Top 8
Hudson: Just missing finals
HAWTHORN
2023: 16th (7-16, 80.2%)
Montagna: “We just want to see some continued improvement. We know they’ve been a highly inconsistent team over the last couple of seasons. For me, this season I just want to see them bridge the gap and be more consistent with their performances. To do that, they need to start to build a bit of a defensive profile. Their midfield is becoming their strength off the back of Will Day and Jai Newcombe, who we know are going to be All-Australian-calibre players. Still a fair way off for me, in regards to being a finals team – they’re still a real work in progress.”
King: “I think they do have what’s going to be a (strong) forward line. I think they’ve found a couple of players, Connor Macdonald I think is going to become a serious AFL player, whether he’s a midfielder or (someone who) plays forward of the ball. Henry Hustwaite … I really like him, and we talk a lot about Newcombe. They’ve got enough to work with … (but) they’re going to struggle. They’re going to get some heavy scores kicked against them.”
Predicted finish
King: Bottom four
Montagna: Bottom four
Hudson: Bottom four
Demons captain denies club drug culture | 01:47
MELBOURNE
2023: 4th (16-7, 125.2%) and lost semi-final
Montagna: “They’ve only been outside the top four for a total of two weeks in three seasons. So, this is a really consistent, reliable and strong football team. I know everyone harps on the straight-sets exits, but there’s some factors there … Yes, we understand they lacked composure and weren’t able to finish their work. But I’m not jumping off Melbourne. I still think they’re in the right age demographic and are defensively so strong in the contest. Even their offence, they were sixth in the competition in points for — they averaged 90 points a game. Collingwood averaged 93, so it’s not like this team can’t score. They’ve just been let down by their ball movement and entries going inside 50. But I like the adjustments — I like (Harrison) Petty playing forward and (Shane) McAdam, (Jack) Billings adds a bit of class. I still think they’re really strong. We don’t talk enough about assistant coaches — Andrew McQualter coming across from Richmond to add a little bit of offence and ball movement … I’m certainly sticking with them this year.”
King: “I just think there’s too many self-inflicted wounds through one off-season and the stress of everything going on around the edges. You start wasting too much time on things outside of football. You stress the football club, not just these players, and it permeates through the group. I don’t think this list is as deep as what it was last year. They’ve allowed players to leave that weren’t probably in their best 20 players, but somewhere between 20 and 30. Guys like (James) Harmes, (James) Jordon, (Brodie) Grundy (move clubs) and (Michael) Hibberd retires. There’s a little changing of the guard with that next rung of (players), which puts more stress on those senior players to lead the way. I just think the stress on the football club will have an impact.”
Predicted finish
King: Just missing finals
Montagna: Top four
Hudson: Top four
Kingy: ‘Stress’ could be Demons’ undoing | 05:39
NORTH MELBOURNE
2023: 17th (3-20, 71.5%)
Montagna: “We understand where North Melbourne are at in their development, they’ve still got a lot of work to do. Their profile in all three phases is still pretty poor, but I think we can start to see them building something now, with the young run-and-gun midfielders and outside players they’ve drafted and brought to the club. It’ll be like Hawthorn, they might win some games but they’ll be scored against going the other way. The talls are no doubt an issue … That’s going to be the big factor for them that’s going to be costly. But, we like the way they’re going … We know they’re on the right track.”
King: “I think this is the first time we can see it … Colby McKercher is as good a kick the Kangaroos have had come in the doors for quite some time. Unfortunately, the fate of the footy club is going to revolve around those guys. (George) Wardlaw, (Harry) Sheezel, McKercher, and then forward of centre (Nick) Larkey. That’s the reality. They’re young bodies, you’re asking a lot of them … All the concerns are down back. Who’s centre-half-back? Who’s full-back? How much do they bleed? There’ll be some big numbers kicked on them through the course of the year, but you’ve just got to push forward.”
Predicted finish
King: Bottom four
Montagna: Bottom four
Hudson: Bottom four
Simpkin hopes to see Thomas play again | 01:12
PORT ADELAIDE
2023: 3rd (17-6, 112.7%) and lost semi-final
Montagna: “Do they stack up against the very best? They’ll win a lot of home and away games again, for me, playing at home with the midfield they’ve got, but does their system and their personnel stack up against the very best? They have an identifiable brand, it’s been the same for a number of years. They rely on winning clearance and contest and playing a really strong forward-half game and it holds them in pretty good stead. I think it’ll hold them in good stead for the home and away season again, but as we’ve touched on, it does leave them exposed defensively when they have to defend. I think we’ll see a lot of games where (Aliir) Aliir and (Esava) Ratugolea take a lot of intercept marks when the game’s in control and they’ve got it on their terms. The question mark that I need to see (answered) this year is when the game’s not on their terms and they’re going to have to defend and hold fort against the good teams that you need to in the big games, can they do it?”
King: “I like the fact they’ve gone after these guys (during the trade period). We’re going to wait and see whether it works — and if it doesn’t work, how do you then readjust?
In my opinion, they’re still a rung below the very best teams in the competition. I think they panic-bought Ken Hinkley late last year when they really didn’t need to, it was the perfect time to have a fresh voice.”
Predicted finish
King: Top eight
Montagna: Top eight
Hudson: Top eight
Hefty ban awaits Sam Powell-Pepper | 01:03
RICHMOND
2023: 13th (10-12-1, 93.6%)
King: “I think a fresh voice is good for this group. New methods, I’m excited by what they can do. Now, where that takes them, who knows? I’m really excited about the role for Shai Bolton to be playing more inside the forward 50. Can he have a Toby Greene-type year? This is the sort of talent this guy is. The worry for me is that, a bit like Joel Selwood leaving Geelong, you don’t lose players like (Jack) Riewoldt and (Trent) Cotchin and roll on unaffected. It will hurt … Just what impact it has on their season, who knows?”
Montagna: “It’s going to be a challenge for Adem Yze because it’s not going to be a full-blown rebuild with this team. It’s a transition phase because they still have a big core of their group that are 27 and under. It’s (about) how quickly they can transition these under-22s – Thomson Dow, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Maurice) Rioli (Jnr), (Josh) Gibcus, Samson Ryan … Judson Clarke. Giving games to these guys and seeing how quickly they can find their next wave of players that can forge finals and beyond (will be the key).”
Predicted finish
King: Bottom four
Montagna: Bottom four
Hudson: Bottom four
New star shines as Saints smash Bombers | 01:18
ST KILDA
2023: 6th (13-10, 107.8%) and lost elimination final
Montagna: “Of course, their biggest room for improvement was their ability to score. Going inside 50, the connection with a young forward line at times … It’s been a big focus of theirs over summer, they’ve brought in personnel deliberately for that reason that can run and kick and add to the outside game. I really like the way that they’re heading, I can’t see with a Ross Lyon team why they would go backwards with another year (in) that system, the development of all these young that players we’ve spoken about. We know the names that are there, along with a fit and healthy Max King, Rowan Marshall, Jack Steele … I think it sets up really nicely for the Saints to have another tilt at finals.”
King: “They are going to be one of the teams to watch this year, they’re going to be one of the most watchable teams in ‘24. We talk a lot about the excitement of half-back counter-punch – (Bradley) Hill, (Liam) Henry and (Nasiah) Wanganeen-Milera. Wanganeen-Milera’s going to be a top-liner … Riley Bonner has been a tremendous acquisition … Paddy Dow will play a role for them, but I just think it’ll be their run and excitement and explosion off half-back. I’ve got them (the Saints) as one team that can push into the top four.”
Predicted finish
King: Top eight
Montagna: Top eight
Hudson: Top eight
Parker breaks arm in innocuous incident | 00:31
SYDNEY SWANS
2023: 8th (12-10-1, 110.0%) and lost elimination final
Montagna: “For me, the toughest team to assess to try and work out where to put (is) Sydney. They were 2-8 against top-eight teams last year, they’ve got some young talent, we know about that, (Errol) Gulden and Chad Warner and Nick Blakey’s an absolute star … For me, it’s going to rest on their four All-Australians.
King: “They’ve been given the best list free kick of all time with Brodie Grundy. At 29 years of age, low kilometres on the clock, he’s a dual All-Australian, dual best-and-fairest … I can see them really bouncing, really bouncing. They get three or four players that they’re going to play – Brodie’s definitely going to play (and) James Jordon is chronically underrated, I think he’ll play a lot of minutes in this midfield … I’m excited about where they can go.”
Predicted finish
King: Top eight
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Top four
WEST COAST EAGLES
2023: 18th (3-20, 53.0%)
King: “It’s really hard to talk about teams at the absolute bottom of a rebuild. This club refuses to accept mediocrity, which puts pressure on everyone at the football club. It puts pressure on your senior leaders, guys like (Jeremy) McGovern, (Tom) Barrass, (Elliot) Yeo, Gaff, Kelly to stand up and to elevate their football, which, to be fair, has been subpar for a little while now. They’ve got to present better and they’ve got to play better … This is the bottom of a rebuild, so you’ve got to temper your expectations with the Eagles.”
Montagna: “It’s going to be a slow burn. But, we are starting to see these youngsters (emerge). Continue to develop the game style for the future, keep getting games into these kids and just see if they can be more competitive off the back of these senior players.”
Predicted finish
King: Bottom four
Montagna: Bottom four
Hudson: Bottom four
Bulldogs draftee looks for Rd 1 spot | 01:36
WESTERN BULLDOGS
2023: 9th (12-11, 108.7%)
King: “I’m a believer in ‘Bevo’. I know he’s unconventional … And not everyone loves the way that he operates. He’s got, in my opinion, the best set of talls going around that he’s had for some time. He’s not going to get a better set than Tim English, Sam Darcy, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton, Liam Jones down back … They are an outstanding set of talls. I’m really excited about where they can go with Sam Darcy … It’s time to make, I think, Naughton a secondary or tertiary product in terms of your targets in the forward 50. Give Darcy and Jamarra the reins.”
Montagna: “For me, I think they need to just figure out who they are. What do they look like? What’s their system? How do they want to have an identifiable brand? They’ve been so consistently inconsistent. They go on runs of wins, runs of losses. They’re a great clearance team but they don’t score from clearance because what’s their system? Their ball movement off half-back, they’ve got great kickers but then they don’t seem to transition the ball well, so they need to figure out what it looks like.”
Predicted finish
King: Top 8
Montagna: Just missing finals
Hudson: Top 8
