Knights (14) v Tigers (17)
Friday 8pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Somehow, the Knights are only three points outside the top eight — and there’s probably no better opportunity for them to make an unlikely finals surge than against the struggling Tigers. Tim Sheens’ side pushed the Sharks for at least a half last week, but class told in the end. The Tigers will have Api Koroisau (jaw) and Alex Twal (suspension) back, with Daine Laurie and Brent Naden added to an extended bench. Kalyn Ponga is starting to look ominous for Newcastle and will want better memories than the last time these two sides met, when he was heavily concussed in round two leading to an extended period on the sidelines. Knights by 10.
Adam Pengilly
Bulldogs (15) v Broncos (2)
Saturday 3pm, Belmore Sports Ground
It was about this time last year, when Brisbane was sitting pretty in fourth spot, that the wheels fell off.
It feels like the Broncos are in a better spot now, but a stumble here will raise fears of another fadeout. Canterbury are coming off their best performance of the season — a win over South Sydney — and will be bolstered by playing at Belmore. However, this is a mammoth task, even though Payne Haas (ankle) is missing for Brisbane. The Bulldogs have conceded 180 points in four games, a disturbing stat given the Broncos lead the league for line breaks. This is a win the Broncos need to bank; their run home — against the Rabbitohs, Roosters, Cowboys, Eels, Raiders and Storm — is the toughest of any contender. Broncos by 8.
Adrian Proszenko
Sea Eagles (10) v Cowboys (9)
Saturday 5.30pm, 4 Pines Park
This game is crucial for both teams. It was a slow start to the season for North Queensland, but they’re starting to peak at the right time.
Api Koroisau, Brandon Smith, Daly Cherry-Evans, Murray Taulagi and Felise Kaufusi.Credit: Getty/NRL Photos
Manly leak points on their edges, so wingers Semi Valemei and Murray Taulagi will play a big part in getting points on the board. As it usually does, Manly’s success will come down to Daly Cherry-Evans’ kicking game, and Josh Schuster plays his best footy when he gets to pair the skipper in the halves, but he needs to come up with some tricky end-of-set plays to get the team through the Cowboys’ line. Reuben Garrick slotted in nicely at fullback in their victory over the Roosters, and I imagine the intensity and closeness of this game will be the same. Sea Eagles by 1.
Billie Eder
Roosters (13) v Storm (4)
Saturday 7.35pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The cavalry are slowly returning for the Roosters with Brandon Smith (thumb) back to face his old club, and Joseph Suaalii (concussion) to resume his season on the wing.
A trimmer Brandon Smith during his comeback match in the NSW Cup.Credit: Dean Sewell
The time starts now for the Roosters if they want to be considered title threats. The Storm were humbled by Penrith before the bye, and were humming prior to that. Should their Origin contingent back up, they should prove too strong in what will be a cracking game. Storm by 2.
Christian Nicolussi
Warriors (6) v Sharks (3)
Sunday 2pm, Go Media Stadium
Match of the round. Who would have thought? The Warriors’ sensational season, it felt, found a pivotal moment in the big win over the injury-depleted Eels last week.
They’re on track to the make the finals for the first time since 2018, and perhaps their most stirring win was a comeback success against the Sharks in the wet. Josh Curran (suspension) has been named in the starting side for the Warriors. The Sharks keep quietly going about their business and are comfortably inside the top four, but they keep getting the reminded about their poor record against top eight teams. Can they change it this week? Sharks by 1.
Adam Pengilly
Dolphins (12) v Panthers (1)
Sunday 4.05pm, Kayo Stadium
Don’t look now, but Penrith are top of the table, approaching a fully fit roster and prohibitive odds in premiership betting markets already.
Nathan Cleary.Credit: Getty Images
A campaign can change on a halfback’s hamstring, of course, but Nathan Cleary working his way back toward taking the field is ominous given the Panthers’ form without him. Their last-start recovery from 14-0 down against Melbourne in Melbourne ranks as one of the most impressive wins of the season. The Dolphins are still hanging in the fight and get Felise Kaufusi back from suspension, though how honest they keep Penrith on a Sunday afternoon likely depends how many the visitors have backing up from Origin. Panthers by 10.
Dan Walsh
Eels (7) v Titans (11)
Sunday 6.15pm, CommBank Stadium
One of the more Origin-impacted contests of the weekend with seven stars under a selection question mark right up until kick-off. Both sides are smarting from vastly different losses: Parramatta were poleaxed by the Warriors, while the Gold Coast coughed up yet another fantastic start against the Dolphins. Despite sitting just one point outside the top eight, they won’t be there come finals time as a result. Provided the weather behaves, there could be points aplenty in this one; the Eels’ 26.47 scored per game game is behind only Cronulla this year and the Titans’ 23.44 ranks them sixth in the competition. Defence remains the issue – Des Hasler can’t get his hands on them soon enough. Eels by 10.
Dan Walsh
