Epic prelim rivals surge to top as big fears emerge for ‘22 finalists: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The story of 2022 is threatening to become the story of 2023 with a new team grabbing the No.1 ranking, with plenty of movement after another dramatic round.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (2-0, 155.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Not only are the Magpies playing the AFL’s most exciting-to-watch brand of footy right now, but they’re also playing its best. They are a scoring machine the likes of which we haven’t seen since Adelaide in 2017; the question isn’t just who’s going to stop them, but how. Do you try and restrict them somehow? Do you go the other way and outscore them, knowing their breakneck style does open up their defence the other way? Or, more specifically, do you hope they can’t pull off their risky kicks? (They’re attempting the third-hardest kicks in the comp right now, and rank No.1 in Champion Data’s kick rating.) Last year this was a different team – less able to win it at the source and more reliant on chaos (and, as we may have mentioned a few times, close games going their way). Now they’re just good at almost everything. They’re a deserving flag favourite right now… but it’s March.

Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Friday night

2. SYDNEY SWANS (2-0, 232.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Has there been less hype around a reigning Grand Finalist that’s on top of the ladder? The Suns and Hawks haven’t provided John Longmire’s men with the toughest of opposition so far – in fact the latter both looked and played like the Brisbane Bears – but Sydney has just brutally gone about its business. As we often say, good teams win, but great teams win by a lot. Well, the Swans are second for points scored and second for points against, so they’re doing something right. In fact, a lot of things right. They return to the scene of their brilliant qualifying final triumph looking more than ready to take advantage of a Gawn-less Melbourne.

Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

3. MELBOURNE (1-1, 124.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

If the Brownlow was truly about the AFL’s most valuable player, in terms of what the team loses when they’re out, Max Gawn might already be a multiple-time winner. And that’s even with Brodie Grundy at the club. It’s Gawn’s versatility, and impact both in defence (where he’s an intercept mark machine) and forward (where his kicking can let him down, but his height still works), that has made him arguably the game’s greatest modern ruckman. He is more than just a big midfielder; he is a jack-of-all-tall-trades. So while Steven May’s likely return will be massive, Gawn’s four-to-six-week absence will still hurt the Demons plenty. We’re not sure whether the Swans can stretch their defence enough to take advantage of it, and the Dees’ midfield should be better (and healthier) than it was in the 2022 finals series, so Sunday’s game is a total toss-up for us.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

4. BRISBANE LIONS (1-1, 79.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Until the blackout, that was the exact Brisbane side we’d signed up to watch this season – gun midfielders galore protecting the defence, plus exciting forwards firing and allowing others to have a quiet night without the team struggling to score. And then we had that weird post-lights out phase where the Demons surged back and even threatened an unthinkable upset. We’re as much about the numbers as anyone in footy media, but even we have to admit that phase just felt like it was about mindset; the Lions were playing out the string of a comfortable win, while the Demons were urged to at least show some fight. It does not give us any real reasons to worry about Brisbane. Round 1 was a bad blip; beat the Bulldogs as they should, and they’re clearly back in the top four mix.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday night

5. RICHMOND (1-0-1, 123.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

The Tigers were underwhelming for large patches of the win over Adelaide, but were so good in the other patches it didn’t matter. That’s the positive. But now they have to deal with a blow to their defence, which is already their flaw. It’s not like Nathan Broad is a superstar but losing any part of their back six for the next month of footy is going to hurt. They’ve got a brutal four weeks to come – Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Sydney and Melbourne. So just our three highest-ranked teams and a Bulldogs side that’ll probably be playing for its season… no big deal.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday night

6. CARLTON (1-0-1, 105.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

Against the Cats, the Blues both felt incredibly Carlton-y and incredibly not Carlton-y. The former was the fact they were dominating the game but failing to take advantage on the scoreboard – when Jeremy Cameron kicked those two goals to start the last quarter you just thought ‘well of COURSE the Blues will blow this’. But then they didn’t. The defence has been incredibly solid thus far, with Lewis Young continuing to stand up after an under-the-radar solid end of last season. And how much better does this team look with two good wingmen? Blake Acres has done about what you’d expect but Ollie Hollands is a gem, and likewise the hard-nosed Lachie Cowan. Nailing a draft and getting an impact from it that quickly could be the exact boost the Blues needed to rise into the top four mix. And remember, this first fortnight was supposed to be the tough part of their start. It’s GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda and West Coast over the next five weeks. They should at least be 5-1-1.

Next game: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Saturday twilight

7. GEELONG (0-2, 86%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

They’re going to be fine. They could’ve still beaten Carlton – on expected score, the margin should’ve been just eight points – despite Jeremy Cameron being both their best forward and best midfielder on the night. Their decision-making has been strangely questionable, and the midfield probably isn’t going to suddenly become elite, but a lot of what’s going wrong is a designed effort to make changes. They’re putting players in new roles, and trying out some fresh faces, because Chris Scott and the coaching staff knew they couldn’t just run it back and repeat 2022. (Especially after all of their injuries.) And now the fixture opens up – with the Suns, Hawks, Eagles, Swans, Bombers and Crows on the docket, the premiers should at least be 4-4. And remember, last year they were 5-4.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium, Sunday early

8. PORT ADELAIDE (1-1, 91.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

OK, so we’re back where we started, believing the Power are a not-quite-top-four-but-still-good side. The Power were made to look poor by Collingwood, but we suspect quite a few clubs will suffer that same fate, and this Showdown feels like it’s timed perfectly. It’s a great opportunity for the Port midfield which disappointed last Saturday to shine, especially against a Crows outfit whose midfield has hardly impressed this year. Dominate at the source and there’s every reason to believe the rest of Port’s game will be unlocked, like we saw against Brisbane. Remember that? (Having the Power eighth and Lions fourth a week after that game is one of the many reasons the Power Rankings format is impossible.)

Next game: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday night

9. ST KILDA (2-0, 171%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

Through all of the negative chatter in the pre-season about the Saints, we made sure to point out they weren’t that bad last year. Obviously missing finals from an 8-3 start stinks but they still did well against a difficult fixture, and the signs in the first half of the season were very promising indeed. Whatever Brett Ratten was able to unlock in that period, Ross Lyon has found at the back of the cupboard – and combined with his trademark defensive tactics, they’ve done a heck of a job stifling opposition ball movement. There’s only one dilemma… did they make Fremantle and the Bulldogs look that bad? Or did Fremantle and the Bulldogs make the Saints look good? We won’t know how much credit or debit to give out until we see all of those teams play a few more games. But if the Saints start 4-0, as they certainly could with the Bombers and Suns to come, finals are a clear possibility.

Next game: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday night

10. ESSENDON (2-0, 160%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

And now we have to start asking how much of this is real. There’s every chance the Bombers can be a light version of Collingwood 2022 – a finalist who plummeted down the ladder the next year, bringing in a new coach who unlocked the talent that was already there and returned them to September. We would suggest Essendon’s ceiling is something like seventh or eighth but the fact we’re even considering them reaching that ceiling is impressive. They haven’t beaten a particularly good team yet, and we’re still not quite sure how good St Kilda is (especially without Jack Steele), but the facts remain – with GWS up in Round 4 (then Melbourne), Essendon could quite easily be 4-1 heading into Anzac Day. What a game that’ll be if they are.

Next game: St Kilda at the MCG, Saturday night

11. FREMANTLE (0-2, 88.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

We watched (and wrote up) David King’s analysis on The First Crack on Sunday night about how the Dockers play a slow game style that’s out of date in modern footy and nodded in furious agreement. Justin Longmuir’s side is talented – when they go into the Derby this Sunday they’ll arguably have a more talented player in almost every position – but they are not doing themselves any favours with both their play (dropping marks like crazy) and their tactics. Right now if we had to pick two 2022 finalists to drop out, it’d be Freo and the Bulldogs. The latter missing the eight would be a disappointment, for sure, but they only just snuck into eighth last year. The Dockers are young and finished fifth last year, nearly fourth; they were supposed to only get better. Instead… yuck. Their draw opens up over the next few weeks – they should get some much-needed wins on the board… but they should have beaten North Melbourne at home, too.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Sunday twilight

12. WESTERN BULLDOGS (0-2, 51.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

We have questioned aspects of Luke Beveridge’s coaching quite a few times in this column over the last 12 months – he still hasn’t led his team to a top-four finish, and it seems unlikely to happen this year either – but now the pressure is really starting to build. With Melbourne up first it was always going to be a difficult start, but the Bulldogs were pretty woeful against St Kilda, in a manner that didn’t just create worries about their style of play, but about the players’ belief in Beveridge himself. He has always been a coach who was able to motivate his players when he needed to; he needs to on Thursday night. A loss, going into away games against Port Adelaide and Fremantle, could almost end their year. At which point the question becomes about Beveridge’s future.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, Thursday night

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (0-2, 64.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

Perhaps it was worse because we tipped the Suns, but we were incredibly disappointed with their loss to Essendon. For a second straight year it feels like a loss to the Bombers at Marvel Stadium has proven their season won’t come to anything. Their forward line is performing worse than it did without Ben King; their defence let Kyle Langford tear them apart and made silly mistakes, capped off by the Charlie Ballard strike which gave away a goal when the game was close (and saw him eventually at the Tribunal); their midfield is just middling. This was a year where the internal expectation was they would play finals; it is not impossible to imagine them doing it from here, but if they don’t beat Geelong, it’ll be close.

Next game: Geelong Cats at Heritage Bank Stadium, Sunday early

14. GWS GIANTS (1-1, 98.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

It’s hard to tell how much of the loss to West Coast was about being exhausted from the epic Round 1 win, and how much was the personnel losses, and how much was the trip west, and how much was the Eagles being better… but they’re all to blame. It’s fine; the Giants aren’t going to be some sneaky top eight dark horse, like some were proclaiming them after the Adelaide comeback, but they’re not really supposed to be yet. They’re a middling team that’ll end up in the six to nine-win range – definitely better than the spoon, and they’ll show progress over the season, but they’re not in that next tier yet.

Next game: Carlton at Giants Stadium, Saturday twilight

15. ADELAIDE CROWS (0-2, 77.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

We’re a bit torn on the Crows. They still showed promise against Richmond, basically playing a pretty damn good half of footy (from halfway through the second term to halfway through the fourth, when they came from 45 points down to within one)… but also a pretty woeful half. After all they trailed by seven goals, got rid of that margin, and still lost by five. We thought there’d be some growth this year but – and we get the feeling this is going to be a constant theme – Rory Laird aside, the midfield just isn’t good enough. Maybe ‘not good enough yet’. Or maybe the solution isn’t at the club yet; we don’t know and neither do they. If they lose the Showdown, this becomes a year that’s purely about finding out.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday night

16. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-0, 103.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

Let’s not let all of the drama hide the fact North Melbourne deserved to beat Fremantle – well, on expected score it was 70-62 Dockers, but certainly on the vibe of the thing, the Kangaroos were the better side. The cliche is that getting experience in a close finish like that should only help them; moments like Harry Sheezel’s toepoke show you may not need it. Against Hawthorn they’ll be favourites, for probably the first time since last year’s Eagles Covid game, which is fully deserved. Is there a chance the Roos are simply bad (not terrible)? Or even… mediocre? If so that’s a massive leap forwards.

Next game: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday afternoon

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-1, 108.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

Sunday’s win over the Giants, while helped by the fact their opponents were down several stars and exhausted from their brutal Round 1 match, was the first sign of life we’ve seen from the Eagles for some time. It also showed their clear pre-season plan, to try and add some much-needed pace and excitement into their ball movement, had a chance of working. There will be teething issues but it’s a change they have to make, and scoring 100 points was a big tick. The Fremantle defence will be much tougher to crack, but if the Kangaroos can come across the country and win, the Eagles can definitely claim the Derby. What a moment that’d be – arguably ruining their rivals’ season… in Round 3!

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday twilight

18. HAWTHORN (0-2, 42.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Here’s our problem with the Hawks discourse at the moment – the question being asked, of Sam Mitchell on Monday night’s Footy Classified and more broadly in the media, is ‘have you cut too deep?’ But that assumes there’s a virtue to being a seven or eight-win side rather than a three or four-win side. How exactly does it benefit Hawthorn to stay where they were the last three years, when they finished in the bottom six and had rare moments of competitiveness (like beating Geelong last year)? OK, the fans get to celebrate a few more wins and their games are a bit more dramatic to watch. Sure, that’s nice. But in a pure footballing sense the Hawks have done the right thing to improve their chances of winning a flag any time soon, and questioning it belies an understanding of that.

Next game: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday afternoon