How did we get here?
It’s the question the West Coast Football Club – and wider AFL community – would be and is asking of the proud club after its horror drop off.
No team is immune from going through some form of rebuild period as part of the natural AFL cycle, but the Eagles’ rapid decline has seemingly been more drastic.
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After all, it was only five years ago West Coast won a premiership after defeating Collingwood in that infamous 2018 Grand Final. That Eagles list, in theory, was set up for many more years of flag contention, ranked the seventh-most experienced in the AFL in average games played and 11th-most experienced in average age.
After a mini dip in 2019, the Eagles went into the following season – albeit, ultimately, a very compromised 2020 campaign – as the flag favourites after landing Tim Kelly – a season they missed out on finals altogether.
And even this year, some were picking Adam Simpson’s side to bounce back from its catastrophic two-win 2022 season and get back in the finals hunt, as if last year was some sort of arbitration.
It’s like no-one – not even the club itself – wanted to believe this Eagles side was bad before it hit the footy world between the eyes in 2023, culminating in a club-record 171-point loss against Sydney on the weekend – the equal fourth-biggest loss in VFL/AFL history.
Beyond that, West Coast has suffered a further two of its top seven biggest ever-losses in 2023.
It’s put enormous pressure on Simpson and company, with just three wins from the club’s last 36 matches in the most stark evidence of where it’s at.
There’s a view that perhaps West Coast took too long to realise that bleak reality in a dangerous place for any club.
While wholesale injuries and Covid-related problems have been a key factor in more recent times, the list management strategy from the last several years simply has to come under the microscope in leading West Coast to its current position, on track for its second wooden spoon since the club’s AFL inception in 1986.
Heck, there’s even been some calls that this Eagles side is among the worst in the game’s history.
And so foxfooty.com.au runs through the key moves that have contributed to the Eagles’ current woes, also looking ahead to what looming calls need to be made.
CONTRACT CALLS THAT HAVEN’T PAID THE BILLS
Sure, there’s an element of bad luck to this, but a host of key contract calls have backfired immensely, with the club not getting a return on investment after it went all-in during its premiership run.
In fact, seven Eagles were listed in the Herald Sun’s 2023 rich list of the 100 highest paid AFL players – including two in the top five and all featuring in the top 55 – showing how top-heavy the list is. Using the figures listed, those seven players roughly add up to $5.8 million of the club’s total $14 million salary cap (41 per cent), notwithstanding the potential of front-loading or back-ending contracts.
It’s headlined by Jeremy McGovern, who in 2018 became the highest-paid footballer in Western Australia after turning his back on free agency and penning a monster $6 million, five-year extension with the club.
Though he made his fourth-straight – and most recent – All-Australian team the following year in 2019 when he was arguably the premier defender in the competition, injuries have seen McGovern play only 40 games since 2020 including three appearances this year.
Similarly, Elliot Yeo in 2017 signed his own huge five-year extension as part of a brilliant breakout stretch in the utility’s career where he claimed two All-Australians (2017 and 2019) and two best fairests (2017 and 2018).
Unfortunately though, Yeo has barely been on the park in recent times due to ongoing setbacks, playing in just 33 games since 2020.
In the cases of both McGovern and Yeo, even when they’ve been been available, they’ve been well below their best previous heights, although the latter hasn’t been afforded any real continuity.
Skipper Luke Shuey has also had multiple injury problems including playing 43 games since 2020. Not that the Eagles would’ve ever genuinely considered trading their captain, who claimed Norm Smith medal honours in 2018 a year after signing a four-year extension. But for the majority of that contract, they just didn’t get enough production out of the midfielder.
More recently, West Coast last year handed Nic Naitanui a two-year extension despite the ruckman only making eight appearances during the season due to injury.
Of course, the 33-year old will now miss the entirety of 2023 with an Achilles issue amid questions over his playing future.
‘Under 14s stuff’ – Eagles flaws exposed | 03:03
Injuries have been an unfortunate ongoing theme at the Eagles, but at what stage should the club have taken more accountability over a clear pattern of behaviour – and been more proactive in addressing them? – by whatever means.
Separate to injuries – and perhaps most infamously, Andrew Gaff was locked away by the club in 2018 on a long-term deal that had triggers until 2024 despite heavy interest from Victorian clubs.
As brutal as it sounds, this would’ve been the sensible time to part ways with Gaff, who was coming off an All-Australian season, and land a nice package in return, with the wingman struggling to recapture his best form since.
Other than Yeo, who turns 30 in October, the other aforementioned names are on the wrong side of 30 and have lost value at the trade table.
Yes, foresight is 2020, and retaining each individual appeared to make sense in isolation. But as a collection, they’ve very much hurt – and handicapped – the club.
With more forward thinking – like Hawthorn last off-season – West Coast could’ve got something in return for at least one of them three or four years ago and fast-tracked its overall development.
TRADES, RECRUITING AND COMPROMISED DRAFTS
While contract calls on Eagles already on the list have been an issue, so has the recruiting side of things – and neglecting the draft.
The all-in move for Tim Kelly in 2019 has clearly been the biggest blemish of those. It’s not a knock on Kelly, nor a knock on the Eagles necessarily considering the club thought it was still in the premiership window and took a big swing. Any other side would’ve done it.
And yes, Kelly, 28, is finally flourishing in 2023 in his best season yet as an Eagle after overcoming his own injury problems.
Call it bad fortune or blind faith, but the reality is that the move has likely set the Eagles a ways back.
The deal saw West Coast trade away two first-round picks and a second-rounder to land Kelly from Geelong after the midfielder was coming off a career-best 2019 All-Australian season – and hand him a big-money deal.
It effectively denied the Eagles of having access to any top-end draft talent during their recent downward spiral when they should’ve been retooling with more youth.
Of course, it’s entirely possible West Coast would’ve been similarly placed now even if it passed on Kelly. But they’d at least have a few more kids through the doors, and getting him certainly exacerbated the club’s current issues of being devoid of young star power and talent.
West Coast in recent years has also kept topping up its list by adding the likes of Alex Witherden, Zac Langdon and Samo Petrevski-Seton, who, despite costing very little in terms of draft capital, indicated the club’s priorities at the time and potentially took games away from younger players that could’ve been more developed now.
With regards to what those recruits have tangibly brought to the table, it’d be fair to say none of them have quite panned out.
BLOODS BATH! Eagles worst ever loss | 02:46
Neglecting the draft has clearly been costly, with Campbell Chesser in 2021 marking the first time since 2017 the Eagles had a first-round pick.
But with injuries cruelling the early stages of Chesser’s career (again, there’s a distinct ongoing theme here), it’s largely left Reuben Ginbey – and to a lesser degree, fellow 2022 first-round draftee Elijah Hewett – as the only young players who’ve shown genuine promise and star-factor qualities on the Eagles’ list in an overall worrying spot for the 18th-placed club.
Even going further back, West Coast’s only other first-rounder beyond Chesser, Ginbey and Hewett since 2017 has been Jarrod Brander, who moved to GWS after four years at the Eagles before being delisted.
WHAT LIES AHEAD … AND THE BIG DECISIONS TO MAKE
None of what’s happened ultimately matters anymore, it’s what the Eagles do from here. They probably have the biggest calls to make of any club at season’s end – and need to be ruthless with those calls.
Everything must be geared towards long-term gain, even if it means more pain in the short-term and the potential for 2024 to be an even more dire year on field.
This is a club that will have eight players aged 30 years or older by the end of the year and is still yet to properly enter full-blown rebuild mode.
First and foremost, West Coast will need to decide on the future of a host of a players coming out of contract at season’s end including Luke Shuey, Alex Witherden, Jack Petruccelle, Jake Waterman, Luke Edwards, Luke Foley, Samo Petrevski-Seton and Xavier O’Neill, while Shannon Hurn seems likely to retire
Shuey just hasn’t been able to get his body right in recent years to cast some doubt over the 33-year old’s playing future, with a captaincy handover to Oscar Allen seemingly inevitable.
Meanwhile Jamie Cripps and Jeremy McGovern are reportedly set to have their contracts extended, the latter on a much cheaper deal to his current lucrative salary.
On that topic, West Coast next season is set to have Andrew Gaff and Elliot Yeo come off its books to give the club the most flexibility it’s had in some time.
It’ll help West Coast’s pursuit of the likes of Bulldogs pair Tim English and Aaron Naughton, who are both from Western Australia. Trying to lure such homegrown talent, like always, should be the strategy, with Port Adelaide’s Mitch Georgiades also in the Eagles’ sights.
West Coast Eagles Press Conference | 05:13
Finding a long-term replacement for Nic Naitanui in the ruck – either through internal development or from another club – is also a pressing matter, making English a dream target.
Beyond 2024, even more cap space will open up when Jack Darling and Tim Kelly come out of contract.
In terms of key priorities for now, perhaps the biggest call will be whether the club, presuming it remains 18th, opts to keep Pick 1 – and likely use it on Harley Reid – or trade it for multiple first-round selections – given the relative lack of young talent on its list.
Splitting the No. 1 pick could help with a more cohesive and conventional rebuild, particularly considering there’s a host of strong WA-based talent in this year’s draft pool.
But it’s an even more intriguing dilemma considering likely Pick 1 Reid is one of the best exciting draft prospects in recent times, with the 18-year old showcasing his elite talent earlier this month by kicking three goals in the opening nine minutes for Vic Country against South Australia.
Brisbane Lions great Jonathan Brown recently said on Fox Footy that if West Coast chooses to keep the pick, it’d want to be confident Reid is going to be a generational superstar like Chris Judd. That’s a fair name to live up to.
Plus West Coast has its own precedent for expanding its draft hand, having traded its No. 2 pick last year in exchange for selections 8 and 12, which became Ginbey and Hewett.
Is Reid the answer or not? It’s the big question Eagles bosses and fans alike will be contemplating between now and October.
This club can’t afford to make too many more missteps though as it looks to drag itself out of its lowest ebb in its proud 37-year history.
