They’re coming … or are they? Carlton’s marketing department must be itching to relaunch a campaign while the Blues are undefeated and sitting third on the AFL table.
But once bitten, twice shy should echo over any thought of being convinced about Carlton’s path to putting fear into their rivals and genuine faith in their fans.
Harry McKay reacts during the season-opening draw with Richmond.Credit: Getty Images
To be frank, despite the win-loss column, Carlton’s start to the premiership race has been underwhelming and lacklustre.
There is the draw with Richmond in round one, followed by a narrow win against Geelong and a very lucky escape against Greater Western Sydney at the weekend. The two wins have been ugly and have papered over some nasty cracks. The Blues simply aren’t still there yet. They might be coming but they have not arrived.
A ridiculous call of umpire dissent gifted Carlton a match-saving goal in the dying stages against the Giants on Saturday. Scrap that moment and Carlton’s start to the season would look significantly less impressive at 1-1-1.
Sometimes winning is a curse. It can lead to a false sense of security and overconfidence. Teams and players are less likely to scrutinise their performances as diligently as they would after a bad loss.
Second-year Carlton coach Michael Voss’ alarm is ringing loudly; hopefully, he isn’t hitting the snooze button.
Voss’ team has lost its greatest strength – scoring from stoppages. Last season, Carlton ranked fourth in this category. This weapon has disappeared this season; Carlton rank 17th in this indicator.
While Brownlow medallist Patrick Cripps is collecting massive numbers, including 42 touches and 13 clearances on Saturday, the bullish midfielder needs to be more effective.
Cripps’ kicking efficiency is just 37 per cent this season compared to 53.5 last season. In 2022, he kicked a career-high 20 goals; in the first three games this year, he has none. Cripps has 94 disposals this season but just 11 inside-50s. For Carlton to regain their biggest strength, hurting the opposition from stoppages, Cripps needs to win more possessions in the front half of the ground. He must tidy up his disposal.
Carlton’s ball movement, offensively and defensively, needs attention.
To rank 16th of 18 teams for moving the ball from defensive 50 to offensive 50 is a red flag. The Blues are moving the ball slower, denying themselves their greatest weapon – those two powerful key forwards, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, tormenting defenders on the lead and in one-on-one duels. Last season, Carlton ranked eighth on transition.
Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps.Credit: AFL Photos
These numbers would be even worse if not for All-Australian defender Adam Saad, who is the key to the ball movement. Saad is the No.1-rated defender this season and the league’s third-best kick.
The form of 2021 Coleman medallist McKay is another annoying alarm for Voss. McKay has had just eight shots at goal this season for two goals. The numbers say his teammates have lost confidence in him as a target inside 50; they have gone to him just 26 per cent of the time compared with 35 per cent last season.
McKay is the 24th-ranked player at Carlton this season. Only fringe player Lachie O’Brien rates lower.
North Melbourne’s defence is riddled with injury and suspension and will be missing two key defenders – McKay’s twin brother, Ben, and Griffin Logue – for the Good Friday clash under the roof at the Docklands.
It will be more than concerning if McKay does not find a way to capitalise on the undersized North Melbourne back six and dominate in the air.
The Blues’ defensive work also has slipped this year by struggling to defend the opposition’s ball movement. Last season, Carlton were ninth in this phase of the game; today,14th.
If this trend continues, Carlton won’t be coming. They will fade out into another season of disappointment.
On a positive note, the Blues have been better at scoring from opposition turnovers while conceding fewer scores from their turnovers. They rank in the top eight on both counts.
Hawthorn champion Luke Hodge is not concerned by the worrying statistics at Carlton. He believes winning is all that matters in the early stages of the season.
“At this time of year, it’s about getting wins, not playing your best football. You want to start getting primed and playing your best football from round 17 to 18,” Hodge told SEN.
It is unlikely we will learn if Carlton have turned the corner in the Good Friday game against an underdone North Melbourne. So don’t let winning fool you; the major cracks underneath the wallpaper need attention.
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