Your eyes are deceiving you.
When you watch the Australian Open, either court-side or on the couch, your eyes are naturally drawn to the longer, more spectacular rallies. When 19-year-old American Learner Tien won his service game to surge to a 4-3 lead in the opening set against Daniil Medvedev on Thursday night, the six points included rallies of six shots, then 20, 13, 15, 11, and 15 shots. Isn’t that worth staying up past midnight for?
Your eyes seek the dopamine rush of the longer rallies, but the short rallies of 0-4 shots – which include a maximum of just two shots for each player – ultimately decide grand slam glory at Melbourne Park.
Let’s be clear: short rallies are not attractive or memorable. In many ways, we think they are the failed attempts at reaching the promised land of the long rally.
Isn’t consistency king? Surely, putting one more ball in play is the right thing to do?
It sounds good in theory, but it doesn’t match the reality of a professional tennis match. Short rallies dominate the landscape at Melbourne Park. The following tournament totals come from 47 men’s matches played by players who won their opening two rounds this week.
Australian Open men’s rally length (47 matches)
0-4 Shots – 69%
5-8 Shots – 21%
9+ Shots – 10%
There are two main takeaways from this data. The most consistent players on the planet hit the ball in the court a maximum of just two times in seven out of 10 points they play. The majority of points on Rod Laver Arena are over before they ever really get started.
When you watch the world’s best players on the practice courts at Melbourne Park, they almost never miss. When you watch them in a match, they constantly miss. Points in tennis average around 70 per cent errors and 30 per cent winners. In the 0-4 shot rally length, it’s 80 per cent errors. Tennis is “error-ball” much more than it is anything else.
The second takeaway is that we don’t play a consistent sport. Only one out of 10 points reaches nine shots or longer. All those long rallies that make you feel so good on the practice court don’t really parlay to the match court.
Men’s top seed and defending champion Jannik Sinner is once again carving his way through the draw on the back of destroying opponents in short rallies. Sinner has played a staggering 78 per cent of his points in the 0-4 shot length. He is only playing 16 per cent in the mid-length range of 5-8 shots and only seven per cent of points in long rallies. He has won 16 points in 9+ shot rallies and lost 14. Who cares when he plays 339 short points in the 0-4 rally length?
Carlos Alcaraz is another player who likes to attack at the start of the point. The Spaniard is playing 72 per cent of his points in short rallies, 22 per cent in 5-8 shots, and just six per cent in 9+ shot rallies. Alcaraz has won nine points in long rallies and lost nine. He has a zero-sum net in long rallies. No problem. That’s not going to stop him from winning the title.
The three players who have built the most significant winning margins in the 0-4 shot rally length are Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Novak Djokovic. These heavyweights are cleverly outclassing opponents before they can sink their teeth into the point.
Leading three players in the 0-4 shot rally length
A. Zverev: 146 won/90 lost = +56
T. Fritz: 111 won/55 lost = +56
N. Djokovic: 179 won/125 lost = +54
Where most points are played, Zverev, Fritz, and Djokovic turn the screws better than anyone else left in the draw. What’s interesting is that three players have managed to reach the third round losing more points in the 0-4 shot rally length than they have won.
Worst performers in the 0-4 rally length
L. Tien: 85 won/101 lost = -16
H. Rune: 183 won/195 lost = -12
A. Vukic: 96 won/102 lost = -6
These players rely on wearing down opponents in longer rallies. Tien, in particular, performed well in longer rallies in his five-set upset of Daniil Medvedev in the second round. The two players combined for a staggering 110 points in the 9+ shot rally length, with Tien outlasting the No.5 seed 62-48 in their lengthiest exchanges.
In the two sets Medvedev won, the pair played only 23 points in long rallies of 9+ shots. Medvedev was clearly trying to keep points short and not let Tien gain a foothold from the baseline. In the fifth set alone, the pair played 36 rallies of 9+ shots, which favored Tien.
Carlos Alcaraz stretches for a backhand.Credit: Getty Images
They played a 33-shot rally in the first game of the fifth set, which Tien won. In the second-set tiebreaker, they produced a jaw-dropping 45-shot rally, which Tien also won.
Typically, Medvedev grinds opponents into the court in Australia, but this time he met a younger, faster version of himself.
The mid-length rallies of 5-8 shots are the in-between land where patterns of play emerge. This is where players can plan where they serve, where the ball will most likely come back, and the ensuing couple of shots that act as blows against the opponent’s weakness. It’s premeditated murder. Below are the leading three players winning points in the 5-8 shot rally length.
Leading three players in the 5-8 shot rally length
H, Rune: 71 won/46 lost = +25
A. Michelsen: 55 won/30 lost = +25
C. Alcaraz: 43 won/21 lost = +22
These mid-length rallies account for 21 per cent of total points. It’s a sizable amount of points that are up for grabs that typically supplement the winning strategies of short points. What’s interesting about this rally length is that players can be solid here or even quite average. Only seven players built a double-digit lead, while 10 players created no advantage at all.
Worst performers in the 5-8 shot rally length
L. Musetti: 51 won/62 lost = -11
B. Shelton: 40 won/49 lost = -9
N. Djokovic: 40 won/45 lost = -5
It’s startling to see Djokovic, a 10-time champion at Melbourne Park, trailing in any stat against his opponents, but that’s exactly where he stands in mid-length rallies through the first two rounds.
Novak Djokovic rally length won/lost
0-4 shots: 179 won/125 lost = +54
5-8 Shots: 40 won/45 lost = -5
9+ Shots: 38 won/28 lost = +10
This identifies an apparent problem for Djokovic. He is playing too many long rallies compared to the rest of the draw, which is not ideal from a stamina perspective for the 37-year-old.
Djokovic has played the second-highest total of 9+ rallies, at 14.5 per cent of his total points. Only Tien has a higher average. The problem is that Djokovic has played 151 points in rallies of five shots or longer and has only crafted a five-point advantage. That’s a lot of running for a mediocre payout.
Keep your eye on who is dominating the shorter rallies moving forward. It’s less wear and tear on the body and stops opponents getting a foothold into the rally. Consistency is king at Melbourne Park, but as it turns out, it is actually just being consistent with the first two shots you hit.
