Australia’s history-making loss to Italy was a lightning rod for criticism of Dave Rennie’s Wallabies, who have won just three of 12 Tests this season, have slipped to a world ranking of No.9 and look well out of contention for next year’s World Cup.
What has gone wrong? Some of it is situational and some is structural, and some of it is out of Rennie’s control. We break down four of the main contributors to a poor Wallabies season so far.
Discipline
It is a well-reported fact that Australia were the most penalised tier one nation in the world heading into Europe’s Autumn internationals, but their average has ratcheted up alarmingly on tour and now sits at 13.8 per Test, according to stats provided by Oval. Unsurprisingly, their most disciplined performance, conceding 10 against France, was also their best.
Some penalties will be a matter of a referee’s interpretation of the breakdown, or a bizarre officiating overreach such as Mathieu Raynal’s time-wasting penalty against Bernard Foley when Australia led New Zealand 37-34 with less than a minute to play.
But the Wallabies have a habit of coughing up the dumb ones and Saturday’s Italy Test was full of them. Jake Gordon was sin-binned for a late tackle, Cadeyrn Neville penalised for a seatbelt tackle (down over the shoulder from neck-height), Will Skelton for an offside infringement in front of Australia’s goal posts, Hunter Paisami’s fumble to turn over the ball on attack, Tom Robertson for tackling a player off the ball. That’s not an exhaustive list.
Rennie and his players have talked about it ad nauseam but to date have not consistently been able to rein it in. This is one of the elements Rennie’s set up – coaches and players – that cannot escape scrutiny.
Before the tour, he said dominance in the collision was key to staying on the right side of the referee’s whistle, and commentator Morgan Turinui said he observed the coaches being tough on the offside line during training. Beyond that, is Rennie pushing the aggression too far? Are the group’s internal standards on tackle technique, catch-and-pass and the offside line high enough? Do they need to get a referee into training? Hopefully, someone is asking these questions.
Wallabies players after their one-point defeat to Italy.Credit:Getty Images
Selection
Brain snap tackles and desperate offsides increase when a team is under pressure. In the case of the Wallabies, a team with 11 changes from the week before was always going to be under pressure. It is laughable to suggest that Rennie and his assistant coaches – and analyst – underestimated the threat posed by Italy; they are smart men and good coaches who understood what was coming.
But Rennie made a raft of changes in the name of load-sharing across a gruelling five-Test tour and had a couple more forced upon him through illness. RA’s rugby committee knew he was going to do this. Sources familiar with discussions said there was robust debate about the strategy but the coach, as is appropriate, held sway. Rennie knew the risks but believed he had the team to beat Italy.
The fact is the selected players played poorly by their own standards and a lack of time in the saddle together piled on extra pressure. Rennie is responsible for some of that, but the players must front up too.
Quade Cooper is Dave Rennie’s first choice No.10 but has only played one Test this year.Credit:Getty
The selection questions did not start on this tour. Perhaps supporters will see a cohesive selection named over the course of the tour, with Rennie’s preferred 23 selected for France, Ireland and Wales. They would dearly love to, with seven games left before the World Cup kicks off.
Injuries have made cohesion impossible, from the moment Quade Cooper was ruled out in the warm-up of the first Test of the season, to Tom Banks’s continued bad luck, Izack Rodda’s pre-season injury and Michael Hooper’s sudden withdrawal from the Rugby Championship, to name a few. The best Wallabies XV has not taken the field this season.
Critics also scratched their heads over Rennie’s substitution of Bernard Foley in the final 10 minutes of the Test against France, when the game was in the balance, and to Ben Donaldson’s four minutes against Italy, which ended in a missed shot at goal. It cost Australia the match.
Playing catch up
Long gone are the days of Australia as rugby’s great innovators. Glorious as it was, Australia’s first try against France – Jock Campbell’s quick hands out to Jed Holloway, who found Tom Wright and his afterburners on the left wing – was a rare example of the Wallabies playing and executing heads-up rugby in unstructured play.
The broader trend is that Australia are struggling to adapt to some sophisticated second-wave attack in the Northern Hemisphere, best typified by Ange Capuozzo’s second try at the weekend and Ollie Smith’s try for Scotland.
Italy fullback Ange Capuozzo scores against Australia in Florence.
In Florence, the Australian midfield didn’t know which of the Italians to tackle. Hunter Paisami, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright bit in hard as the ball was shifted right out the back but by the time it was put in Capuozzo’s hands, Jock Campbell had overrun it and was behind the baby-faced Italian fullback.
Ireland were the first movers in this space, so expect more of this in Dublin this weekend.
Ollie Smith scores against the Wallabies at Murrayfield.
‘The system’
In the 2003 World Cup final, Eddie Jones had four choices at fullback: Mat Rogers, Matt Burke, Chris Latham and Joe Roff. Rogers started in the jersey, Roff was named on the bench, and Burke and Latham sat in their suits in the stands of Stadium Australia.
Rennie could only dream about having players of that experience and quality to choose from next year. As it stands, Tom Banks and Andrew Kellaway look set to battle it out for the No.15 jersey, with Campbell, Reece Hodge, Jordan Petaia and Tom Wright the next best options. Kurtley Beale will put up a fight from the Waratahs next year. Approaching 100 Tests, he will be the most experienced candidate.
Rennie’s fullback headache, as with his continued searching at five-eighth and hooker, illustrate Australia’s decline over the years. Campbell is a fine footballer but by rights shouldn’t be starting a Test, yet. Lolesio was thrown in too young at No.10 and Ben Donaldson shouldn’t be in the mix yet, either. Rennie has the dual responsibilities of developing Test players and finessing them, at the same time as he asks the universe to safeguard Quade Cooper, who is still his first choice No.10.
That is a symptom of a system that has had its development pathways eroded to the point of non-existence over the past decade, while its rival codes have streaked ahead. Joseph Sua’ali’i and Kalyn Ponga are only the most glaring examples of rugby’s losing battle for the best talent.
Rugby Australia have reinstated the Australia A program and continue to invest in the Junior Wallabies. But it is hard to see the talent pool growing over the long term as the AFL’s relentless march into Queensland and NSW picks off primary-aged children before they know there are alternatives.
There is also the question of the best Super Rugby structure to support the Wallabies, with data suggesting Australia were most successful with three teams. This is politically and commercially unviable for RA, and remains off the table.
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