The Brumbies meet the Hurricanes in a Super Rugby Pacific quarter-final in Canberra on Saturday night, and depending on the preceding 24 hours, it could prove to be one of two things.
It could be one of the most crucial games in the club’s recent history, or a mostly inconsequential dead rubber.
The unusual scenario has arisen after Super Rugby Pacific opted to put the Brumbies-Hurricanes as last of three finals on the opening weekend of the playoffs, which has been cut back to six teams this year after opposition to the previous system of eight teams in a 12-team competition qualifying.
With only three finals being played, the top-three ranked winning teams progress to the semi-finals, and so does the highest-ranked loser.
With the Crusaders (2nd) hosting the Reds (5th) on Friday night, and the Chiefs (1st) and Blues (6th) playing on Saturday afternoon, the Brumbies (3rd) vs Canes (4th) at 7.30pm on Saturday will have no knockout component if the Crusaders and Chiefs both win.
Both the Brumbies and the Canes would still progress to the semi-finals.
Corey Toole of the Brumbies celebrates scoring a try.Credit: Getty Images
If either the top two-ranked sides get beaten before the Brumbies-Canes clash, however, the final will have huge ramifications. The winner would earn a home semi-final the following week, and a door would remain open to even hosting the final a week later. No Australian side has ever won Super Rugby without hosting the final.
The loser would be knocked out.
The Brumbies had applied for their final to be played on Saturday afternoon in Canberra, with local club and schools rugby being played on Thursday and Friday due to the long weekend.
But Super Rugby Pacific boss Jack Mesley said the decision was made last week to play the Brumbies-Canes game in prime time in Australia, to ensure the maximum television audience on Nine’s digital channel Gem, as well as the Nine-owned Stan Sport.
“It was a competition decision,” Mesley said. “We weighed that [broadcast] up, along with other factors, to work through the scheduling.
“It’s not a perfect science, but we think this is the best option of putting the biggest game of Super Rugby in Australia this year, in front of as many people as we can, at an opportune time, with a channel mix that worked.”
The decision to put the Brumbies on Saturday night was made before their finishing position was known, and they could have finished second – and hosted the Reds in a blockbuster – had they beaten the Crusaders last week.
Mesley said Super Rugby Pacific faced a complex matrix when deciding on broadcast schedules, with the broadcasters in different countries and with different prime-time zones. Bedding down a rigid finals schedule based on fixtures and not factoring in participants may not always work best.
On the eve of the finals, Mesley lauded the quality of the Super Rugby Pacific competition, with stats showing an uplift in a range of areas, including broadcast viewership, crowd numbers, entertainment value and overall jeopardy.
Fans re-engaged with Super Rugby Pacific in a significant way, with crowd numbers up by six per cent, and Stan Sport reporting a 27 per cent increase in viewership this season.
Almost half of the 77 games were decided by seven points or less, and it was the second-highest-scoring Super Rugby season of all time, with an average of 57.8 points per game. Within games, there was an average of 4.1 lead changes per game, with over half of the games having a lead change in the second half, and more than a quarter having a lead change in the last 10 minutes.
Key stats from the Super Rugby Pacific season
- Almost half of games (43.1 per cent) have produced winning margins of seven points or less.
- Currently the second-highest scoring Super Rugby season of all time, with an average of 57.8 points per game.
- A historically low average of 2.1 penalty goal attempts per game reflecting teams favouring attacking, running rugby.
- Increased jeopardy within games with an average of 4.1 lead changes per match, more than half of games (54.2 per cent) having a lead change in the second half, and more than a quarter of games (26.4 per cent) a lead change in the final ten minutes.*
- That jeopardy extends to match results with almost half of games (48.6 per cent) reversing a result from 2024.*
- The gap of 31 competition points between the last-placed Highlanders and first-placed Chiefs is the smallest margin between first and last since 2004.
- ‘Hoodoos’ being broken – Queensland Reds beating the Highlanders in New Zealand for the first time since 2012, ACT Brumbies winning at Eden Park for the first time since 2013, the Hurricanes ending a six-game winless run against the Brumbies in Canberra, Moana Pasifika recording their first-ever victories over the Highlanders, Blues and Crusaders.
Almost half of the games played saw a reversal of the result in 2024.
“We have seen a more competitive attractive standard of footy on field, and that’s been supported by a better telling of that story, through things like better comms, the fantasy league – just better ways to engage with a better product,” Mesley said.
“For me, you know, those are kind of the key ingredients to what’s been a great year, but we have a lot more to work on in the future. There’s a lot of growth left.”
