Daly Cherry-Evans has been a wonderful servant and a fantastic leader for Queensland.
But come Wednesday night, the Maroons halfback, Jeremiah Nanai and Rob Toia, the two teammates defending either side of him on Queensland’s right edge, can expect an all-out assault coming their way.
If NSW are able to target Cherry-Evans and exploit the champion halfback’s inconsistent defensive movement, then the Blues are well on their way to victory and defending the Origin shield.
If you remember as far back as Laurie Daley’s first coaching tenure and lone series win during Queensland’s dynasty, it was Cherry-Evans who checked out late in the game as Trent Hodkinson dummied his way over for the only try in Origin II, 2014.
A decade on, DCE’s edge has been successfully exploited in the past two series as well. And when you line up Mitchell Moses, Angus Crichton and Latrell Mitchell opposite Cherry-Evans, Nanai and Origin rookie Toia, it could be a long night for the Maroons.
With NSW winning three of the past four Origins played, going back to Bradman Best’s game three, 2023 debut, DCE’s defence has been put under the microscope.
In that 2023 dead rubber, Best had a field day on debut outside Cody Walker. His first try that night followed a couple of breaks and a Liam Martin no-try down that same left edge.
A long shift by NSW from the far-right scrum line opened up bigger gaps in the Queensland defensive line (watch for Moses and Nathan Cleary to try this again on Wednesday night), and when Walker drew DCE in, his outside man Valentine Holmes was left isolated and stuck in the mud.
That try for Best was a classic case of three players being on different defensive pages, but it was Best’s second try that night that was the most instructive for me.
Maroons skipper Daly Cherry-Evans has been found out before in Origin.Credit: Getty Images
Origin can become such an arm wrestle between elite players that you need to consider attacking when coming out of your own end, because it can become too tough and counterproductive to take one-out yardage hit-ups.
Anywhere near your own 40-metre line, go wide if there’s any hint of space – because more often than not the rushing, aggressive middle defence turns passive on the edges. If you don’t make a break, you can still find easy metres or a quick play-the-ball.
When NSW went wide for Best’s second try in 2023, it was Cherry-Evans again who just couldn’t drag himself off Liam Martin’s lead run as a decoy.
By the time he realised Martin wasn’t getting the ball, James Tedesco was already gone, and so was NSW.
Last year at the MCG in one of the most dominant halves of Origin ever played, the Blues found Cherry-Evans repeatedly and found him wanting.
Against the same Nanai/Cherry-Evans combo Queensland will play at Suncorp Stadium, we saw DCE fall back behind his four-man defender by only a step or two.
But that indecision can make all the difference and pile the pressure onto a back-rower like Nanai or the debutant Toia.
Latrell’s game two try last year again came from that big shift from the right-edge scrum line, with Crichton taking the space DCE offered. He managed to tackle him but couldn’t lock up the ball, and it was game over right there and then.
Now, if NSW can isolate Nanai again, Moses will make a beeline for Cherry-Evans – trying to put either Crichton one-on-one with the halfback, or line up Latrell with time and space opposite Toia.
Latrell has two big, devastating plays in this scenario. Good luck, Rob.
Because first off, Mitchell has his big left-foot step where can come inside Toia and use his big right hand palm, which would aim right for DCE’s chest.
The other play NSW have is hitting Latrell with an out ball to get him on Toia’s outside to drag winger Xavier Coates in.
Again, NSW worked this play perfectly last year in Melbourne, with Latrell dusting off the Matt Gidley flick pass for Brian To’o to score.
The edges and centres of attention
Over on the right edge, it doesn’t get any easier with Liam Martin and his old Penrith teammate Stephen Crichton, though there’s still a question mark over his quad injury.
If Crichton is right to play, you only have to think about his brilliant try against Canberra a few weeks ago – where he held the ball Sonny Bill Williams style, like it was a tennis ball, and swatted the Raiders away for fun. For mine, Crichton is also among the best defensive centres in the game.
But if he’s ruled out, then NSW would be bringing in the No.1 defensive centre in Campbell Graham.
The Rabbitohs flyer can be up and down in attack. But he knows how to position himself well in try-scoring situations and is very strong in the air.
Without the ball is where he does his best work. Reading play and seeing what’s coming your way in defence is just as important as doing it in attack. It’s just not as fun.
Graham has a real knack for reading body language to work out who’s getting the ball, and then combines it with great physicality and communication.
Campbell Graham is on stand-by for Stephen Crichton.Credit: Getty Images
If he’s coming in on debut, NSW won’t be worried about their right-edge defence, but they probably focus even more on their attacking weapons on the left.
The attacking plays I’ve focused on and efforts to isolate Cherry-Evans really only make up five per cent of an Origin performance. The other 95 per cent is the tough stuff. Getting forward in support, completing sets, kick-chase and working to where you want to be on the field.
But the extra fun five per cent is so important because that’s where you get your points from. And there were plenty of times in Laurie’s first stint as NSW coach where the Blues dominated momentum and field position, but ended up with nothing to show for it.
In terms of using a strike weapon like Latrell Mitchell on the left edge, less is more. Latrell is one of the most explosive power athletes we’ve seen in the game. NSW can’t waste his energy going to him if a play’s not on.
And that’s Latrell’s decision. If he wants the ball, he’s got to demand it and get it. It might only be two or three times a half. But it could be all NSW need.
Joey’s tip: NSW by 8
First try-scorer: Brian To’o
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
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