The first few matchdays of the 2024-25 Champions League campaign were a bit strange from a general vibes perspective. We saw plenty of interesting matches and great performances, but with the freshly expanded format — four more teams, two more matchdays, four-team groups ditched for a giant, 36-team table with two-thirds of teams advancing to the knockout rounds — it was hard to really glean the stakes of what we were seeing.
It’s not hard anymore.
In Matchday 6, we saw teams officially eliminated, we saw Liverpool lock up a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16, we saw a couple of Europe’s richest teams (Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain) get off the mat a bit, and we saw another one (Manchester City) continue its recent tailspin. We also saw lots of goals. Twelve of 18 matches had at least three of them, and seven had at least five.
With this level of entertainment, it’s almost a shame that the competition will now basically take six weeks off — Matchdays 7-8 are in the last two weeks of January — but we’ll make do. The more time to prepare for the richest Relegation Six-Pointer of all time (Manchester City at PSG on Jan. 22), the better, eh?
Let’s once again go country-by-country to look at who’s faring well, who’s flailing and which players performed the best in Matchday 6, the best of the competition thus far.
The categories below:
‐ Title hopefuls: Teams with at least a 3% chance of winning the whole thing, per ESPN BET
‐ Fighting for the top eight: Teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top eight of the league phase, per Opta
‐ Just hoping to advance: Teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top 24, but a less than 20% chance of finishing in the top eight, per Opta
‐ Playing out the string: Teams with an under 20% chance of finishing in the top 24
ENGLAND: Liverpool and Arsenal are new title favorites, Manchester City’s tailspin continues
TITLE HOPEFULS: Liverpool 16.2% (up 1.2% from last matchday), Arsenal 11.5% (up 0.6%), Manchester City 10.1% (down 3.6%)
You know your season’s going pretty well when we can nitpick semi-comfortable wins, but Liverpool both clinched a top-eight finish and left plenty to be desired in their 1-0 win over Girona on Tuesday. They scored only via a soft penalty and goalkeeper Alisson, in his return from injury after a couple of months, had to come up with a couple of huge saves as Girona was able to open up the match at times, attempting 13 shots worth a decent 1.2 xG.
This was the first time in five away matches that Liverpool didn’t allow at least two goals — they were stretched particularly open last week in a 3-3 draw at Newcastle — and they weren’t incredibly sharp against Girona either. But they handled their business, and they remain atop the table in both of the world’s most lucrative leagues.
And now they have company.
Saka received 15 passes from either Odegaard, Thomas Partey or Declan Rice and sent 12 passes their way as well, and Monaco was unable to prevent the ball from flowing in their direction. Throw in a brilliant first 35 minutes from forward Gabriel Jesus — in which he had three shots worth 0.8 xG, then assisted Saka’s 34th-minute game-winner — and you had Arsenal at its best. Monaco’s Breel Embolo missed a golden opportunity in the 65th minute, then Arsenal put the match away with two goals in the last 15 minutes.
You can make a pretty easy case that Liverpool and Arsenal are the two best teams in the world right now. In fact, it’s probably harder to make any other case. We’ll see what does or doesn’t change in the six weeks until Matchday 7.
FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Liverpool (100% chance of a top-eight finish), Arsenal (90.8%), Aston Villa (50.4%)
On Tuesday night in Leipzig, Aston Villa won one of the most entertaining and impactful matches of the week, a 3-2 decision that bumped up their odds of a top-eight finish by more than 30 percentage points and officially eliminated RBL from advancing. This match had four spectacular goals and a spectacularly-deflected winner from Ross Barkley, and Villa took all three points despite a spectacular match from RBL left midfielder Antonio Nusa. The shot and xG totals were similar, and RBL actually generated more opportunities in the box, but Villa got Barkley’s long deflection and yet another long-range strike from Jhon Durán.
SUPER-SUB JHON DURÁN STRIKES ONCE AGAIN!! 🤯💥 pic.twitter.com/qLpWlVLxbY
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 10, 2024
He really might be the best pure finisher in the game at the moment.
JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Manchester City (0.0% chance of a top-eight finish, 90.8% chance of advancing)
Zero point zero percent. Club soccer’s season is so long and arduous that it’s sometimes hard to know what to make of a team going on a hot or cold streak in the fall months. When it comes to the odds of accomplishing their goals, such a streak might not change things all that much. But Manchester City’s month-and-a-half from hell — 10 matches, one win, seven losses since Oct. 30 — has officially begun to derail their season.
SPAIN: Nine points for LaLiga’s three heavyweights
TITLE HOPEFULS: Barcelona 11.5% (down 0.6%), Real Madrid 11.5% (up 1.3%)
In American football, you’ll sometimes hear an announcer say something like, “This game will come down to whoever has the ball last.” This match was sort of the soccer version of that: both teams took turns dominating the ball and the attack in the second half, and Barca just happened to be the last one to take advantage. Regardless, they secured three vital points and all but assured themselves a round-of-24 bye. Considering the fatigue levels that come with executing the Flick system, that’s a pretty good prize.
FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Barcelona (90.5% chance of a top-eight finish), Atletico Madrid (37.8%)
Outside of Liverpool and Arsenal, is there a better team in the world right now than Atletico Madrid? Granted, they got to pick apart Slovan Bratislava on Wednesday, one of the three teams in the competition with zero points. But their comprehensive 3-1 win backed up something that has been evident for a few weeks now.
Manager Diego Simeone has exactly what he needs with this squad: Intensity, structure, industry and thanks to the combination of Antoine Griezmann and Julián Álvarez, just the right amount of creativity up front. The duo scored all three goals, and Atleti completely dominated in terms of both ball recoveries (they made 61% of them) and high turnovers (81%). They’ve won 10 in a row in all competitions (scoring margin: 30-7), and while peaking in December isn’t the single greatest way to win trophies, they’re overflowing with confidence at the moment.
Mbappe enjoyed a torrid start but came off with a thigh injury (it’s evidently not considered serious); still, though it felt like almost an upset, Real Madrid got three vital points.
PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Girona (0.4% chance of advancing)
GERMANY: Injuries don’t slow Bayern down
TITLE HOPEFULS: Bayern Munich 10.1% (down 0.2%), Bayer Leverkusen 3.5% (down 0.4%)
Olise was particularly dominant on the right side, constantly giving poor Shakhtar leftback Mykola Matviyenko and left-center back Alaa Ghram fits. Oh, and his mazy one-man goal in stoppage time was one of the highlights of the week.
FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Bayer Leverkusen (70.6% chance of a top-eight finish), Bayern Munich (64.7%), Borussia Dortmund (51.2%)
While BVB’s top-eight odds slipped with the defeat to Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen charged back into the conversation with a 1-0 win over Inter. Since getting pounded 4-0 by Liverpool in Matchday 4, they’ve won two in a row and raised their top-eight odds by more than 30 percentage points on Tuesday. And for as vulnerable as their defense has been at times in Bundesliga play (and at Anfield), they’ve outscored five Champions League opponents not named Liverpool by a combined 12-1.
JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Stuttgart (0.0% chance of top eight, 60.2% chance of advancing)
Following a humiliating 5-1 defeat at Red Star Belgrade in Matchday 5, Stuttgart gave up an early goal at home against Young Boys, which felt pretty foreboding. But they responded vigorously, charging to a 5-1 win of their own and getting their odds of advancing back on the right side of 50%.
The last two spots in the round of 24 could come down to PSV Eindhoven (77% chance), PSG (67%), Stuttgart (60%) or Dinamo Zagreb (29%). Stuttgart gets winless Slovan Bratislava in Matchday 7 … and then PSG at home in Matchday 8.
PLAYING OUT THE STRING: RB Leipzig (0.0% chance of advancing)
RB Leipzig has lost six matches by a total of seven goals. Sometimes it’s just not your year.
ITALY: Hello, Juventus
TITLE HOPEFULS: Inter Milan 4.8% (down 0.7%), Juventus 3.5% (up 1.5%)
This was only Inter’s second loss in any competition this season, so it’s forgiven. But it still dropped their odds of a top-eight finish from 91% to 79% and dropped their title chance, per ESPN BET, under 5%. It wasn’t the most damaging loss in the world, but it wasn’t a very good performance.
JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: none
PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Bologna (0.0% chance of advancing)
FRANCE: PSG rebounds (for now)
TITLE HOPEFULS: none
FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Brest (31.4% chance of a top-eight finish), Lille (26.2%)
They aren’t going to win this competition, but man, has it been fun watching Brest and Lille find themselves in Champions League play. Both have their distinct identities: Brest do the bunker-in-and-counter thing well and beat PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday with pure intensity and a couple of moments of brilliance from Julien Le Cardinal, while Lille comes at you with 1v1s and a high defensive line. They briefly lost control of their match with Sturm Graz on Wednesday, allowing goals on both sides of halftime, but Lille’s eventual 3-2 win kept them in the top eight for now.
JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Monaco (3.5% chance of top eight, 98.1% chance of advancing), PSG (0.0% top eight, 67.0% advancing)
It was only Salzburg. It’s important to point that out. The recent Austrian giants haven’t been in any way giant this season and have fallen out of the top 150 (and only a few spots ahead of the Houston Dynamo) in Opta’s power rankings. But after going four matches without a win in Champions League play, and three straight overall, PSG was able to build some confidence with an easy 3-0 away win on Tuesday. They weren’t able to fully put the match away until scoring twice in the last 20 minutes — and they once again underachieved slightly against their xG values (they now have just six goals from shots worth 11.2 xG) — but Salzburg never offered much of a threat, and the result was never really in doubt.
Gonçalo Ramos‘ presence makes such a difference. With both his scoring and pressing abilities, Ramos seemed custom-built to lead a Luis Enrique front line, but he missed three months with an ankle injury and has only recorded 256 minutes in all competitions this season. His 30th-minute goal put PSG ahead for good, and he might have helped Bradley Barcola enjoy his first standout Champions League performance of the season. (The level of competition probably didn’t hurt.)
Barcola didn’t score, but he was ridiculously dangerous, winning 10 of 15 1v1 attempts (both of those numbers are huge) with 20 combined progressive carries and passes. He’s got 10 goals and two assists in Ligue 1 play and zero of either in the Champions League, but he did everything but score on Tuesday. And the win kept their advancement hopes alive ahead of Manchester City’s late-January visit.
PLAYING OUT THE STRING: none
EVERYONE ELSE: Feyenoord takes flight
TITLE HOPEFULS: none
FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: none
JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Sporting CP (8.8% chance of top eight, 99.6% chance of advancing), Benfica (3.7% top eight, 98.1% advancing), Celtic (0.2% top eight, 95.1% advancing), Feyenoord (2.0% top eight, 94.1% advancing), Club Brugge (0.5% top eight, 87.0% advancing), PSV Eindhoven (0.0% top eight, 76.9% advancing), Dinamo Zagreb (0.0% top eight, 29.2% advancing)
Two weeks ago, Feyenoord’s odds of advancing were down to nearly 50-50 following a surprising 3-1 home loss to RB Salzburg. Then they found themselves down 3-0 against Manchester City in Matchday 5. But the late comeback and 3-3 draw lit a fire, it seems. Against a Sparta Prague team happy to exchange haymakers on Wednesday, Feyenoord put on an extraordinary finishing display, bolted to a 3-0 lead and cruised 4-1.
They’re all but guaranteed to advance now, and … man oh man, the Feyenoord home crowd just sounds different than most crowds:
Igor Paixão lets it rip from distance as Feyenoord are rolling! 🤯💥 pic.twitter.com/wGaMdJpvRm
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 11, 2024
We had two interesting matches between teams in the “Hoping to Advance” category on Tuesday. Celtic and Dinamo Zagreb played an intense but wary 0-0 draw, then Club Brugge continued its hot streak with a 2-1 home win over Sporting. It was Sporting’s fourth straight loss in all competitions, and their odds of a top-eight finish and a knockout-round bye have plummeted from 75% just two matchdays ago.
But while confidence may be dissipating in the weeks following manager Ruben Amorim’s departure for Manchester United, they were basically fine on Tuesday night. Brugge were just a hair more clinical and got a lovely Gustaf Nilsson-to-Hans Vanaken-to-Casper Nielsen game-winner in the 84th minute.
Off the bench and onto the scoresheet for Casper Nielsen to give Club Brugge the lead 💫 pic.twitter.com/3KBkR7CmPk
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 10, 2024
Brugge have now gone unbeaten in 11 straight matches in all competitions and have taken seven points from their last three Champions League matches.
PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Red Star Belgrade (2.5% chance of advancing), Shakhtar Donetsk (1.2%), Sparta Prague (0.4%), Sturm Graz (0.2%), RB Salzburg (0.0%), Slovan Bratislava (0.0%), Young Boys (0.0%)
Red Star have looked increasingly dangerous in this competition but evidently waited too late to get going. But with a home match against PSV Eindhoven in Matchday 7, they could still play a role in who advances to the next round.
THE BEST XI OF MATCHDAY 6
This was easily the hardest Best XI I’ve had to come up with in this competition. We had some serious star performances.
Goalkeeper: Ivan Guteaa, Red Star Belgrade
The late strike from Tammy Abraham was a heartbreaker for Red Star as a whole, but especially Gutesa, who made a whopping eight saves and according to the postshot xG values, prevented 1.8 goals with those saves.
Backup: Lukasz Skorupski, Bologna
Fullback: Achraf Hakimi, PSG
Two assists from four chances created, plus 13 defensive interventions. Hakimi remains maybe the best all-around fullback in the sport.
Backup: Joshua Vagnoman, Stuttgart
Central defender: Marquinhos, PSG
There still might not be a better center-back in the world when it comes to ball progression. He not only completed 123 passes (17 more than anyone else), he also completed 42 progressive passes; no one else had more than 23.
Backup: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Celtic
Central defender: Ryan Flamingo, PSV Eindhoven
Find yourself a defender who can both ensure great ball progression (Flamingo’s 78 pass completions were worth 0.7 expected assists, most of any center-back in Matchday 6) and disrupt the hell out of your opponent’s attack (his 19 defensive interventions were seventh-most).
Backup: Nicolás Otamendi, Benfica
Fullback: Nordi Mukiele, Bayer Leverkusen
PSG has cornered the right back market. Not only do they have Hakimi, but they also loaned Mukiele to Bayer Leverkusen, where he enjoyed a breakthrough performance on Tuesday: 22 combined progressive carries and passes, 12 defensive interventions and a lovely game-winner:
Inter concede their first #UCL goal of the season to a 90th-minute strike from Bayer Leverkusen’s Nordi Mukiele! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Q83jZzJ103
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 10, 2024
Backup: Andy Robertson, Liverpool
Midfield: Angelo Stiller, Stuttgart
The Stuttgart attack was in fifth gear for most of Wednesday evening, and with 27 combined progressive carries and passes and four fouls drawn (plus nine ball recoveries), Stiller was the accelerant for that. He scored, too.
A quality one-two as Angelo Stiller starts it and finishes for Stuttgart 💥 pic.twitter.com/XX6kLKViqV
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 11, 2024
Backup: Enzo Millot, Stuttgart
Midfielder: Antonio Nusa, RB Leipzig
RBL has been snake-bitten in this competition, but Nusa still enjoyed a breakout performance on Tuesday, creating four chances, drawing three fouls and going 5-for-6 on 1v1s. He was testing Aston Villa all night.
Backup: Mahdi Camara, Brest
Midfielder: Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid
Bellingham can produce do-it-all numbers like no one else. In Tuesday’s vital win over Atalanta, he combined 13 defensive interventions with a goal, two chances created and a 5-for-8 performance in 1v1s. He was everywhere.
Backup: Youri Tielemans, Aston Villa
Winger: Michael Olise, Bayern Munich
Two goals, one assist, 12 progressive carries and 6-for-11 on 1v1s. For my money, Olise was the best player of Matchday 6.
Backup: Fabian Rieder, Stuttgart
Centerforward: Ademola Lookman, Atalanta
Lookman has played 17 matches in all competitions this season. He’s scored at least once in nine of them, and he’s created at least three chances in eight. He had a goal and two chances, plus a season-high 14 progressive carries, against Real Madrid on Tuesday. He’s unreal.
Backups: Antoine Griezmann, Atletico Madrid; Loïs Openda, RB Leipzig; Ferran Torres, Barcelona
Winger: Bukayo Saka, Arsenal
Two goals, one assist, seven ball recoveries. Saka was probably the second-best player of Matchday 6. Olise and Saka were so good that somehow Stuttgart winger Fabian Rieder, with three assists, didn’t even make the Best XI.
Backup: Bradley Barcola, PSG
