If football was played over one quarter, Carlton would be on top of the ladder, Tom De Koning would have a powerful reason to stay, and life would be rosy for coach Michael Voss.
An Instagram post this week by the account Memes About Carlton, presumably run by a Blues fan, gave a glimpse into this parallel universe.
Carlton have had trouble finishing off games after starting strongly.Credit: Getty Images
Featuring highlights from the 1995 grand final under the title “2025 Carlton if AFL games ended at quarter time”, the post finished with Stephen Kernahan and David Parkin holding aloft that year’s premiership cup, the last won by the Blues.
The Blues have won 10 of 13 first quarters, equal with Adelaide. They play daring football in this period, move the ball quickly by hand, are efficient inside 50 metres and kick straight. But things change dramatically after the first break, almost as if the quarter-time siren to them is what the stroke of midnight is for Cinderella.
The key metrics drop. The Blues are less willing to handball after a mark, score conversions after entering 50m drop, as does accuracy – from third to 14th for the final three quarters.
Unfortunately for success-starved Blues supporters, the events on the opening night of round one against Richmond were not an aberration, even if their subsequent fadeouts have not been as spectacular or as embarrassing.
They have won just three of 13 second halves and are equal 16th for winning final quarters. In the 10 games they have led at quarter-time, they have won six, well below the competition average of 76.5 per cent. Even with one more win, they could have been playing this week for a spot in the eight.
There are numerous theories to the Blues fadeouts. They are slow; they are not a good kicking team; or, don’t have the fitness to play a physically taxing game built on contest and clearance are among the schools of thought.
If the Blues are indeed not fit enough – and they are adamant that is not the case – there’s not much new strength and conditioning boss Rob Inness can do during the season to correct it.
Voss’s take is it’s a good problem to have, that it is far better to be working out why the team finishes slowly than being so far behind.
Despite the focus on offence and ball movement since the bye, the jury is still out on whether Voss and his coaches have found the remedy. Victories over the struggling Essendon and bottom-placed West Coast were built on leads of 32 and 39 points at quarter-time, advantages that were eaten into in the final three terms.
“We felt like we’ve certainly made some ground in that,” Voss said on SEN on Friday.
“Some was a lapse in concentration after half-time – two teams go in and one team likes the scoreboard and one team doesn’t, and obviously the intensity of one team goes up, and we need to be able to match that.
“Some of it’s been a little bit of injuries after half-time or just before half-time a couple of times. So there’s probably been a few different things.”
The Blues have made several changes to their forward line since the bye, not all voluntary, and are eager to let the new configuration settle.
Orazio Fantasia and Zac Williams have returned from injury. Mitch McGovern has been swung forward from defence. There were worries earlier in the week Charlie Curnow would also miss due to calf tightness, but the superstar forward has been cleared to face North Melbourne.
Ruckman De Koning is likely to spend more time forward this week after injuries to Coleman medallist Harry McKay and also to Hudson O’Keeffe.
The Blues hold hope De Koning will remain at the club that drafted him as an 18-year-old, though rival list managers and recruiters believe he will accept St Kilda’s mega free agency offer.
Voss would not be drawn into a discussion whether the Blues were closer to a flag than the Saints, but said De Koning remains heavily involved in the club.
“I look at what he’s providing us, the investment he has in our team, and I watch how much he loves his teammates – he’s grown up at this football club,” Voss said at his weekly press conference.
“This is his team, and he sees himself as that. When we have our conversations, that’s what we talk about – the team, how he’s going to get better and talk about what that looks like in the future. We’re more than happy to have those discussions.”
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