While there is little suspense at the very top of the Bundesliga table, with Bayern Munich traveling inexorably to a Meisterschale lift, we’re in very different and more competitive territory in the European qualification shakeup. When the music stops on May 17, it’s difficult to say with any certainty who will occupy positions three through six, namely the up-for-grabs European places awarded on league merit.
So, who will international spielen (qualify for Europe)? In the absence of guarantees, here is my assessment of the runners and riders.
Remaining schedule: vs. RB Leipzig, at Mainz, vs. St. Pauli, at SC Freiburg
I have a good friend in Frankfurt who veers reflexively to the pessimistic on matters Eintracht, but I’m here to say: optimism should prevail. Yes, Dino Toppmöller’s side put in perhaps their least compelling first half of the season in Augsburg on Sunday, but it came on the back of an exacting and emotionally difficult UEFA Europa League exit against Tottenham Hotspur.
Now granted, this Sunday’s Direktduell with Leipzig, their chief rivals for third place, is gargantuan and Eintrach scheiterte (a great word for failed!) in the two previous head-to-head meetings with them. Plus, without the influence of the injured Mario Götze, there’s not the same flow.
In Götze’s absence, Toppmöller on Sunday went for a Systemumstellung (change of shape) to two up front before reverting to the setup that had previously served the club well with Hugo Ekitike partnerless.
Eintracht should nail down not just European football, but a UEFA Champions League spot, and I expect them to do it before the potentially difficult trip to Freiburg on the final day.
4. RB Leipzig | 49 points | +10 GD
Remaining schedule: at Eintracht Frankfurt, vs. Bayern Munich, at Werder Bremen, vs. VfB Stuttgart
Leipzig have ascended to the Champions League on all but one occasion since becoming a Bundesliga side in 2016. Their prospects this term look wackelig (shaky) to say the least. Saturday’s 1-1 draw with bottom club Holstein Kiel, particularly in the first half, provided scant evidence that RBL in their current guise under interim manager Zsolt Löw are good enough.
Somehow, thanks to Mainz conceding in the 89th minute against VfL Wolfsburg, Leipzig managed to hold on to fourth place, but the fixture list is far from straightforward and captain Péter Gulácsi‘s absence in Frankfurt this weekend due to concussion protocol rules is not what Leipzig need.
I do think Leipzig will represent Germany in Europe but have limited confidence in them reaching the Champions League this time, which would mean an enormous financial blow for a club that has grown accustomed to qualifying.
5. Freiburg | 48 points | -4 GD
Remaining schedule: at Wolfsburg, vs. Bayer Leverkusen, at Holstein Kiel, vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
In Julian Schuster’s first season in charge, Freiburg have been on something of an Achterbahnfahrt (roller coaster ride), but it’s one that promises to end positively. Their results come in strange waves: four victories in a row, followed by five without a win and now a two-match winning sequence for the Breisgau club. Vincenzo Grifo and Ritsu Doan, inverted wingers both, are their key producers but their unyielding spirit of the club is embodied by Saturday’s player of the match in the win against TSG Hoffenheim: striker Lucas Höler. By no means a prolific scorer, Höler’s a hefty handful and his skills include ball winning and pressing, the ultimate Arbeitstier (workhorse).
There’s every reason to believe Freiburg will be in Europe, but as for which competition? It could genuinely be any one of three.
6. Mainz | 47 points | +12 GD
Remaining schedule: at Bayern Munich, vs. Eintracht Frankfurt, at VfL Bochum, vs. Bayer Leverkusen
While commentating for the Bundesliga’s world feed on the Mainz-Wolfsburg game this past weekend, I could sense the nervousness in the MEWA Arena near the end. Mainz, ahead 2-1, were on the cusp of ending a four-game run without a win but conceded an 89th-minute leveler to Denis Vavro. It all went eerily quiet as the Rheinhessen dropped from fourth place to sixth on the Blitztabelle (live table.)
With the current top three still to come, it will take something quite extraordinary for Bo Henriksen’s team to reach Europe at all, let alone the Champions League. The good news is captain and record top-flight scorer Jonathan Burkardt returned last week and Phillipp Mwene will be back on Saturday at Bayern.
Remaining schedule: at Hoffenheim, vs. Wolfsburg, at Bayer Leverkusen, vs. Holstein Kiel
