A year ago, the premiership highway looked open and unencumbered for the Western Bulldogs.
Today, however, the Dogs have all of a sudden been presented with a crossroads.
While 2022 was a year of underachievement for the side, it may well be 2023 that proves the Dogs’ season of reckoning.
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THE COACH
First thing’s first: Let’s talk about Luke Beveridge.
As things stand, Beveridge will enter the final year of his current deal in 2023 and his ninth year in total since taking charge of the Dogs in 2015.
His first two years will remain hard to top. In 2015, the side finished sixth and played finals for the first time since 2010 — despite off-field turmoil and many tipping them to finish last — while they secured a drought-breaking premiership in 2016 — despite finishing outside the top four.
The following two years were disappointing, missing finals in both campaigns before back-to-back finishes in seventh.
External pressure began to rise on Beveridge in 2021 as the side sat outside the top eight with two rounds remaining, despite the acquisition during the 2020 off-season of Adam Treloar, making for a mouth-watering midfield mix.
The Dogs’ heroic charge to the 2021 Grand Final quelled that chatter, however, before an awe-inspiring Melbourne performance sealed the latter’s own drought-breaking premiership.
This year, the Dogs were left to rely on other results to secure their finals fate, before a second straight stunning collapse at Optus Stadium in a final, this time resulting in Fremantle’s win.
Pressure again has been heaped externally onto Beveridge. Is it warranted?
“I rate Luke Beveridge, he’s a smart coach,” former St Kilda star Leigh Montagna told foxfooty.com.au this week.
“I think we underestimated the loss of a couple of key assistants … that does play a factor.”
Beveridge, perhaps inadvertently, offered an insight into how big an issue such departures might’ve been early in the year.
“We‘re losing good people from our industry, there’s a lot of pressure,” he said in March.
“The HR (human resources) and wellbeing component has become a real struggle.
“It‘s a huge issue for our industry, our little niche industry.
“It‘s a shame nothing’s been done yet.
“You’ve just got to rely on your stocks with the people you have and our people have done a tremendous job even with the reduced budgets.”
Foxfooty.com.au understands the Dogs were one of the hardest hit clubs in terms of football department departures and their impact on the side.
Two of those that left were highly-rated assistant coaches Ashley Hansen and Steven King, who joined Carlton and Gold Coast’s coaching panels respectively.
They were replaced by Matt Spangher and Marc Webb, who Beveridge lauded for their work this year, but replacing Hansen and King was never going to be easy given the coaching pedigree of the duo.
“I think he’ll adjust,” Montagna said.
“I think he’s a smart enough coach, he’s a good coach. They’ll adjust their personnel, I think they get more personnel in their defence, adjust with it and they can be a top-six team next year.”
TRADE SPACE
Liam Jones looms as a monumental addition for the Dogs in 2023, arguably even more so than other likely inclusion Rory Lobb.
Jones, a one-on-one defensive specialist, will join a side that appears to be executing a game plan specifically designed to avoid such contests for fear of what it might mean.
“I would think he’s got a game plan that he thinks best suits his list. He probably thinks he hasn’t got defenders that are capable of defending one-on-one against a big monster at fullback, so he’s relying on a team defence to support each other,” Montagna said.
“I think they’re the worst at defending one-on-one but they defend one-on-one the least of any team in the comp.
“Maybe if he has different personnel back there he can defend differently.”
The arrival of Lobb, too, could allow for one of Aaron Naughton or Sam Darcy to take up a key defensive post, effectively adding two ready-made defenders to the mix in 2023.
It’s not just the players on the way in that make for fascination with the Dogs.
Leading the pack? Josh Dunkley.
Dunkley at his best is a gamebreaking talent and contested beast who’s hitting his prime at 25 years of age.
To lose him – likely to Port Adelaide – would be a blow, but a trade from a draft point of view would be lucrative, with the Power reportedly prepared to part with a first-round pick in a deal.
Additionally, if there was one area where the Dogs could afford to lose talent, it’s in the stacked midfield department.
“He’s a big one, but they can cover his loss,” Monatgna said of Dunkley.
“They’ve got enough depth in the midfield. I don’t think it would be a huge loss.”
Another member of the 2016 premiership crop that looks likely to leave is Jason Johannisen, but the emergence of one of his teammates makes it a manageable one.
“Jason Johannisen became a bit of a fringe player in 2022,” Montagna said.
“They’ve got running halfbacks and Ed Richards has become a really good player along with Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale.
“They’ve got some other young half-forwards who could play that role. I don’t think they’re two big losses.”
THE STATS
So, where must the Dogs improve in 2023?
Unsurprisingly, it’s all about defence.
The Dogs were the fourth-worst team in 2022 for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage (23.2%) and the third-worst at conceding points from their opposition’s defensive half (35.7 per game).
In a system that appears to be designed to protect the backhalf, it’s little wonder numbers like those have seen the Dogs recede somewhat in 2022.
A key absentee for the Dogs in the Elimination Final loss was Tom Liberatore.
It’s Liberatore who spearheads the side’s clearance grunt, which remains their one-wood and the area where they have and can impose themselves on the opposition.
The Dogs finished the regular season ranking first for both points from stoppage (38.1) and clearance differential (+8.2), headlined by Liberatore and assisted by Jack Macare and Marcus Bontempelli.
When those numbers are up, the Dogs are a hard side to beat, but they simply must stop leaking scores when they’re required to defend the other way.
“The way they defend is a concern,” Montagna said of the Dogs, who rank 15th for defending ball movement.
“Whether it’s backing off the mark and allowing teams to kick the ball through them too easy, the zoning defence I reckon has been exposed a little bit now with the stand rule, teams are moving the ball quicker so they’re zoning grass and not referencing an opponent, I think is probably not working for them anymore.
“They’ve just got to adjust how they want to defend.”
In the end, the man in charge of implementing and refining that system is Luke Beveridge, which means much of his off-season time will surely go into fixing it.
