With just days left in the NBA season, the play-in is once again creating major drama, with a some more clarity in the East and absolute madness in the West.
We have a pretty strong idea of what’ll happen in the former, but between fifth and ninth in the latter it’s almost impossible to work out – with the Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans and Timberwolves all able to finish fifth … or needing to win two play-in games just to earn a series against the Nuggets.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down the state of play in the NBA playoff race.
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Boston’s loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday (AEST) locked in the top five, with the Celtics holding the tie-breaker over both the Bucks and Sixers – but unable to take advantage of it.
Despite trading away its superstars Brooklyn (to come: at Pistons, vs Magic, vs Sixers) looks likely to hold onto the last proper playoff spot. The Nets hold the tie-breaker over Miami (to come: at Sixers, at Wizards, vs Magic) meaning they only need to finish level on wins to finish No.6.
That sets up an intriguing first-round playoffs series between Philadelphia and Brooklyn, although Australian Ben Simmons is unavailable after being ruled out for the season.
If the Heat can’t keep it together, Toronto (to come: Celtics, vs Bucks) or Atlanta (to come: vs Sixers, at Celtics) could pinch home-court advantage in the 7-8 play-in game, but it’s more likely the Raptors and Hawks are fighting for eighth, rather than having to host the 9-10 game and win twice to make the playoffs proper.
The Hawks are favoured for No.8 because they hold the tie-breaker and have a slightly easier schedule.
After a loss to the Hawks on Wednesday, Chicago (to come: at Bucks, at Mavericks, vs Pistons) looks extremely likely to be the away team in the 9-10 play-in game, and would need to win twice just to earn a series against Milwaukee.
WESTERN CONFERENCE (Percentage chance of finishing in specific spot)
1. Denver Nuggets (52-27)
Locked into No.1 seed
2. Memphis Grizzlies (50-30)
Locked into playoffs, with a possible seeding of No.2-3 (93% No.2, 7% No.3)
3. Sacramento Kings (48-32)
Locked into playoffs, with a possible seeding of No.2-3 (7% No.2, 93% No.3)
4. Phoenix Suns (44-35)
Locked into No.4 seed
5. Los Angeles Clippers (4-38)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.5-9 (63% No.5, 17% No.6, 12% No.7, 6% No.8, 1% No.9)
6. Golden State Warriors (42-38)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.5-9 (17% No.5, 33% No.6, 23% No.7, 26% No.8, 1% No.9)
7. Los Angeles Lakers (41-39)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.5-9 (6% No.5, 30% No.6, 25% No.7, 28% No.8, 10% No.9)
8. New Orleans Pelicans (41-39)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.5-9 (13% No.5, 12% No.6, 16% No.7, 17% No.8, 42% No.9)
9. Minnesota Timberwolves (40-40)
Locked into play-in tournament, with a possible seeding of No.5-9 (1% No.5, 7% No.6, 23% No.7, 22% No.8, 46% No.9)
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (38-42)
47% No.10, 53% No playoffs
11. Dallas Mavericks (38-42)
53% No.10, 47% No playoffs
Eliminated: Utah Jazz (36-43), Portland Trail Blazers (33-46), San Antonio Spurs (20-59), Houston Rockets (20-60)
Projected first round based on most likely results
No.1 Nuggets vs No.8 (Lakers/Pelicans loser vs Timberwolves/Thunder winner)
No.2 Grizzlies vs No.7 (Lakers/Pelicans winner)
No.3 Kings vs No.6 Warriors
No.4 Suns vs No.5 Clippers
Note: It is extremely difficult to work out the ‘most likely results’ for the No.5-9 seeds so please accept some guess work
NASTY elbow leaves blood on floor! | 00:35
Safe to say the home teams for the first round of the playoffs are a lot easier to predict than the away teams.
Despite losing three of their last four games, Denver (to come: at Suns, at Jazz, vs Kings) secured the No.1 seed in the West after the Grizzlies’ overtime loss to the Pelicans.
Memphis (to come: at Bucks, at Thunder) is likely to claim the No.2 spot but not locked in, as it doesn’t hold the tie-breaker against Sacramento (to come: vs Warriors, at Nuggets).
If the Kings finish 2-1 and the Grizzlies go 0-3, then the Kings would earn the No.2 seed.
Phoenix (to come: vs Nuggets, at Lakers, vs Clippers) has locked up the No.4 seed thanks to results in recent days, but their opponent could be any of five teams.
– Golden State (to come: at Kings, at Trail Blazers)
– LA Clippers (to come: vs Trail Blazers, vs Suns)
– LA Lakers (to come: vs Suns, vs Jazz)
– New Orleans (to come: vs Knicks, vs Timberwolves
– Minnesota (to come: at Spurs, vs Pelicans)
While the Warriors can still finish No.5, they aren’t favour to take that spot — both because they have lost the tie-breaker to every team below them, and because their away form is so awful.
As long as they beat the tanking Trail Blazers, they’ll avoid dropping to ninth, but their clash with the Kings on Saturday (AEST) is absolutely enormous.
Meanwhile, having defeated the Lakers, the Clippers are now in the box seat to finish fifth and earn a date with Phoenix, though with both still to play the Suns, the No.4 seed will have plenty to say about who they face.
Both the Pelicans and Timberwolves need help to avoid the play-in but with a final-day game against each other to come, you’d suspect the winner of their clash will finish No.8 with the loser No.9 (unless one of the teams above them really falls apart this week).
The final battle is between Oklahoma City (to come: at Jazz, vs Grizzlies), Dallas (to come: vs Bulls, vs Spurs) for the No.10 seed.
Josh Giddey’s Thunder hold the tie-breaker over Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s Mavericks and would clinch if it goes 1-1 and Dallas goes 1-1.
Of course, OKC would also be secured a play-in spot if it goes 2-0 or if Dallas ends up dropping both of its final two games.
But if the Thunder win one of their remaining games and the Mavs take both of theirs, it won’t see Giddey and Oklahoma City advance.
