Australia’s World Cup defence just got underway, but already it is hanging by a thread.
If Australia’s maiden T20 World Cup success last year told you anything, it was that it is very hard to qualify for the semi-finals if you lose more than one match. South Africa lost just one pool match but because of their poor net run rate missed the knockout stages.
It means Australia must beat England or risk missing the knockout stages unless an upset is pulled off by the likes of Afghanistan, who boast the brilliant Rashid Khan, along the way.
Here is what we learned from Australia’s crushing defeat.
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AUSSIES ‘ANNIHILATED’ IN WORLD CUP ‘HIDING’ AS TITLE DEFENCE ALREADY HANGS BY A THREAD
Conway TORMENTS Australia to score 92* | 01:29
RUNS ON THE BANK PROVES TOO MUCH
Hitherto, the Australian way has been to put runs on the board and force the opposition to chase the game.
Ricky Ponting continued in that proud trend in 2003 as he batted first against India in the World Cup final.
That way is now long gone, with the world following the MS Dhoni way.
In the lead-in matches against England, Aaron Finch won the toss and sent the opposition in to bat purely on the basis of wanting to practice their run-chases.
Well, two defeats, and surely a third had rain not intervened, did not help.
Nor did sending New Zealand in on what appeared to be a road.
Finn Allen quickly put an end to the debate of his selection over Martin Guptill, smashing Australia’s world class fast-bowling trio of Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
In the end Australia was 201 to win.
For a side with a number of players struggling, the runchase was always likely to prove too much and indeed it did.
DID AUSTRALIA FALL INTO THE MITCH MARSH TRAP OF 2021?
Australia lost one match during last year’s World Cup success: a crushing eight-wicket defeat to England.
It came after Australia surprisingly dropped Mitch Marsh, who had been the best performer all year in a side that had struggled.
Australia may well have lost even if Marsh played, but the decision to leave the first-drop out appeared to rock the side.
Team dynamics are funny things, and the axing of one of the most popular members of the side seemed perplexing and proved to be a poor one after the dust was settled.
Ultimately, Marsh returned the next game and Australia never looked back.
Smith’s non-selection was hardly surprising, but it was startling in other ways.
He is one of the world’s best batters – a player who less than two years ago scored consecutive centuries from 62 balls against India at the SCG – and someone who gives others confidence in the dressing sheds..
His absence was discussed heavily by World Cup winner Michael Clarke, who was flabbergasted by the decision to drop him.
Clarke found support in former NRL and NSW State of Origin great Laurie Daley, who spoke about what the aura players can have.
“I’ve spoken about this in footy, and I assume cricket is the same, when you look around the dressing shed or during a game, and you might be under the pump, but when you look around and you might have Steve Smith, Warner … you’re still confident but if you haven’t got that type of player in your team, you’re sitting back wondering if you can still win,” he responded to Clarke on the Big Sports Breakfast.
Clarke added: “My reason always for (including) someone like a Steve Smith in your team is because not all conditions are the same, if we lose two for not many, you’ve got one of the world’s best batsmen coming in.
“Steve Smith can save you a game as well, he can find you a way of getting to 170 and have a total to defend rather than being bowled out for 100.
“I still think in T20 cricket you need one of those players in your top six batsmen.”
Like Marsh against England last year, Smith may not have won the match with the bat alone – but his presence, his cricket brain in the field, and presence with the pads on the edge of the ground, could have helped.
Phillips flies for ALL-TIME catch! | 00:35
WHAT CHANGES, IF ANY?
Australia has a quick three-day turnaround to get their campaign back on track.
Sri Lanka were shocked by Namibia but you can never rule out the proud cricket nation from causing an upset.
Will Australia make changes?
It was a question former New Zealand wicket-keeper batter Ian Smith asked.
“Where will Australia go from here?” Smith asked Shane Watson in commentary as Australia lost their ninth wicket.
“This game is not over but there’s a big bench there, there’s some experience on that bench and this competition means quick decisions.”
Watson, who came through a period most Australian cricketers, including himself, were afforded second chances.
“One thing the Australians have done is they normally stick to what they know,” he said.
“And they’re going to have to, because you can’t just allow one loss to make things go a little bit too hectic.
“There’s going to be a lot of questions asked.
“Australia have got to keep the path, they’ve got to stay on track with their game-plan, they committed to it quite a while ago, three or four months ago with Aaron Finch and Dave Warner at the top, they committed to Steve Smith moving out from number four and now there’s going to be some questions around whether that was the right commitment.
“For me, they did make the right choices and now they’ve got to stick strong with it.”
Watson is right, Australia is unlikely to make any changes but they do have options.
Smith can do a job and be an insurance player in the middle while Cameron Green, who was a last-minute call up for the injured Josh Inglis, could allow Australia to be creative with their line-up.
But would they take a gamble and drop one of their three quicks? Unlikely.
Nathan Ellis is another player who might be considered, but as Watson said, Australia is likely to be conservative with their selection.
IS IT OVER BEFORE IT REALLY STARTED
Australia’s World Cup title defence dangles by a thread.
In fact, it’s possible that Australia isn’t even in last chance saloon, but is already doomed for an early exit.
Given only two teams progress to the semi finals from a pool of six, only one loss can have dire consequences at the World Cup.
Just look at South Africa last year.
The Proteas narrowly lost their first match of the tournament to Australia and, despite winning each of their remaining matches, they couldn’t recover.
Their 4-1 record handed them an identical ratio to Australia and England, who topped the pool, but South Africa went home with an inferior net run rate.
Australia, meanwhile, scraped through and went on to win the entire tournament.
But now it’s Australia who might’ve just left its fate out of its hands – even it was to win all four of its remaining games.
In truth, that’s an awfully tall order considering the form the team is in and the calibre of opponent that is to come.
Australia will be expected to beat Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, although neither nation will be a walkover, while there should be an internal review that rivals Sandpapergate if Finch’s side was to lose to Ireland.
Even if Australia negotiates those banana peels, there’s still the matter of playing England in Melbourne on October 28.
Australia is fresh from losing 2-0 to England in a three-match series. At the last World Cup, England hammered Australia in the pool stage by eight wickets.
Beating England at this point feels awfully tough for Australia unless it can rediscover the magic.
Should Australia lose to England, it will need to beat Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Ireland, and hope that the loser of England vs New Zealand suffers an upset against one of the three smaller cricketing nations, and ends with a lower net run rate.
DID AUSTRALIA SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT?
As Australia lost its three-match series against England a week before starting the World Cup, Aaron Finch admitted Australia was fatigued.
“I think the guys are probably a little bit tired at the moment,” Finch said.
“The schedule has been so packed over the last six to eight weeks that we identified a couple of months ago that we wanted to make sure that we’re in a position to be peaking at the right time of the World Cup and not beforehand.
“So it’s going to be important over the next couple of days to try and freshen everyone up as much as we can.”
And fair enough. Australia had just played series against Zimbabwe, New Zealand and the West Indies, as well as going on a tour of India in the space of little over a month.
No wonder the players were starting to feel the pinch, and the results were starting to go south.
It should also come as no surprise that just a week after that final England match, Australia still looked far from a rejuvenated unit on Saturday.
Australia played another match after that England series, a warm-up match against India on Monday, before finally trying to freshen up for game one against New Zealand.
It didn’t take long on Saturday to see what team was better prepared.
Finn Allen had the glint in his eye and promptly smoked Mitchell Starc for 14 runs in the first over, which included a six on just the third ball.
All of Australia’s bowlers were expensive on the night and, in the chase, the hosts appeared to throw in the towel early.
Shane Watson said Australia looked like a spent force just three balls into the match.
“Australia, you could just see their energy evaporate from the second or third ball of Mitchell Starc’s first over and they just weren’t able to get it back,” Watson said.
Things won’t get much better from here either. Australia must now get on a long flight across the country to Perth and front up again on Tuesday night.
