It’s going to be very tough for the Australian contingent to match last year’s Ash Barty heroics, particularly with the only two seeded locals in line to face Novak Djokovic early.
But if you think things are tough on the men’s side, wait until you see how the main Aussie women’s hope has fared.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down the winners and losers from the 2023 Australian Open draw.
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Djoker evicts brother, wins 92nd title! | 03:41
WINNERS
Novak Djokovic
We don’t mean ‘winners’ in the sense that he has already won the tournament… but, well, maybe?
The nine-time champion has little to worry about in the early stages of his return to Melbourne Park, with things getting interesting for Aussie fans in the fourth round, when Alex de Minaur could be his opponent.
The quarter-finals may be the first stage where Djokovic really has to sweat, with either Nick Kyrgios, No.9 Holger Rune or No.5 Andrey Rublev on the cards for him – three of the toughest opponents he could’ve gotten at that stage of the tournament.
But most notably for Djokovic he is on the opposite side of the draw to both No.1 Rafael Nadal and No.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas, with No.2 Casper Ruud his projected semi-final opponent.
It’s hard to imagine what a tough draw for Djokovic would’ve looked like, admittedly, but this isn’t it.
Rafa happy despite recent form concern | 00:51
Nick Kyrgios… just
This is all about meeting expectations – and Kyrgios has the chance to do that in 2023.
Seeded 19th, it would be fair to expect the Canberran to reach the second week of his home slam. Early showdowns with Roman Safiullin and either Richard Gasquet or Ugo Humbert won’t be simple, but Kyrgios will be favoured.
In the third round he’s projected to meet Holger Rune, who is just 19 years old but seeded 9th. He is clearly a star of the future but Rune has not been past the first round at Melbourne Park before. Again, winnable.
Even in the fourth round, where Russian No.5 seed Andrey Rublev may await, Kyrgios would not be too concerned. The pair have met three times, with the Aussie winning twice, most recently a straight sets win in Miami last year.
In the quarter-finals a Novak Djokovic-shaped brick wall awaits, but Kyrgios was surely going to have to beat the nine-time champion at some point anyway if he was going to win the tournament. The quarters are one stage later than he could’ve drawn Djokovic.
If you predicted a week ago Kyrgios would be knocked out in the quarter-finals, wouldn’t that sound entirely sensible? That’s what’s on the cards. So things could be worse.
Djoker & the King to face off before AO | 01:18
The bottom half of the women’s draw
We could just write here ‘because they’re on the opposite side to Iga Swiatek’ and that’d basically be correct. But it’s not just that.
Swiatek is the dominant tournament favourite and clear world No.1, but she’s on the same side as arguably her two biggest threats – No.7 Coco Gauff, who she could face in the quarter-finals, and No.3 Jessica Pegula, who she could face in the semis.
The fourth round will also not be easy for Swiatek with her projected opponents including Danielle Collins, who beat her in the semi-finals here last year, or Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina.
Also in the top half of the draw are threats like No.11 Paula Badosa, No.15 Petra Kvitova, No.6 Maria Sakkari and the only two former Australian Open champions in the entire women’s tournament, Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin (who face each other in Round 1).
And so if you’re in the bottom half of the draw, you should be happy. The top seeds are No.2 Ons Jabeur, the trail-blazing Tunisian who hasn’t been past the quarter-finals here (but made the final of the most recent US Open) and No.4 Caroline Garcia, who hasn’t been past the fourth round here.
The second favourite in tournament betting Aryna Sabalenka is in the bottom half, but she’s incredibly streaky and like Garcia has never made it into the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park.
We’re not saying the bottom half is wide open – there are clearly threats to win the title here. But it’s as wide open as a draw can be at its beginning.
At the very least we’re expecting one women’s finalist where casual Aussie tennis fans go “who’s she?”
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LOSERS
Ajla Tomljanovic
A back-to-back grand slam quarter-finalist, Tomljanovic will be rueing her ill-timed injury which forced her to withdraw from the Australian Open lead-up events.
They robbed her of any chance to gain ranking points and secure a seed – instead she fell two places short. And while she wasn’t drawn against a seeded opponent in Round 1, things get difficult immediately after her opener against Argentina’s Nadia Podoroska.
For a start in Round 2 she’s guaranteed to face a former Australian Open champion – either No.24 Victoria Azarenka, or Sofia Kenin.
Then it could be No.10 Madison Keys, followed by No.6 Maria Sakkari in the fourth round. Her projected opponents from there are merely the two most dangerous women in the draw – No.3 Jessica Pegula in the quarter-finals and No.1 Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals.
In total, Tomljanovic’s projected draw includes five top-10 seeds and a former tournament champion. Brutal.
‘Demon’ takes down Thiem in winning run | 01:32
Alex de Minaur
The Demon was in a similar situation to Nick Kyrgios, based on where he was seeded (No.22), and ended up getting a slightly worse draw.
To put it simply, he can face Novak Djokovic in the fourth round – which was as early as de Minaur could’ve drawn Djokovic. And facing the Serb is a great way to limit your progress at Melbourne Park.
But de Minaur may struggle to even reach a Djokovic showdown, with projected third round opponent No.14 Pablo Carreno Busta no easy-beat. Heck, even big John Isner in the second round could be too much to handle.
De Minaur’s win over Rafa Nadal at the United Cup was undoubtedly a great sign, but making the second week of his home slam will require at least one big upset – either by him, or someone else.
Kokkinakis shocks World No.6 in Adelaide | 01:42
Thanasi Kokkinakis
The fan favourite has never made it into the third round of the Australian Open before, and it’ll be a mighty struggle to get there in 2023.
Kokkinakis opens against fiery Italian Fabio Fognini – which should certainly be great viewing, but Fognini is a multiple-time fourth rounder at Melbourne Park, so it’ll be tricky. Of course if there’s any player who could crack in front of a highly-partisan Aussie crowd it’d be Fognini.
If Kokkinakis gets through that, he’d have to face either Andy Murray or reigning semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini. You’ve heard of those players, so you know they’re good.
To put a positive spin on things for the Aussie contingent, only one – wildcard Kimberly Birrell – is drawn to face a seed in Round 1.
John Millman (vs Marc-Andrea Huesler), Rinky Hijikata (vs qualifier), Jason Kubler (vs Sebastian Baez), Chris O’Connell (vs Jenson Brooksby) and Jordan Thompson (vs JJ Wolf) can all head into their first-round match-ups believing a win is possible.
