Australia was on the brink of a straight-sets Ashes victory but is now grappling with the new reality that a bitter fight-to-the-death is on its hands.
England is firmly back in the contest, and is riding high after winning another tense Test at Headingley to reduce its series deficit to Australia to 2-1.
Another dire performance by David Warner in England has guaranteed that his position will dominate the selection debate until the next Test at Old Trafford starts on July 19.
But he’s not the only Australian who’s no longer safe.
These are the five big questions selectors must answer for the fourth Test at Old Trafford.
IS IT TIME FOR WARNER TO GO?
Australia losing at Headingley to keep the Ashes series alive makes this situation an even murkier one.
In an ideal world for selectors, Australia would’ve wrapped up the series in Leeds to knock the wind right out of any calls for Warner to be dropped: Playing him across a couple of dead rubbers before a farewell tour this summer wouldn’t have ruffled many feathers.
But now that the Ashes is still alive, and England is riding high again, Warner is firmly back in the crosshairs.
Whether selectors pull the trigger or not is a decision that will pit cold-blooded analysis against warm-hearted sentiment across the next week-and-a-half.
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The numbers are damning: 33 innings in England at just 25.33, and a high score of 85.
To put that into context, of Australia’s top-50 all-time Test run-scorers in England, only six have worse averages than Warner.
Making matters worse is that Warner’s last eight Ashes Tests in England have seen him average 14.75 with a high score of 66.
And while he started the current series in quiet, if not respectable fashion, scores of 4 and 1 at Headingley with two dismissals to Stuart Broad — who has now dismissed him 17 times — paints an alarming picture with all to play for.
Nonetheless, the sentimental side of the equation will take into account Warner’s legendary thirst to have the last say, as well as his invaluable experience.
He’s been known to pull out iconic innings with his back to the wall before.
After his trainwreck 2019 Ashes series, he returned home to score a triple century at the Adelaide Oval. More recently, he was under immense pressure last summer until he scored 200 at the Boxing Day Test in oppressive conditions.
Sceptics will fairly point out that both of those innings came at home, however, while it is away where Warner faces his biggest demons.
The only way to answer the Warner question is to first ask another one: “Is there anyone who will do a better job here and now?”
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WHO CAN STEP STRAIGHT IN?
It’s all well and good to call for Warner to be dropped, but in terms of like-for-like replacements, does Australia have the quality needed to make an improvement?
Australia has long had a dearth of Test-calibre openers, which is why Usman Khawaja was reinvented as one, and why Warner’s crisis has been allowed to go on this long in the first place.
In Australia’s Ashes camp, Marcus Harris stands as the only ready-made opener to replace Warner.
Such an elevation, however, would not be without considerable risk.
Harris has had his own struggles at Test level having never made the most of multiple call-ups to the Australian XI.
The left-hander has 14 Test matches under his belt, but has only averaged 25.29, and raised the bat for fifty on just three occasions.
He has is own nightmarish past in England, too — he averaged 9.66 from three Tests in the 2019 series.
It’s true, however, that Harris is a better player than he was then, and has made some impressive gains through the County Championship with Gloucestershire. He’s made two centuries for the county and averaged 57.12 from five matches this year, while he made another three centuries last season.
Nonetheless, with no tour matches, Harris hasn’t played since mid-May and has no further means from which to press his case.
The same could be said for Matthew Renshaw who has also opened the batting at Test level.
Renshaw has also played 14 Tests, but averages only a shade more than Harris at 29.31. However, he memorably made 184 against Pakistan at the SCG as an opener in 2017.
Renshaw ended a lengthy Test exile during the summer after a long run of impressive performances domestically, but weather and Covid heavily-impacted his comeback, while a poor showing in India booted him back to the selection pile.
Unlike Harris, he hasn’t played in the County Championship this season, with his most recent first-class match coming in early April against New Zealand A.
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IS THERE A BETTER WAY?
Somewhat ironically, Australia’s best options to replace Warner may not be openers at all.
Instead, given the depth of quality Australia has lower down the order, there could be a temptation to shuffle the deck to fit in the best personnel, and not just the next best opener.
Which brings us to Mitch Marsh.
Playing in his first Test in nearly four years, coming to the crease at 4-85, and with Mark Wood bowling thunderbolts on a deck with a bit in it, Marsh made 118 at a run-a-ball.
It simply doesn’t get much better than that.
Combined with two wickets for the Test and another 28 second-innings runs, Marsh enjoyed one of the best comeback Tests Australia could’ve hoped for.
It now begs the question, how do you leave him out?
True, it would be an incredibly harsh axing, but it’s not one selectors will necessarily shy away from just to protect feelings. Just ask Kurtis Patterson whose second — and probably last — Test innings, was 114 not out.
Other more recent examples, however, will give Marsh greater hope.
Scott Boland came from nowhere to take 6-7 at the MCG in 2021, and so he played at the SCG a week later. Khawaja ended his own three-year Test exile last January as a Covid-replacement for Travis Head. Today he’s one of the first names on the Australian team sheet after he made back-to-back centuries in that Test.
How Marsh holds onto his spot with wonderkid Cameron Green expected to return to full fitness by the fourth Test is unclear.
The most clean-cut way it happens is that Green is simply kept on the sidelines and told to bide his time.
At just 24 years old, he certainly has a lot of it, while any short-term axing won’t stop any long-term charge towards all-round greatness in Australian whites.
Nonetheless, given his talent and popularity, Green being kept out of the Australian XI while a struggling Warner is retained could be met with considerable backlash.
As such, it opens the door to the left-field option of having two fast-bowling all-rounders, with someone taking the bullet to open the batting for Warner.
This was a solution former Australia captain Michael Clarke discussed on Monday, saying it would be the team’s best way forward if Warner was to be dropped.
“If it’s time (for Warner), I wouldn’t even be thinking about who opens the batting because you’ve got options,” he said on Sky Sports Radio, adding that promoting Harris or Renshaw instead would be a “silly” solution.
“I reckon Mitch Marsh is in form. If he had to do it, he could do it. Alex Carey probably won’t because he’s got to keep, but Travis Head could do it. Marnus Labuschagne isn’t making as many runs as he should at No.3. He could open, Smithy could go to No.3 and Head to No.4 (with Marsh and Green No.5 and No.6).”
While none are red ball openers, Marsh, Green and Head all have opening experience against the white ball, while Labuschagne could have the skillset to make the leap, too.
Green has the most recent opening experience having batted at the top of the Mumbai order for part of their winning IPL campaign — although his best work was done at No.3.
Marsh, meanwhile, opened the batting in three ODIs against India in March and averaged 97.
Head easily has the most experience opening the batting at international level, however. The South Australian replaced the concussed Warner at the top of the Test order in India and averaged 55.75 from five innings.
He’s also opened in an ODI 21 times at an average of 50.60.
Selectors would need to decide if elevating Head would be worth losing his impact in the middle-order, where he has become one of the world’s best counterattacking batters.
If selectors take the view of ‘if it ain’t broke…’ with Head, Labuschagne is an option who has been floated before.
Labuschagne would form a right-left-hand combination with Khawaja that could help nullify Stuart Broad’s threat early on.
And although he’s been struggling on these fronts recently, Labuschagne has previously displayed an exceptional discipline at the crease, and outstanding judgement when leaving the ball. If he can rediscover those skills, he could be a strong Test opener yet.
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WILL THERE BE ANY BOWLING CHANGES?
There’s no way around it — Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc had it all to do themselves at Headingley with little wicket-taking support.
Of the 17 wickets Australia took during the third Test, all but three came from the fast-bowling duo.
Scott Boland has been a revelation on home soil, but any major threat in English conditions has simply failed to materialise at the Ashes where he has two wickets at 115.50.
Boland was wicketless from 21 overs at Headingley, while he’s been a popular target for England’s Bazball bursts, going for an expensive 4.91 runs-an-over this series.
Boland’s display at Headingley led to India commentator Harsha Bhogle describing the support for Cummins and Starc as “insipid”.
With a healthy Josh Hazlewood waiting on the sidelines, it now seems certain that Boland will drop back out of the Australian XI.
While Hazlewood has been far from a wrecking ball himself, he took eight wickets at 32.50 across the first two Tests and will have the benefit of more than two weeks’ rest between the final day at Lord’s and the first at Old Trafford.
The 32-year-old is a clear favourite to take his spot back from Boland, but it would be remiss to not mention the credentials of Michael Neser, too.
The Queensland veteran is patiently biding his time in the Australian squad, looking to add to his two Test appearances.
Neser has long been billed as potentially a major threat in England conditions given his ability to swing the ball, particularly the Dukes when it was used in the Sheffield Shield for four seasons.
The 33-year-old has done himself no harm in his two prior Test matches, taking seven wickets at the low average of 16.71. Both of those matches, however, came with the pink ball at Adelaide Oval.
DOES AUSTRALIA TRUST TODD MURPHY?
The other way Neser could find himself in a baggy green again would be if Australia went without a specialist spinner altogether.
That outcome seems unlikely given Australia has fielded a specialist tweaker in every Test it’s played for well over a decade, while Old Trafford is England’s best venue for spin in this series.
Nonetheless, it feels worth mentioning here given Cummins’ reluctance to give Murphy a big role at Headingley.
The 22-year-old was meant to be a direct replacement for Nathan Lyon as his heir, but his role in the third Test looked nothing like that of Australia’s greatest wicket-taking off-spinner.
Cummins delayed giving the ball to Murphy in both innings — to the surprise of many pundits — while he bowled less than 10 overs in the entire Test.
True that England’s batters came after him — especially Ben Stokes, as expected — but you can’t help but wonder why he was picked if he was to be used so sparingly. The likes of Head surely could’ve offered 10 overs of spin to similar effect.
To that point, even if he’s extremely likely to be picked at Old Trafford, Cummins’ use of Murphy doesn’t exactly scream ‘Test lock’.
Conditions will have the final say — and they are expected to offer something for spinners, as they typically do at Old Trafford.
Nonetheless, should conditions surprise everyone and a green seamer be revealed, Murphy may no longer be safe.
