By Jake Niall
Carlton’s capitulation to Sydney on Friday night bore little resemblance to the elimination final of last year between the clubs, when the Blues controlled much of the game and then fended off the fierce underdog Swans late to win by six points, triggering a wave of rapture at the MCG.
This SCG rout, indeed, looked more like a less flattering version of the preliminary final (v the Lions) at the Gabba for the Blues, who, as in that final, bolted out of the gate to boot the first four or five goals, only to be reeled in by midway through the second quarter by the superior home side.
The beaten Blues leave the SCG after being pummelled by the Swans.Credit: AFL Photos
By half-time, Jacob Weitering was in tracksuit pants on the bench, becoming yet another casualty – and the most significant, if he misses – in a season that risks being unravelled by injury and the consequent loss of continuity, cohesion and confidence, in that order.
The game felt over, and it soon would be.
The Carlton side that beat the Swans on that stirring Friday night last September contained eight players who weren’t present this time: Adam Cerra, Adam Saad, Sam Docherty, Matthew Cottrell, Jesse Motlop, Lachie Fogarty, David Cuningham and Jack Martin.
A number of the missing have been beset with soft-tissue injuries that have put Andrew Russell, Carlton’s head of condition, under more scrutiny than any player.
Conversely, the Swans had lost only four from their finals-losing 23 and had ready replacements. They didn’t have skipper Callum Mills, key defender Tom McCartin (potentially the biggest omission given Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay’s presence), ruckman Tom Hickey (retired) and, in a measure of genuine depth, couldn’t find a spot for three-time All-Australian and warrior Luke Parker.
The Swans have upgraded the ruck by bringing in Brodie Grundy in place of Hickey, gaining also Taylor Adams from Collingwood for midfield grunt and James Jordon from the Demons.
Sam Walsh, who had been super in that elimination final, was smothered by Jordon in this game, as Grundy outpointed an improved Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning in the ruck.
So, a postcard perfect beginning quickly went ugly, with the upshot that the Blues, who were humming at 4-0 and still on the march a month ago at 5-1, are wobbling and now among the cohort fighting for a spot in the eight.
Carlton star Jacob Weitering suffered a game-ending corky.Credit: Getty Images
“Not going there mate,” said Michael Voss, when asked if injuries were an excuse for the 52-point drubbing. “We had a team out there that could get the job done … it presents some challenges, but it’s not insurmountable [the injuries].”
The coming month could well define Carlton’s 2024 campaign. They play a suddenly dangerous Gold Coast at Docklands, then Port Adelaide away, Essendon (King’s Birthday eve) and Geelong again (then the likely respite of decimated Richmond). Lose three of the next four, and they’d be 7-7 and outside the eight, needing at least six wins from the back nine just to qualify.
Small defenders, small forwards and midfield run are the areas of most immediate concern. The most alarming number from the SCG – besides the scoreboard – was running bounces, the speedy Swans having 17 to Carlton’s nil, as Chad Warner and Nick Blakey sped away from grasping Blues as if they were the Roadrunner.
Saad, who can be counted on to run and carry from behind the ball, is probably the most crucial of the missing Blues (not counting Weitering), given their lack of overlap and run compared with Sydney. Happily, Saad is slated to return for the Suns game, with Motlop also a chance.
Docherty, alas, will not be back this year to mop up ground balls in defence, while Zac Williams – who’s had a star-crossed run since crossing from the Giants on big coin – isn’t really picking up the slack.
Nic Newman, the ex-Swan, continues to get a truckload of the ball in defence, but the Blues were exposed on the deck by the sharper Swans. In attack, Curnow and McKay started with menace and were subsequently starved by a combination of one-way midfield traffic and poor quality entries.
Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean mightn’t be in the postcode of Curnow and McKay, but they competed well (helped once Weitering left the field) and the Blues, conversely, don’t have midfielders who can kick goals like Isaac Heeney and Warner (three each), nor a small forward of gadfly Tom Papley’s calibre.
Carlton need Will Hayward, a free agent, more than Sydney, but if the Swans can find some salary cap space (not much there), you’d wonder why Hayward would leave.
Swans gun Chad Warner had a big night against the Blues.Credit: AFL Photos
Carlton people, within the club and outside, can console themselves with the fact that the Swans are the clear-cut top seed. The Blues will regain Saad and Cerra hopefully will right his hamstring issues and Weitering recover swiftly.
“You’re never too sure what the actual damage is until maybe 48 hours later,” said Voss of the irreplaceable Weitering.
The Blues, at their best, can test and sometimes beat the best. Their victory over the Giants was their high watermark to date, albeit they relied then on Walsh and Patrick Cripps to completely take over at the centre bounces, a longshot scenario versus Sydney’s ballistic midfield. Sydney are just about the worst possible opponent for Carlton, too, given their pace and foot skills.
In a competition of micro-margins, the Blues don’t have the depth to cover more than a few missing pieces. And right now, there’s more than a few.
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