Some fans still might be trying to get home from Doha, Qatar, and there are people still celebrating in the streets of Buenos Aires. The blood alcohol content of some of Argentina’s players has not probably yet returned to normal levels (and good for them). The exhausting World Cup — which was somehow both a marathon and a sprint — is still pretty large in the rearview mirror, and now we get a bit of a break before club soccer returns to command our attention.
[puts finger in ear like old-timey newscaster getting a sudden update] I’m sorry, I’m being told that Liverpool is playing Manchester City later today. Oh.
– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)
That’s right, friends, European club soccer is already back. England’s Carabao Cup and Spain’s Copa del Rey returned this week, and four of Europe’s five biggest leagues resume play next week. (The Bundesliga actually gives its players time off and won’t resume for a few more weeks.) Consider this your primer for dipping your toe back into the club waters: Here are the 11 matches you absolutely need to follow over the next two weeks.
Dec. 22: Liverpool at Manchester City (Carabao Cup)
City vs. Liverpool! Pep vs. Klopp! It gives you a sense of whiplash that one of soccer’s biggest current club rivalries is already on the docket (3 p.m., ESPN+). Liverpool and City have combined to win the past five Premier League titles and snare three of the past four EPL runners-up slots, two of the past four FA Cups, four Champions League final appearances (with one win) and, most pertinent to this exact moment, four of the past five Carabao Cups.
The megaclubs were drawn together for the fourth round — god bless random draws. Wolves drew fourth-division Gillingham (and looked very poor in advancing 2-0 at home), while Liverpool drew a trip to the Etihad. While it’s likely that we will see some reserves in the mix, there might not be as many as you think.
Of Liverpool’s current top 11 players (from a minutes perspective), only five played in Qatar, and only three topped 100 minutes (Netherlands defender Virgil van Dijk, Brazil goalkeeper Alisson and England midfielder Jordan Henderson). Midfielder Fabinho (Brazil) and right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold (England) combined for a pair of appearances, summer signing Darwin Nunez played 242 minutes for Uruguay and defender Ibrahima Konate played in five of France‘s seven matches. But stars such as attackers Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino and left-back Andy Robertson didn’t make the trip — Nunez, Salah and Firmino could all be of particular importance in the coming weeks with Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota injured — and despite the club’s stature, Liverpool amassed only 1,789 total minutes in Qatar, 12th among clubs in Europe’s Big Five leagues and fifth among Premier League teams.
Total World Cup minutes by Premier League club (not including stoppage time):
1. Manchester City 4,628 minutes (seven players over 350)
2. Manchester United 3,694 (five)
3. Tottenham Hotspur 3,634 (five)
4. Chelsea 3,332 (five)
5. Liverpool 1,789 (two)
6. Brighton 1,543 (one)
7. Arsenal 1,339 (one)
8. Fulham 1,331 (two)
9. Aston Villa 1,216 (two)
10. West Ham United 1,157 (two)
11. Leicester City 999 (none)
12. Everton 825 (one)
13. Nottingham Forest 691 (none)
14. Leeds United 689 (one)
15. Wolves 514 (none)
16. Brentford 510 (none)
17. Bournemouth 495 (none)
18. Newcastle United 453 (none)
19. Crystal Palace 406 (none)
20. Southampton 270 (none)
City, on the other hand, was the most represented club at the World Cup. Of the 21 players who have recorded at least one Premier League minute for Manchester City, 16 made at least a brief appearance in Qatar, seven played at least 350 minutes — Argentina‘s Julian Alvarez, England’s John Stones, Portugal‘s Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva, Netherlands’ Nathan Ake, Spain‘s Rodri and Switzerland‘s Manuel Akanji — and six more played at least 190 minutes.
City easily recorded the most combined minutes in the competition — only Barcelona (4,301 minutes) was within 900 minutes of their total — which is jarring considering they had only one player on a team that reached even the semifinals (Alvarez). Where might their minutes total have ended up if, say, England (five City players) or Portugal (three) have advanced further?
How much of an effect will this have? It’s obviously hard to say. This club has the deepest squad imaginable, and while they could be spread thin at center-back at the moment as Ake, Stones, Dias and Akanji all logged heavy minutes, they could also be pretty well rested in attack. Neither Erling Haaland nor Riyad Mahrez played in Qatar, and English stars Phil Foden and Jack Grealish for only 340 minutes between them. Plus, both Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) and Ilkay Gundogan (Germany) were on their way home by the time the knockout rounds began.
If the defense avoids heavy legs, the rest of the City squad could be ready to hit the ground running once EPL play resumes on Monday. And quite a few stars could see the pitch on Thursday evening as well, whether or not Grealish is back from his New York adventure yet.
Dec. 26: Tottenham Hotspur at Brentford (Premier League)
The Premier League season returns in full next week, with seven matches on Monday and three more on Tuesday and Wednesday. There aren’t many truly high-stakes battles right out of the gate — first-place Arsenal faces 16th-place West Ham, second-place City plays 15th-place Leeds — but we do get a pretty interesting matchup at Brentford Community Stadium.
Brentford starts the back half of the season (well, more like back two-thirds, I guess) in 10th place, but the Bees are well rested — only wingers Bryan Mbeumo (Cameroon) and Mikkel Damsgaard (Denmark) recorded even 90 minutes in Qatar, and none of their players played in the knockout rounds — and are only three points out of sixth. Meanwhile, if there’s a team particularly impacted by the World Cup grind, it could be Tottenham Hotspur. Midfielder Ivan Perisic (Croatia), defender Cristian Romero (Argentina) and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris (France) all recorded heavy minutes for semifinalists, and attackers Harry Kane (England), Son Heung-Min (South Korea) and Richarlison (Brazil) all played at least 325 minutes. Richarlison returned with a hamstring injury, too.
In all, 10 Spurs regulars played in the World Cup, nine put in at least 214 minutes and five of those are at least 29 years old. If Spurs were to start slowly upon their return to action, you really couldn’t blame them, but any funk could be costly: They’re currently in fourth place, but they’re only three points up on Manchester United and seven up on Liverpool, and both of those clubs have a game in hand. Spurs start out with a trip to Brentford and a visit from a well-rested Aston Villa team that finished the pre-World Cup run in good form (sixth in xG differential over the two months before action stopped). They’ve got a couple of tricky hurdles to clear.
There are few more reliable entities in soccer than Athletic Club. The beloved Bilbao institution always plays just about the stiffest defense in Europe, and that’s no different in 2022-23: They’re currently allowing 0.7 xG per match in La Liga (first), and they’re both second in shots allowed per possession (0.10) and first in xG allowed per shot (0.08).
What’s different this season, however, is the upside that the duo of Inaki and Nico Williams are bringing to attack. They have combined for eight goals and four assists in league play, and Athletic is actually currently third in goals scored per match at 1.7. They are fourth in the La Liga table, two points behind Real Sociedad for third, and they should be well rested — only three players recorded minutes in Qatar (the Williamses and Spanish goalkeeper Unai Simon), and only Simon logged more than 252.
Of course, outside of the biggest Spanish clubs, just about everyone in La Liga is well rested as play gets ready to resume next Thursday.
Total World Cup minutes by La Liga club:
In terms of Champions League positioning, Athletic’s Thursday trip to Seville might be the biggest on the docket over the next couple of weeks. Real Betis is part of the three-way tie for fourth with Athletic and Atletico Madrid, and only right back Youssouf Sabaly (Senegal) and midfielder William Carvalho (Portugal) played more than 60 minutes in Qatar. (Midfielder Guido Rodríguez and defender German Pezzella both played small roles for Argentina.)
Betis sacrifices shot quantity (15th in shots per possession) for shot quality (second in xG per shot), and they should be near full-strength for Athletic’s visit.
Dec. 30: Benfica at Braga (Portuguese Primera Liga)
Of this past summer’s hires, few have worked out as well as Benfica luring Roger Schmidt away from PSV Eindhoven. After finishing a distant third in the Primeira Liga last season (17 points behind champion Porto) and losing star striker Darwin Nunez to Liverpool, Benfica have surged, topping PSG to win their Champions League group and dropping just two points in their first 13 league matches. They’re eight points ahead of second-place Porto and flying high.
However, they too could be ripe for a World Cup hangover. Defender Nicolas Otamendi and midfielder Enzo Fernandez recorded a combined 1,263 minutes during Argentina’s title run while four others, including key attackers Goncalo Ramos and Joao Mario, played at least 90 minutes in Qatar. Benfica players didn’t record a Manchester City level of minutes by any means, but if they suffer any sort of slow start with the resumption of play, Braga could take advantage. They are a surprising third in league play, three points ahead of Sporting CP and only one behind Porto for second. Only winger Ricardo Horta (Portugal) played any sort of role in Qatar, and their frantic, high-volume attack could wrong-foot Benfica.
This is a tricky winter road trip.
It was predictably a different story for Barca. Fourteen members of the squad played in Qatar: three went over 400 minutes (France’s Jules Kounde and Ousmane Dembele, the Netherlands’ Frenkie de Jong) and 12 went over 200, including mid-30s veterans Robert Lewandowski, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba. This might not be a big deal — it’s still another nine days before they first see the pitch — but they’ll immediately face an opponent that is raring to go.
Jan. 1: PSG at Lens (French Ligue 1)
Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Achraf Hakimi: Three of the biggest World Cup stars all play for PSG, as do Brazil’s Neymar and Marquinhos and five others who saw action in Qatar. PSG’s first match is next Wednesday, but it’s at home against 19th-place Strasbourg. Soon enough comes a big test, though.
After back-to-back seventh-place finishes following promotion in 2020, Lens is currently in second place, the only team within single digits of PSG in the Ligue 1 table. Midfielders Salis Abdul Samed (Ghana) and Przemyslaw Frankowski (Poland) each topped 240 minutes in Qatar, but most of the squad is fresh.
I’m not going to try to convince you they or anyone else will be a serious threat to PSG, but they’ve lost only once in league play (1-0 to Lille in October), and if they can catch PSG flat-footed here, they could remain in the race for a while anyway. Franck Haise has a really intriguing squad, and this match is a great opportunity for them.
