Arsenal are 90% of the way to becoming a title-winning team for the first time since 2004, but it is that missing 10% that might ultimately see them fail to win the Premier League this season. With eight matches to go, the fine margins that are the difference between success and failure are beginning to work against the Gunners and favour second-place Manchester City, who are six points behind and have a game in hand vs. West Ham.
Arsenal still have time, and one huge game at the Etihad on April 26, to swing the momentum back in their direction. But Sunday’s 2-2 draw against Liverpool at Anfield — when Mikel Arteta’s team raced into a 2-0 lead, lost focus and then conceded an equaliser in the 87th minute — was all about that elusive 10% and they were unable to make it count when it mattered most.
For all their progress this season and the exhilarating manner in which they have led the title race for most of the campaign, Arsenal still struggle against their main rivals when the pressure is on.
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The 3-2 win against Manchester United at the Emirates in January was a big one, but United are a side in transition under Erik ten Hag so that victory can’t be classed as one that made a significant difference. Yet the results that could return to haunt Arsenal if they miss out on the title will be the 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle in January, the 3-1 defeat against City at the Emirates in February and Sunday’s draw at Liverpool — games when a win would have felt like more than simply three points.
Arteta has corrected Arsenal’s long-term flaw of being a soft touch against teams they would expect to beat. For years the team saw finishing fourth as a success, but a new standard has been set and, with only a handful of squad members to have played under Arsene Wenger before he left in 2018, a new ethos cultivated. The final piece of the jigsaw is winning when the pressure is at its most intense against the best teams in the league.
In their head-to-head fixtures against the current top four, they have taken no points against City (one defeat), one from Newcastle (one draw) and three against United (one win; one defeat). The fact that Arsenal still have to play their return fixtures away against City (April 26) and Newcastle (May 7) — with Chelsea at home (April 29) in between — will either be a source of motivation or concern for Arteta and his players. Though, looking at their record, it will certainly be of concern for their fans.
We will only know how good this Arsenal team are at the end of the season. They have been excellent so far, showing a huge improvement on recent years, but their 2022-23 race to the title could be set to unwind in the final straight if they aren’t able to win against their rivals. Few trophies are claimed without a test of nerve during the run-in, so if they are to finish the season as champions, they will likely have to come away with victory at either City or Newcastle, or hope that Pep Guardiola’s team drop points along the way.
The harsh reality, though, is that Arsenal could end the season with 94 points and still finish second. Currently on 73, they will likely need to amass 95 (22 from the remaining 24 on offer) to finish as champions — five more than the club’s biggest Premier League points tally, which was recorded by Wenger’s “Invincibles” in 2003-04.
