The European weekend again served up a healthy, tasty menu of drama for all of us across the big leagues. Newcastle upset Tottenham away from home to give further credence to what they’re building, while Victor Osimhen‘s return for Napoli was marked with a goal and another three points. Elsewhere, Real Madrid and Barcelona notched confidence-boosting victories in LaLiga, Bayern Munich inched closer to a struggling Union Berlin in the Bundesliga table, and Liverpool‘s top-four hopes took a hit with a humbling defeat at Nottingham Forest.
There were also talking points for Dortmund (welcome back, Giovanni Reyna), Milan and Arsenal, who thought they’d win with ease at Southampton only to succumb to a second-half goal and two points dropped. (With Erling Haaland in sterling form for Man City, look out, Gunners.)
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It’s Monday, and Gab Marcotti reacts to the biggest moments in the world of football.
Jump to: Are Newcastle for real? | Osimhen, Napoli on fire | Chelsea, Man United draw | Valverde lifts Real Madrid | Arsenal stumble | Bayern roll on | Dembele dazzles for Barca | Liverpool top-four worry? | Atletico’s huge win | Milan’s Brahim Diaz turning corner? | Haaland bullies Brighton | Reyna magic for Dortmund | More Inter drama | Union Berlin’s dream fading?
Win at Tottenham sends Newcastle into the top four … so are they for real?
There’s a stat that doesn’t steer you far wrong when it comes to the Premier League. For all the talk of competitive balance, there is such a thing as a “Big Six,” and they generally occupy the top spots. In fact, since 2005, on only one occasion has a club from outside those six broken into the top four spots: That was Leicester City in their fairy-tale title-winning season (2015-16).
Yet with Newcastle winning 2-1 away to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, Eddie Howe’s men are now fourth, and given the club’s deep-pocketed owners (the sovereign wealth fund of the state of Saudi Arabia), the prospect of more investment feels around the corner. Will the Big Six become a Big Seven?
Personally, I’d pump the brakes a little bit. For a start, sure, they’re fourth on 21 points, but Chelsea (also on 21) and Manchester United (on 20) have played one game fewer, so they could just as easily be sixth. And even though they were worthy winners away to Spurs (who had won every league home game to that point), it took two pretty hefty defensive blunders for them to score. If you’re into xG, even in this game where they had the upper hand, they lost the battle hands down: 1.91 to 0.78.
– Grealish’s ‘playing like Almiron’ diss backfires as Newcastle star is in great form
(That said, you can’t have it both ways: if you’re going to be unimpressed with their expected goals against Spurs, then presumably you need to be impressed by their overall xG goal difference, which is the third highest in the league, bested only by Arsenal and Manchester City.)
Newcastle’s owners promised gradual, organic growth rather than the sort of massive investment we saw at Paris Saint-Germain or Manchester City (or, before that, at Chelsea, after Roman Abramovich took over) and thus far it’s what they’ve delivered. Naturally, given the Saudi ownership, plenty reckon they could flip a switch and go big at any time, but I’m not sure they will. Or if they do, it’s necessarily a good idea, at least with Howe around.
One of Howe’s quirks is that during his time at Bournemouth he actually had more misses than hits when he did splash the cash (in relative, Bournemouth terms). Many of his bigger signings either didn’t move the needle much, or spent a long time in and out of the side before contributing. You’re tempted to conclude that he values chemistry so much that he tends to be conservative when integrating newcomers. Either that, or he’s wary about overrating players.
Beyond that, Newcastle have conceded the fewest goals in the league (10), and while it’s a slight over-performance relative to xG, it’s neither luck nor goalkeeper Nick Pope carrying the side (though he’s been very good). It’s more of a collective ethos that sees them prey upon opponent mistakes and be tough to break down, without being overly defensive. What they’ll be like when Isak and Allan Saint-Maximin (arguably his most gifted individual player) will go a long way towards determining where they finish.
As for Tottenham, that’s now back-to-back defeats and coming down to Earth with a thud. They weren’t terrible against Newcastle, just as they weren’t terrible when they lost at Manchester United in midweek, but there’s a certain predictability to them in the 3-5-2 formation, a necessary change given the unavailability of Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison. Even if they return and are productive, Conte needs to get this team to perform with a system other than the 3-4-3, if only because sooner or later opponents will figure them out.
Osimhen on fire as Napoli gut through a win at Roma
The fact that Napoli went on a winning tear while Victor Osimhen was injured — winning six games in a row and beating marquee names like Milan and Ajax, both on the road — is a testament to coach Luciano Spalletti, the performances he’s getting out of his squad and the “next man up” mentality. The fact that Osimhen is now back and not only does it feel as if he’s never been away, but has added a whole extra dimension to the side, is a proof of just how great he can be.
– Weekend Review: Are Napoli the most in-form team in Europe right now?
Away to Jose Mourinho’s Roma, this felt like a war of attrition, with the home side focusing on shutting down Napoli’s creative channels (which Mourinho did perfectly, using Lorenzo Pellegrini to mark/shadow Stanislav Lobotka) and looking for something on the counter. Spalletti, ever the chameleon, opted to tone down his high-octane attack (Napoli had averaged 3.5 goals a game over their previous seven matches) and match Roma’s approach.
It was the right call: Roma did not manage a single shot on target in the 90 minutes, and Osimhen scored the winner with a vicious wonder strike with 10 minutes to go. Napoli have now won 11 in a row in all competitions and show no signs of slowing down.
As for Roma, the defensive approach worked for long periods, but there was little to cheer at the other end. With Pellegrini chasing Lobotka around and Tammy Abraham having an off-day, Nicolo Zaniolo had to carry them virtually on his own. He battled until the end and had his moments, but unlike Osimhen he couldn’t conjure something out of nothing. The fact is that without Paulo Dybala, Roma lose a big chunk of their attacking potential if the opposition decides to stay tight.
Man United snatch last-ditch equalizer in mediocre game at Chelsea
Toni Kroos called him “Top 3” in the world. I’m not sure he was serious — I hope he wasn’t — but there is no question that Fede Valverde is “en fuego” right now.
After scoring just once in all competitions last season, he already has seven goals this year, several of them ballistic long-range masterpieces like the one we saw Saturday against Sevilla to seal the 3-1 win. (Technically, I preferred the second goal, a brilliant counterattack finished by Lucas Vazquez.)
Don’t let the two late goals fool you: Real Madrid were solidly in control throughout despite being without Karim Benzema (Rodrygo filled in and did fine … he’s just a very different player). Valverde may get the headlines, but Vinicius‘ growth over the past 18 months has been just as remarkable. Against Sevilla, he led the front line with savvy and intelligence beyond his 22 years. The kid is hitting full maturity — let that be a warning to others.
Arsenal held at Southampton, league lead down to just two points
It’s hard to judge where Bayern are at based on Saturday’s 2-0 win at Hoffenheim, simply because the opposition was so poor, almost as if they forgot they’re supposed to be a top-four side. Julian Nagelsmann’s defensive partnership of Matthijs De Ligt and Dayot Upamecano looked very good (not for the first time), but you’re tempted to handicap that as a result. No matter: Every game those two play together, the chemistry grows and that matters.
Once again, we saw Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting get on the scoresheet. He has four goals in his past three outings, five overall, and is scoring at roughly the same clip as Bayern’s previous center-forward, some guy named Robert Lewandowski.
Yes: Lies, damned lies and statistics and all that, but it’s good for Bayern to have another option, and one that’s motivated and productive. He’s probably still third choice up front behind Sadio Mane and Thomas Mueller (neither of whom, of course, is a traditional center-forward), but he showed he can still take a goal well, as his one-touch finish against Hoffenheim showed.
Dembele demolishes Bilbao as Barcelona get perfect prep for Bayern in midweek
Xavi had called for his team to bounce back after the heartbreaking draw against Inter in the Champions League (which leaves them teetering on the brink of elimination) and the Clasico pounding at the hands of Real Madrid. They responded with a convincing 3-0 win on Thursday against Villarreal, and an even more impressive 4-0 rout of Athletic Club — who, lest we forget, were in third place until recently — on Sunday.
– Dembele runs the show as Barcelona thrash Athletic Club
Ousmane Dembele stole the show, opening the scoring and assisting on each of Barcelona’s three other goals. His critics call him inconsistent and even his backers refer to him as a “player of moments,” but on nights like these he’s close to unplayable. You wonder if some of that had to do with Barcelona’s set-up on the night, with Pedri on the opposite flank rather than a traditional winger and Frenkie De Jong bolstering the midfield alongside Sergio Busquets. Or maybe, on a night like this, it wouldn’t have mattered: Dembele was that good and Bilbao were that bad.
Liverpool stumble at Nottingham Forest … when do you begin to worry about a top-four finish?
Maybe it was finally getting a resolution on his future after his move from Barcelona became permanent. Whatever the case, Antoine Griezmann has been rolling back the clock of late, with three goals in his past three games.
On Sunday, with a tricky away game against Betis, he stole the show, scoring direct from a corner kick and then adding a second through Rui Silva‘s legs. (It was not a good day at the office for the Betis keeper.) It was something of a minimalist display for Atleti — though they also got a big performance from Saul in midfield, which is good news, given his ups and downs — but it means they hang on to third place and get some much-needed momentum ahead of their big Champions League clash with Bayer Leverkusen.
Brahim Diaz powers Milan … is this when he turns the corner?
Milan put together a convincing 4-1 over Monza, and the highlights were dominated by Brahim Diaz, who scored two goals and provided plenty of creativity and excitement.
Once hailed as the next big thing in his Manchester City days — and still regarded highly enough that Real Madrid signed him as a teenager — Diaz is still 23 years old and on loan from Madrid. It’s his third campaign on loan with the Rossoneri, so you might be forgiven for forgetting that he’s still a Madrid player and could yet come good. While his time has been marked by inconsistency (and it’s no coincidence that Milan got themselves some insurance in the form of Charles De Ketelaere over the summer) his skill set still has scouts drooling.
Milan also got goals from Rafael Leao (not a surprise, and yes, they’re still working on his contract) and Divock Origi (more of a surprise), and the win was just the right boost ahead of a key Champions League clash with Dinamo Zagreb in midweek).
Haaland has no time for De Zerbi/Guardiola bromance as Man City roll past Brighton
We took another trip into the InterSphere, that wild and wacky virtual place that Inter supporters know all too well, where the unthinkable happens and where the team’s moniker “Pazza Inter” (“Crazy Inter”) originated (yes, it’s even in the club anthem).
Away to Fiorentina, they took a 2-0 lead and looked to be cruising, only to concede a penalty before the break (on a play in which Fede Dimarco could have been sent off) and the equaliser after the break (brilliant run from Jonathan Ikone). The good news is that this Inter seems mentally tougher than past versions and they nosed ahead on a disputed, but correct — just because the keeper touches the ball doesn’t mean he can’t also commit a foul — penalty.
Nursing a lead going into injury time, you expect a big club to see it through. But hey, this is Inter, remember, and they contrived to give up an equaliser to Luka Jovic, the former Madrid conundrum. (This was his ninth league goal since the summer of 2019: That’s right, he plays center-forward and has scored nine times in 3½ years).
And then, when it looked as if they had blundered away two points, they got a massive stroke of luck. Fiorentina defended horrendously on a counterattack in the fifth minute of injury time, the ball was squared across the box, and defender Lorenzo Venuti cleared it off the incoming Henrikh Mkhitaryan‘s leg and into the back of the net.
All told, the performance was solid from Inter who, despite still missing Marcelo Brozovic and Romelu Lukaku, are just three points from the top four. The manner in which it came, well, that was distinctly “Pazza Inter.”
Union still top, but fall at the lowest hurdle
OK, you didn’t need to be an analytics maven to know that unless Union radically improved their performances (or found an equally effective way of playing), they were bound to fall out of the top spot — or, as statheads say, “regress to the mean.” Clubs that rank where they rank (17 of 18 in non-penalty expected goals, 18 of 18 in passes inside the box, 16 of 18 in PPDA, 17 of 18 in possession, 15 of 18 in shots) and who overachieve xG by a mile (19 goals from 8.94xG) tend not to win titles.
That said, you wouldn’t have expected that stumble to come against Bochum, who were bottom of the Bundesliga and had lost eight of 10 games heading into the weekend. The 2-1 defeat still leaves them a point clear of Bayern at the top, so it’s worth enjoying while it lasts. Given their budget and resources, they’ve already won their Bundesliga title.
