This grand final is a dream match-up for the NRL: the battle of the golden west.
Penrith were knocked down and wobbling against South Sydney when they trailed 12-0, but they stayed cool and calm, and scored 32 points in 43 minutes to make it through to the decider.
It’s their third grand final in a row, so we should consider them as one of the great teams, like the Parramatta sides of the 1980s, the Broncos and Raiders of the 1990s and the Storm of the 2010s.
That said, I think the Eels have a red-hot chance. They have the style of attack that worries the Panthers: they have ball movement, offloads, short passing from their big men in the middle. When it sticks, and they get forward in the middle, they’re really tough to stop.
They’re predicting a wet week in Sydney, but it’s supposedly fining up for Sunday night. The dry pitch helps the Eels.
In these big games, the result is determined by the players who own the big moments.
I’ve been tipping Penrith all year, but something tells me Parramatta can cause an upset – if they can sustain pressure for long periods.
Parramatta have the game to upset the Panthers in the decider.Credit:Getty
Parra matters
There’s a lot to like about the Eels. They have momentum, confidence – because they’ve beaten Penrith twice this year – and stability in key positions for several years; which means they know each other’s combinations.
Front-rowers Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo are in career-best form. On the left, they have Dylan Brown, Shaun Lane and Maika Sivo. On the right, Isaiah Papali’i and Mitchell Moses.
It pretty much all sits on Moses and his kicking game. He needs a 10 out of 10 if they’re to win.
The key to beating Penrith is putting them under pressure and holding them there, which comes down to the quality of your kicks.
Parramatta’s wildcard has been Ryan Matterson off the bench. Being a former five-eighth helps; his passing game has been sensational. Think of his pass to Paulo against Canberra, then his pass to Campbell-Gillard to score against North Queensland.
Mitchell Moses’ kicking game is crucial for the Eels.Credit:Getty
He moves the ruck around with his passing to get his big men one-on-one with defenders, which creates quick play-the-balls or offloads.
There are a few negatives, though.
The Eels haven’t won a grand final since 1986. How does the pressure sit with them?
Matterson and Bailey Simonsson are the only Eels players to have played in a decider. A key to the grand final is how to handle the week.
Another negative is they are playing a truly champion team that fears nobody.
And, finally … who catches Cleary’s floating bombs?
But they can win.
They need to start well, as Souths did last weekend – but you need to sustain the pressure.
It’s important to put pressure on Cleary’s kicking. That job falls to Eels hooker Reed Mahoney.
Get on the back of Campbell-Gillard and Paulo, and play confidently with lots of ball movement.
A goal for Moses is two repeat sets in each half, two tries off kicks and try to get winger Waqa Blake one-on-one with Penrith opposite Brian To’o in the air.
The Eels also need to stop Penrith’s back three. Fullback Dylan Edwards ran for 287 metres against Souths, while To’o ran for 293 metres.
I’d also make it a stop-start game, kicking it into touch, slowing it down, quickening it up, changing the pace of the game.
If you do that, you don’t let Penrith fall into that rhythm that makes them so dangerous. Once they do that, they’re near impossible to beat.
If Parramatta can keep Penrith to 12 to 14 points, they’re certain to score more.
Keep an eye out for Paulo’s late offloads, Mahoney’s bullet pass from dummy half – and, hopefully, you won’t be seeing Moses headbutting Viliame Kikau’s knees.
Izack Tago and Brian To’o celebrate another grand final appearance.Credit:Getty
’Riff and tear
Penrith can win any way they need to: they can win flamboyantly, they can grind it out, they can win ugly.
They’ve had these combinations since they were teenagers, so they just know each other’s games.
Other positives: hooker Api Koroisau’s trickery around the ruck; Isaah Yeo’s ball-playing, which is similar to Matterson’s but better; and Dylan Edwards’ Forrest Gump-like work rate. Run Dylan, run.
As for James Fisher Harris and Moses Leota, they would intimidate Long Bay residents.
Then there’s a bloke called Nathan Cleary.
They’re fresh and they have no major injury worries, except for Taylan May.
They’ve been there before, love the big occasion, love the pressure.
About the only negative that I can see is that the Eels don’t fear them having beaten them twice this year.
Some believe that only playing two games in five weeks is a negative, but I see that as a positive with this team.
One of the big keys to victory is nullifying Eels back-rower Shaun Lane. He’s been a real focus for the Eels on the left. It will be on Cleary to stop him because that’s where he defends.
They need to unsettle Mitchell Moses, and that job falls to Jarome Luai.
Stay cool and clam, which they usually do, play their game, play their style. Just be Penrith.
JOEY’S TIP: Penrith by 6.
FIRST TRY-SCORER: Clint Gutherson.
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDALLIST: Dylan Edwards
Millie Boyle has been a powerhouse as the Knights have reached their first grand final.Credit:Getty
Boogie Knights
I never thought I’d be so invested watching the Knights’ NRLW side play this season – but I have been. Now they meet the Eels in the grand final.
I was talking to former Bulldogs and Eels player Jimmy Dymock recently, and he said the women’s game reminds him of how rugby league was played in the 1990s: open, fast and unaffected by professionalism; ripping in.
It’s become a huge growth area for the game and the stars are standing up. I have no doubt they will be big names in their own right.
Newcastle’s Millie Boyle has been outstanding. The club’s management raves about her leadership skills. Jesse Southwell is the new face of the women’s game.
You’re seeing some real athletes playing. The decider will be a great match.
Watch the NRL grand final exclusive, live and free on Channel 9 and 9Now.
Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.
