And then there were 12.
The last fortnight of an intriguing AFL season will decide the composition of the top eight, with half of the spots still up for grabs, although Carlton would find it hard to drop out from here.
Some key round 23 match-ups will not only help figure out who makes the finals, but will go a long way to deciding which team finishes in the top two alongside Collingwood.
1. Collingwood (17-4, 68 points, 126.7%)
The Magpies’ hard-fought triumph over Geelong puts them on the verge of securing their first minor premiership in 12 years. Captain Darcy Moore’s hamstring setback – having already lost Nick Daicos a week earlier – soured the result somewhat, but they have a comfortable buffer atop the ladder and only the most improbable scenario would see them tumble from the top two. The Lions are one team that could pinch top place off them if results go their way, but a Collingwood win against them on Friday night would end that possibility.
RUN HOME
R23: v Brisbane Lions (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Essendon (MCG)
2. Brisbane Lions (15-6, 60 points, 123.2%)
Survived conceding the last six scoring shots to score a valuable six-point victory over Adelaide that elevated them back to second. Collingwood have almost sewn up top place, so most of the interest now is in who of the Lions, Melbourne or Port Adelaide will finish second and earn a home qualifying final. Brisbane face the Pies in Melbourne on Friday night, in a match that could decide their top-two fortunes. They will be heavily favoured to account for the Saints in the final round.
Lachie Neale has again put together a standout season for the Lions.Credit: AFL Photos
RUN HOME
R23: v Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v St Kilda (Gabba)
3. Port Adelaide (15-6, 60 points, 111%)
Sunday’s 51-point thumping of the Giants ended the Power’s four-match losing skid and reignited their top-two hopes. They will be favoured to win both of their next two games – although the Dockers could offer a stiff test – and look a decent chance of leapfrogging the Lions, who have a difficult road trip against Collingwood to come. Aliir Aliir, Miles Bergman and Jeremy Finlayson were among the inclusions for the GWS game, but spearhead Charlie Dixon will not play for the rest of the home and away season.
RUN HOME
R23: v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R24: v Richmond (Adelaide Oval)
4. Melbourne (14-7, 56 points, 124%)
A score review controversy in the final minute of Saturday night’s four-point loss to Carlton could prove very costly for the Demons, whose five-match winning streak was snapped. They are in a battle for second spot and now almost certainly need to win their last two games of the season to have any chance of a home qualifying final. Missing out on that means they will likely have to travel to Brisbane or Adelaide for their first final, unless Collingwood stumble. The Hawks could be tricky on Sunday, but the Swans definitely will be in Sydney.
RUN HOME
R23: v Hawthorn (MCG)
R24: v Sydney Swans (SCG)
Patrick Cripps and the Blues are in imposing form just weeks out from the finals.Credit: AFL Photos
5. Carlton (12-8-1, 50 points, 116.8%)
What more can you say about Michael Voss’ Blues? They are becoming the fairytale story of the season after looking dead and buried when they slumped into the bottom four at the end of round 13. Carlton have won eight matches since, including defeating Melbourne in a thriller on Saturday night, after similarly impressive victories over Port Adelaide and Collingwood. Most importantly, the Blues will play finals after a decade-long absence, barring a disaster – and no team will want to play them in September.
RUN HOME
R23: v Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: v GWS (Marvel Stadium)
6. St Kilda (12-9, 48 points, 107%)
The Saints can almost touch a finals berth after a six-goal thrashing of an insipid Richmond. That was their 12th win of the season in Ross Lyon’s second stint in charge, and a win over the Cats on Saturday night will seal their spot. St Kilda’s percentage is solid, but back-to-back defeats to end the season would probably see them on the outside looking in. With the trip to Queensland in round 24 looking a tough assignment, Lyon’s men will be desperate to remove any doubt next weekend.
RUN HOME
R23: v Geelong (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
7. Sydney (11-9-1, 46 points, 112.1%)
They made hard work of it, but the Swans’ 24-point win over Gold Coast on Saturday means they are within touching distance of an unlikely finals berth, after being in the bottom four through 15 rounds. Saturday night’s clash with the Crows in Adelaide has huge finals ramifications for each side. A Sydney loss would leave them needing to beat the Demons in the last round to qualify for September – and would keep the Crows’ hopes alive. The Swans have six wins and a draw from their past eight matches.
RUN HOME
R23: v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v Melbourne (SCG)
8. Western Bulldogs (11-10, 44 points, 108.5%)
The Dogs continued their rollercoaster season with a three-point defeat to a Hawthorn side posing problems for almost everyone despite being well-entrenched in the bottom four. The loss makes things interesting for them and the other teams still fighting to get in, but they probably need only to beat the last-placed Eagles – in Melbourne – to ensure they play finals. The Cats will likely have more on the line in their round 24 clash, but the Bulldogs won’t want to finish eighth and face Carlton in an elimination final.
RUN HOME
R23: v West Coast (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
Nic Martin celebrates a goal against North Melbourne.Credit: Getty Images
9. Essendon (11-10, 44 points, 99.1%)
The Bombers have beaten cellar-dwellers North Melbourne and West Coast by a combined 10 points in the past fortnight to keep their finals chances alive. However, that form line does not offer much hope of them upsetting either, or both, of the Giants or Magpies in the last two rounds. A win in one of those contests could be enough for Essendon to sneak in, but their modest percentage – after failing to bolster it against the Roos and Eagles – means they probably need to claim both.
RUN HOME
R23: v GWS (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Collingwood (MCG)
10. GWS (11-10, 44 points, 98.6%)
With a finals spot up for grabs, the Giants turned in one of their most uncompetitive showings of the season, in a lopsided loss to Port Adelaide that cost them three percentage points. They should be too good for the Bombers in the comforts of Giants Stadium, but almost certainly having to beat the red-hot Blues to book a September spot looks a seriously big ask. They did a fantastic job to resurrect their season with seven consecutive wins, but they seem poised to just miss out.
RUN HOME
R23: v Essendon (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
11. Geelong (10-10-1, 42 points, 117.5%)
The reigning premiers let slip a 22-point first quarter lead to suffer a heart-breaking loss to Collingwood on Friday night. It is now or never for the Cats, who must beat both the Saints and Bulldogs to make the finals, which is by no means a certainty on what we have seen from Chris Scott’s side this season. Neither Tom Hawkins nor Cam Guthrie played against the Pies, while Mark Blicavs and Jack Henry were also sidelined, and Gary Rohan was subbed out with an adductor issue.
Darcy Moore and Jeremy Cameron in conversation after the Magpies’ win over the Cats.Credit: AFL Photos
RUN HOME
R23: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium)
12. Adelaide (10-11, 40 points, 115.8%)
The Crows went oh, so close to a shock road victory over the Lions, but the narrow loss – which drops them to a 1-8 record away from Adelaide Oval in 2023 – might prove costly in a couple of weeks’ time. All they can do from here is win their final two matches and hope other results go their way, but it helps plenty that they have a strong percentage. Matthew Nicks’ men are playing well enough to defeat finals rivals Sydney at home on Saturday night, and should be hot favourites to account for the Eagles in Perth.
RUN HOME
R23: v Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v West Coast (Optus Stadium)
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