Leading sectionals analyst Vince Accardi has honed in on six horses for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, including one at a big price.
Favourite Deauville Legend, unlucky Caulfield Cup runner Montefilia and $41 shot Young Werther have all been ranked as A+ contenders for this year’s Melbourne Cup by Accardi, whose business Daily Sectionals specialises in analysing horse racing sectional data.
Accardi believes Young Werther improved off his Turnbull Stakes placing into the Cox Plate, where he was beaten just over three lengths by winner Anamoe, and has “excellent winning claims at a terrific value price” for Tuesday’s Cup.
Montefilia is one of Vince Accardi’s top three players in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.Credit:Brett Holburt, Getty Images
Trainer Danny O’Brien won the Cup in 2019 with Vow And Declare, and the horse has run second in an ATC Derby, giving an indication that he would appreciate Tuesday’s 3200-metre challenge.
Montefilia also profiles perfectly, according to Accardi, whose luckless run in the Caulfield Cup caught a lot of attention.
Both Montefilia and Young Werther have evidence in their form that they will appreciate a soft or heavy track, and Accardi said it was the one query on favourite Deavuille Legend, whom punters have clearly marked as the one to beat.
“They’re the three horses we’re targeting,” Accardi said of Deauville Legend, Montefilia and Young Werther.
“But Deauville Legend is unknown if we happen to be on a very soft track. This horse could be even more dynamic or regress backwards, so that’s the caveat on him.”
If the track improves towards a soft 5, Accardi said he could certainly elevate Gold Trip, Duais and Without A Fight, who have the class to win Tuesday’s race.
“If the track races like it was on Saturday, then [Gold Trip] has to be given consideration,” Accardi said.
“But we’re of the view if this track does end up in the soft 7, heavy 8 range, that’ll be a negative for the horse.
Gold Trip is among Vince Accardi’s top six Melbourne Cup hopes.Credit:Vince Caligiuri
“The other runner, Duais, is profiling slightly behind the others in terms of where she is at the moment, but there is this possibility that this horse could leap right to the very top. When I look at her last-start performance against particularly Montefilia, her run was every bit as good as that, and this horse is hitting her peak at the right time.
“We have the view Duais will launch and be really dynamic [in the Cup], but if it got in the heavy 8, we think that’d be a negative for the horse.”
The biggest market mover since the barrier draw on Saturday evening was Realm Of Flowers, who had been $15 into $9.50 with Ladbrokes. The corporate bookmaker said 10 per cent of its hold was on the Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained mare, who will carry just 50 kilograms on Tuesday.
But Accardi said he couldn’t find a reason to mark her anywhere near single figures.
“Our challenge with Realm Of Flowers is, while the horse has got capability, the reason we haven’t marked her as one of our winning chances is she has to make a big elevation,” he said.
“If we got into super heavy ground, maybe that would be the way she could get there, but if the track stays something similar to Saturday, it’s a big leap, it’s a tall order. We couldn’t find one reason, other than if it was an absolute mud-track, that this horse would be ready.”
Outside of his top-six, Accardi said the “two sleepers” were Interpretation, who has had just four starts in Australia, and Geelong Cup winner Emissary, who produced a new personal best at his latest, while Accardi marked Knights Order as the best wet tracker in the field.
Accardi’s in-depth analysis can be found at dailysectionals.com.au.
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