As Alex de Minaur assessed his steady progression towards the top 10 player this year, the Australian highlighted a facet he believed critical to his success. Incremental improvement.
But the 6-3 6-0 whitewash the world No.12 experienced at the hands of Italian Jannik Sinner in the Davis Cup final in Spain on Sunday to end a promising season underscores a fundamental challenge facing de Minaur.
The 24-year-old needs to take another massive step forward if he is to become a legitimate contender for grand slam titles in 2024 and beyond given the class of the world’s best.
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With Novak Djokovic recording arguably his best ever season and Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinners ascending stars, there is a major gulf between the very best and the rest of the tour.
And de Minaur, for all his dedication, discipline and determination to bridge the gap, sits among a distant group of pursuers left trailing in the wake of the talent of those at the top.
Another quality Davis Cup campaign by the de Minaur-led Australians ended in agony when they were outpointed in the final for the second season in succession.
A year ago Canada was their conqueror when claiming a historic first Davis Cup for the nation. The Sinner-inspired Italians ended a 47-year drought to defeat Australia 2-0.
Alexei Popyrin, who sits at a career of 40, was devastated at his failure to convert eight break points in the deciding set when beaten 7-5 2-6 6-4 by Matteo Arnaldi in the first rubber.
The task confronting de Minaur as he shaped to keep Australia alive in the final always shaped as exceptionally difficult given the previous dominance Sinner held over him.
Australian captain Lleyton Hewitt predicted leading into the Davis Cup Finals it was going to take “one hell of a player to beat him this week”.
Sinner is exactly that. Sublime. Sensational. Superb. He is a superlative performer.
On a slick indoor hardcourt, the Sydneysider attempted to rush the world No.4, who had saved three match points a day earlier to topple Novak Djokovic in a stunning semi-final clinched by Italy 2-1.
The Australan took returns early and rushed the net where appropriate in a bid to unbalance a rival whose ball-striking over the past fortnight has been at a staggeringly high level.
But once Sinner, who was an outstanding skier as a youth, found his rhythm and balance, the rubber went the way of their previous five encounters as the Italian pounded winner after winner.
Despite the cajoling of Hewitt as the Davis Cup slipped away, de Minaur became increasingly dejected as Sinner continued to sizzle.
Although vanquished, de Minaur remains defiant in his belief Australia is close to ending a drought in the iconic competition that dates back to a success in Melbourne in 2003.
“There has not been another nation that’s gone back to back (in finals) in the last two years, so we are showing a pretty good effort collectively,” he told reporters in Spain.
“We are very, very close. It stinks like hell. (But) we will be back. We will get this. We’ve got a very, very strong future ahead of us.”
FROM NEXT GEN FINALISTS TO DAVIS CUP COMBATANTS, SINNER HOLDS THE UPPER-HAND
In the four years since Sinner thrashed de Minaur in the final of the ATP Tour Next Gen Championships, the pair have risen the rankings but little has changed in the head-to-head battles.
The physical contrasts between the pair are not startling, though the taller and heavier Sinner boasts considerably more firepower on his serve and also his groundstrokes.
It is not to say de Minaur, who best result in a grand slam is a quarterfinal appearance at the US Open in 2020, cannot enjoy a major breakthrough at some stage in the future. Just as one swallow does not make a summer, nor should a solitary result write off a season.
By and large, it has been an excellent one for the Australian, who finished the season with 46 wins from 72 singles matches, which takes his career record beyond 200 tour victories.
Highlights include a win over Rafael Nadal in the United Cup, the Mexican Open title, a maiden Masters finals appearance in Canada and also a run to the decider at Queens, where Alcaraz proved too strong.
In reaching 11 quarterfinals, de Minaur has halved his ranking from 24 at the start of the season to 12 and claimed six triumphs from 15 outings against top 10-ranked players.
He is on track to become the first Australian man since Lleyton Hewitt to sit inside the top 10, though Nick Kyrgios would have cracked the mark had Wimbledon not been stripped of ranking points for its stand banning Russian and Belarusian players in 2022.
But it appears the planets will need to align in terms of draws at grand slam level for a breakthrough to occur given the current hold Sinner, in particular, but also Djokovic, Alcaraz and, in their two most recent outings, Daniil Medvedev have on him.
One thing is certain. de Minaur will give his all to strengthen his game, body and mind in the off-season. Securing a top 10 ranking is something to be celebrated and is within reach.
His first outing for 2024 will be to represent Australia in the United Cup in Perth in just over a month.
But a break is required. de Minaur was clearly fatigued at the US Open, where he hit the wall during a gruelling encounter in energy-sapping conditions against Medvedev in the fourth round. The end of the season has also been physically taxing.
As Hewitt said leading into the ATP Finals when assessing the deeds of de Minaur, the off-season appears shorter than ever before despite moves to alter the length of the year.
“That is the crazy thing. Everyone has been talking, for the last 15 to 20 years, about trying to make the season shorter, yet it feels like it is longer than ever,” he told foxsports.com.au
IS SINNER THE NEXT MAJOR CHAMPION IN WAITING?
Coached by Australian Darren Cahill, who has steered Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi and Simona Halep to the world’s top ranking, Sinner appears on a similar trajectory.
There is an impatience in sport when it comes to allowing emerging talents the time to take the steps towards becoming a grand slam champion. But Sinner is tracking nicely.
After claiming his first Masters series title when too good for de Minaur in the Canadian Open in August, the 22-year-old has beaten nine top-10 ranked players since September.
He edged Djokovic in a thrilling round-robin encounter at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, only for the Serbian master to exact his revenge in the final.
But Sinner’s ability to save three match points in succession against Djokovic in Spain in the semi-final, which kept Italy’s hopes alive, is testament to his growing mental strength, which could make him a lethal proposition given the excellence of his ball-striking.
There is no tougher task in tennis than defeating Djokovic, yet Sinner has managed it twice in the last fortnight.
The conclusion of the year provides much to think about considering next season and an Australian summer beginning in just over five weeks for Sinner, whose best effort in a major was his semi-final appearance at Wimbledon in July.
Djokovic parlayed the confidence gleaned from leading Serbia to its maiden Davis Cup success in 2010 into well over a decade of dominance at grand slam level.
With the master coach Cahill in his corner and a greater assuredness about his own talent, the Italian will be at relatively short odds of becoming a grand slam champion in 2024.
