AFL Run Home after Round 21: Blues on brink of September return, EVERY week one final changes

Carlton is in the box seat to return to the finals after a decade in the wilderness, while more top-four shocks have seen every projected week one final change.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How do the Run Home projections work?

To predict the ladder, we tip the likely winner of each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams each have a 50 per cent chance of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round. It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality).

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Port Adelaide at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne at the Gabba

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (17.8 projected wins)

2. Brisbane Lions (15.95)

3. Melbourne (15.8)

4. Port Adelaide (15.8)

5. Carlton (13.1)

6. Western Bulldogs (13)

7. GWS Giants (12.35)

8. Geelong (12.2)

9. Sydney Swans (12.05)

10. St Kilda (11.9)

11. Adelaide Crows (11.8)

12. Essendon (11.45)

13. Richmond (11.25)

14. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)

15. Fremantle (9.9)

16. Hawthorn (7.05)

17. North Melbourne (2.75)

18. West Coast Eagles (2.25)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

KEY TALKING POINTS

– Collingwood should still finish first, though if they lose to the Cats next week there’s at least a chance of being caught;

– A percentage race between Melbourne and Brisbane looms for second spot and the home qualifying final, but both have tricky games left on their fixture, so Port Adelaide (who now sit fourth, but with an easier fixture) has at least some chance of getting back into position;

– Carlton is clearly best-positioned to make the finals out of the chasing pack, likely needing just one more win to secure a spot;

– The Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS, Geelong and Sydney can likely make it with two wins from their last three games… though the five of them are fighting for just three spots behind the Blues, of course. It’s very unlikely all of them win 2+ more games anyway, and the Bulldogs (with the Hawks and Eagles to come) are in the strongest position by far;

– Adelaide might be able to sneak in with two more wins if everything goes right, but more likely need to win all three, as do Essendon, Richmond and Gold Coast.

1. COLLINGWOOD (16-4, 128%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Geelong at the MCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Essendon at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-hardest

Obviously losing to Hawthorn isn’t ideal, and the Magpies aren’t at their absolute best right now. But realistically, in terms of the ladder, their situation hasn’t really changed. There’s a small chance they can be caught – the most likely scenario would be losing to the Cats and then the Lions, thus being caught by the latter – but two games clear with three to play is still a pretty good spot to be in. If they somehow collapse, at that point there would be bigger things for them to worry about than whether they finish first, anyway.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.8 wins, finishing 1st

2. MELBOURNE (14-6, 125.3%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-easiest

They almost joined their top four compatriots in defeat, but the Demons steadied to take care of business and catapult themselves into the top two. Win out, and while it may come down to percentage, you suspect Simon Goodwin’s men will be hosting a qualifying final. Even with a slip-up, they’re a chance, thanks to their good recent work. It’s going to be a tight race but Melbourne is the only flag contender really finding form at the moment – as the ABC’s Corbin Middlemas pointed out, in the last six years, the eventual premier hasn’t lost more than two games from Round 17 onwards. The Magpies and Lions have already lost twice (and play each other in Round 23), while the Power have lost four times.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.8 wins, finishing 3rd

3. BRISBANE LIONS (14-6, 124.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

The top two race is well and truly on, with the Lions and Demons clearly in better form than the Power and having a huge percentage advantage, but the Power having the easiest fixture of the trio. Given how dominant Brisbane is at the Gabba, it probably comes down to the Collingwood game – win it, and a home qualifying final is well and truly available. Lose it, and there’s still every chance the others slip up, but they’ll need the help. Either way with the Magpies looking shaky, and expected to be without Nick Daicos for their qualifying final, even finishing fourth doesn’t look as terrifying right now.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.95 wins, finishing 2nd

4. PORT ADELAIDE (14-6, 108.5%)

Remaining games

Round 22: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-easiest

You can be optimistic about the Power, given how close they came to knocking off Geelong in Geelong despite their injuries, and pessimistic, given they’re outside of the top 3 for the first time since Round 9, at the same time. They’re clearly a bit out of form, yet we can’t count them out of the race for second and a home qualifying final just yet. Port’s three remaining games aren’t easy, but all games where they should be favoured. In contrast, the Lions still have to face Collingwood away, while the Demons get a tricky road trip to Sydney in the final round, plus an improved Carlton next week. There’s a world where the Power get back on their feet, win their next three, and the other two stumble – resulting in an Adelaide Oval qualifying final. But in three weeks they’ve gone from two games clear to needing help.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.8 wins, finishing 4th

5. CARLTON (11-8-1, 117.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-hardest

They’re almost there, after coming back to take down St Kilda on Sunday afternoon. One more win is likely enough for the Blues to play finals – though Geelong and Sydney also winning means the possibility remains they’d get squeezed out on 12 and a half wins – and two will definitely do it. A home elimination final is on the cards too, and with the possibility of four Melbourne-based teams earning week one hosting rights, they’d want to finish as high as possible so they can pack out the MCG instead of getting shifted to Marvel.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.1 wins, finishing 5th

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-9, 109%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-easiest

They should be safe. The Bulldogs were mightily impressive in their Friday night win over Richmond, and as long as they take care of business over the next two weeks against two of the bottom three, Luke Beveridge’s men will play finals – 13 wins will be enough. Of course, Hawthorn have been inconsistently scary all season, so there’s every chance they pull the upset, especially in Tasmania. There’s a lot of recent history in this fixture; the Dogs won down there in the final round last year, which allowed them to pass Carlton for eighth, but lost it in Round 22, 2021 as they fell out of the top four completely. West Coast’s friskiness against Essendon aside, we think it’s safe to say if the Bulldogs beat the Hawks, they’re in.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13 wins, finishing 6th

7. ST KILDA (11-9, 104.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-hardest

They’ll have to hope that wasn’t the best chance they’re going to get. The Saints coughed up a healthy lead to lose to Carlton, and while Richmond doesn’t exactly look too scary next week, we now have Ross Lyon’s men projected to miss the top eight. They’re almost certainly going to need to win two of their last three, and we’d suggest the games just get harder every week now. There’s a world where they sneak in with 12 wins, but they would need Sydney and Adelaide to lose twice too, plus either staying ahead of GWS or Geelong losing twice (ideally including a loss to the Saints).

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.9 wins, finishing 10th

8. GWS GIANTS (11-9, 101.6%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Essendon at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-hardest

Arguably unfortunate to see their seven-game losing streak snapped against a very accurate Sydney side, this was always the problem with the Giants’ finals charge – their draw remained tough, and one slip-up would put them in danger. They’ll still make the eight if they win two of their last three, but that’s not a simple proposition, even with next week’s opponent Port Adelaide now the walking wounded. Win just one of their next three, and GWS will be in real strife, hoping the Cats, Blues and Swans fall over – and that the Crows (with their much better percentage) can’t catch them.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.35 wins, finishing 7th

9. GEELONG (10-9-1, 119.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-hardest

They’re alive. The Cats had to beat at least one of the Power or Magpies, and took advantage of Port’s horrific week of injuries on Saturday night – admittedly with a few of their own, so it’s not like everything was going Geelong’s way. Win two of their last three, and Geelong probably plays finals, with their percentage keeping them in a strong position – they’re a very substantial amount ahead of Sydney. The Bulldogs might not be catchable, but that Round 23 game against the Saints now shapes as win-and-in, while the Cats are also hoping to catch the Giants (who have a tough three weeks as well). That’s the power of Saturday night’s win; more things can go wrong, in terms of their results and other results, while still seeing Geelong into September.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 8th

10. SYDNEY SWANS (10-9-1, 111.3%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at the SCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Melbourne at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-hardest

Last year, the Swans won seven consecutive games to surge into the finals. This year, seven consecutive wins would get them there, and make them a very scary threat from the bottom half of the eight. In fact after beating GWS – an absolutely critical result for their season – they might even be able to afford a slip-up. 12 and a half wins is likely, but not certain, to be enough; it may come down to percentage with Geelong. So if they beat the Suns, they’re in a very solid position, even with a very tough final fortnight to come. Right now we have the Swans just missing September, but it’s incredibly close; they’re probably trying to sneak in over the Giants and Saints.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.05 wins, finishing 9th

11. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-10, 117.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

A comfortable win over Gold Coast at home keeps the Crows in the hunt, and they have the best chance of any team outside the top 10 of playing finals. It wasn’t all great this weekend for Adelaide; they’re only a game back of GWS, who suddenly look catchable, but wins for Geelong and Sydney weren’t what they wanted to see. It makes a 12-win Adelaide side that much less likely to play finals (since the Cats and Swans have realistic paths to 12 and a half wins), which in turn means they probably have to win out, including beating Brisbane at the Gabba. That’s not impossible, based on their performance against the Lions earlier this year, but it’s obviously a tricky road trip. And we don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Crows haven’t been terrific playing away this season?

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.8 wins, finishing 11th

12. ESSENDON (10-10, 98.5%)

Remaining games

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-easiest

Well, they won, but that’s pretty much the only good thing you can say about Essendon this weekend. Thankfully that’s the main thing that matters, and if they win all three of their remaining games, they’re probably playing finals. Can they do that? We’d be surprised, even with the Giants and Magpies losing this weekend. And any chance of making the eight with 12 wins has pretty much evaporated, since against one of the worst teams in the last 50 years of the V/AFL, they were able to build their percentage by… a massive 0.1%. So they’d be stuck behind the Crows if they reach 12 wins, and probably behind any of the Bulldogs, Saints or Giants too.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.45 wins, finishing 12th

13. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest

The Tigers are pretty much done, needing to win all three of their remaining games to have any realistic shot of making the eight. That’s already unlikely. But even with 12 and a half wins, with their percentage, they’re in trouble. The teams they need to pass – the others with a draw, like Geelong and Sydney – actually won on the weekend, effectively building a two-game lead. In a realistic best-case scenario, Richmond goes into Round 24 needing to beat Port Adelaide away with other results going their way to make the eight. And even getting to that point won’t be easy.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.25 wins, finishing 13th

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-11, 93.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Carlton at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-easiest

Once again, the Suns had an opportunity to win and genuinely sit in the finals mix… and once again, they were well beaten. We’re not comfortable completely eliminating them and putting them in the below category, but they’re done. They would need to win out just to reach 12 wins, and with their percentage, they’d need a boatload of results to go their way to sneak into September.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.55 wins, finishing 14th

NOT PLAYING FINALS

15. FREMANTLE (8-12, 89.3%)

Remaining games

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.9 wins, finishing 15th

16. HAWTHORN (6-14, 80.9%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Fremantle at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 7.05 wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-18, 67.6%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.75 wins, finishing 17th

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-18, 52.1%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.25 wins, finishing 18th