AFL Run Home after Round 20: How staggering round of upsets swung finals race as Blues, Dees surge

One of the strangest rounds in memory has seen the top-two race open up, while two surging sides look finals-bound – but the premiers might be out.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How do the Run Home projections work?

To predict the ladder, we tip the likely winner of each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams each have a 50 per cent chance of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round. It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality).

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): GWS Giants vs St Kilda at Giants Stadium

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (18.5 projected wins)

2. Port Adelaide (16.3)

3. Brisbane Lions (15.5)

4. Melbourne (15.5)

5. GWS Giants (12.85)

6. Carlton (12.75)

7. Western Bulldogs (12.55)

8. St Kilda (12.25)

9. Geelong (11.75)

10. Richmond (11.7)

11. Sydney Swans (11.55)

12. Adelaide Crows (11.45)

13. Essendon (11.4)

14. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)

15. Fremantle (10.35)

16. Hawthorn (6.35)

17. North Melbourne (3)

18. West Coast Eagles (2.3)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

KEY TALKING POINTS

– Collingwood’s loss barely even mattered, and if anything they’re actually closer to the minor premiership because of Brisbane and Port Adelaide’s losses;

– Melbourne is surging into the top-two race thanks to the Power and Lions’ shock defeats, and while Port have the edge just because they’re a win ahead, any of the three could finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th;

– GWS and Carlton seem to be the only teams who actually want to make the bottom half of the eight, and are both two wins away from clinching their spots… as are St Kilda, despite their lack of form over the last few months;

– The Bulldogs are still favoured to hold onto their spot in the eight as they’re favourites in their next three games, with the Hawks and Eagles still to come, but if they lose to the Tigers next week they’re in some trouble;

– Geelong was the big loser of the weekend, failing to win what looked like their easiest remaining game, and now being stuck along with Richmond, Sydney and Adelaide in needing to win at least three of their last four to make it;

– Essendon is on the brink of elimination, probably needing to win all four of their remaining games, while Gold Coast has staved off elimination for a week but still looks done.

– Broadly speaking we think the top four plus GWS, Carlton and the Bulldogs should make it (with the Dogs being the shakiest), and it’s about whether St Kilda slips up and who can take their spot if they do.

1. COLLINGWOOD (16-3, 132.7%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at the MCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Essendon at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-hardest

After Friday night, the Magpies might’ve felt just a teensy bit nervous about the minor premiership. But then Brisbane and Port Adelaide lost, and so they’re still three games clear, now with just four rounds left. Nothing changed! If anything, they’re more likely to finish on top! And we’re not even that worried about their actual loss to Carlton, because after a season where they’ve been a goalkicking outlier – No.1 for accuracy, No.18 for accuracy against – things swung the other way, and a large part of the reason they lost was their goalkicking. Which, as they just showed, is unpredictable.

Fox Footy’s projection: 18.5 wins, finishing 1st

2. PORT ADELAIDE (14-5, 109.8%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-easiest

You could argue, even though the Power look to be in greater danger of sliding out of second now than they were a week ago, they’re actually in a better spot – thanks to Brisbane’s shock loss to Gold Coast. Port were favoured in the Showdown, after all, but not by as much as the Lions were favoured in the Pineapple Grapple. But the problem is they’ve now got two teams with a much better percentage on their tail, with Melbourne now just a game back. Fremantle just showed Geelong is gettable at Kardinia Park, so next week’s game is a bit less scary; but the Power still can’t afford to slip up, and none of their remaining games are easy. Remember though – Brisbane still has Collingwood away; Melbourne has a resurgent Carlton plus Sydney away. We think the most likely scenario is Port, Brisbane and Melbourne all lose once more, and the Power stay second… but they can now drop further, too. Reasonably big month of footy coming up.

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.3 wins, finishing 2nd

3. BRISBANE LIONS (13-6, 125.2%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-hardest

This was their chance. Port Adelaide were well-beaten in the Showdown… yet just a few hours earlier, the Lions were even more disappointing in their loss to Gold Coast. What seemed like an easy, banked win now looms as a huge missed opportunity. The Lions can still finish second, but they’re at serious risk of falling down to fourth now, especially if Melbourne finds form and Port Adelaide just holds its nerve. At the very least, seeding seems likely to come down to percentage between them and the Demons… and the Demons still have games against the Kangaroos and Hawks. So even a 4-0 finish may not give Brisbane a home qualifying final from here.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.5 wins, finishing 3rd (tiebreak broken by percentage)

4. MELBOURNE (13-6, 124.3%)

Remaining games

Round 21: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fourth-easiest

What a dream weekend for the Demons, who suddenly find themselves up in the top two race, thanks to Brisbane and Port Adelaide’s upset losses. They’re still not the favourites for second, because Carlton and Sydney away are very tricky fixtures, but they should bank wins against the Kangaroos and Hawks – and, importantly for their seeding battle with Brisbane, build percentage. At the very least a home qualifying final is now a real possibility, and with it the potential of avoiding Collingwood until the Grand Final… and avoiding an interstate final altogether.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.5 wins, finishing 4th (tiebreak broken by percentage)

5. ST KILDA (11-8, 106.5%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

Look – they still need to win another game, and maybe two. The latter still seems very difficult. And it still feels very weird projecting them into our top eight. But the Saints are giving themselves the best opportunity possible. There is a difference between whether a team deserves to play finals, and whether they’re one of the best eight teams. We’re comfortable saying right now, the Saints aren’t the latter, but if they win enough games they 100% deserve to be there. And if they make it from here, they’ll have won their way in by beating fellow contenders. Especially if they win twice more, which we suspect they’ll need, because surely someone else gets to 12 wins with a better percentage than them and/or a draw in hand. But maybe they don’t, and maybe the Saints get a shot in September… and from there it’s just one game at a time.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.25 wins, finishing 8th

6. GWS GIANTS (11-8, 102.4%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Essendon at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-hardest

Will they ever lose again?! Even with a tough last four weeks to come, the Giants sure look finals-bound, especially with many of their direct ladder rivals stumbling over the course of this past weekend. Next week’s Sydney Derby is the biggest since the 2021 elimination final thriller, and GWS can probably repeat that day and end the Swans’ season with a victory, while almost securing their spot in September. Two more wins will be enough – the Sydney and Essendon games look the most likely – and even one win could be enough if everything goes right. At worst they should head into Round 24 with the chance to win their way into September, which is a huge accomplishment for a side that was in the bottom four eight rounds ago, and finished 16th last year.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.85 wins, finishing 5th

7. CARLTON (10-8-1, 116.5%)

Remaining games

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Seventh-hardest

You could almost argue Carlton is closer to playing finals now than they were late in the third quarter against Collingwood last year. (Almost.) A near-perfect weekend of results has the Blues suddenly eyeing off not just an elimination final, but a home one. If they win two of their last four, they almost certainly make it, and while the Suns just showed they can beat a top-four side at home, you’d still back Michael Voss’ red-hot side to beat both St Kilda and Gold Coast. And it’s not like they can’t beat Melbourne and/or GWS either. At worst Carlton should go into Round 24 knowing if they win, they’re in. At best they could save their fans a lot of heartache and lock up a spot before the final round.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 6th

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-9, 105.7%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

A disappointing and frustrating loss? No doubt. But it was a loss the Bulldogs could just about afford, as they’re still in the eight and still predicted to make it. Those two games against the Hawks and Eagles should get them to 12 wins, and if teams keep falling over around them, that could even be enough. But otherwise they just need to beat one of Richmond or Geelong – and while the former is more likely, Fremantle just showed the latter is doable. Still you’d rather just get the wins on the board ASAP, so it’s a relatively simple equation. Lose to the Tigers and the Dogs will be in jeopardy; win and they’re almost safe.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.55 wins, finishing 7th

9. GEELONG (9-9-1, 119.5%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-hardest

Oh dear. Coughing up what seemed like the easiest game left on their fixture has suddenly turned the conversation around Geelong from ‘are they the scariest team outside the top four’ to ‘are they even gonna make it?!’. They almost certainly have to win one of their next two, and three of four overall – at least playing the Saints and Bulldogs in the last two rounds opens up the possibility of catching them from behind. So the path from here is still reasonably clear – you can see a world where they lose to Collingwood, beat the other three, finish on 12 and a half wins, and end up ahead of one/both of the Saints or Dogs on 12. But from the slow start to the year, to the GWS loss at home, and now to the Fremantle loss at home, the Cats just keep giving up their margin for error. They might look scary on paper but they’re just not delivering when it matters.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.75 wins, finishing 9th

10. SYDNEY SWANS (9-9-1, 111.2%)

Remaining games

Round 21: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at the SCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Melbourne at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-hardest

The rest of the AFL is being very polite, stumbling over themselves to keep the Swans somehow in the finals race, after we all-but eliminated them when they lost to Richmond in early July. Three wins later, and the Swans are still outsiders to make the eight, but have gone from mathematical to genuine chances. Next weekend’s Sydney Derby is the biggest since the 2021 elimination final, and likely serves as another one for the Swans. Lose and they can still get to 12 and a half wins, but it’d require beating both Adelaide away and a Melbourne side probably playing for top-four seeding. Win and they’ve got margin for error… and even a potential path to a home elimination final, which is crazy given where they were. This season is NUTS.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.55 wins, finishing 11th

11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

It was a mighty fight against the Demons, and shows the Tigers aren’t yet a spent force, but it also puts them back on the outside of the finals race. There’s still a path for them to make the eight, but it almost certainly involves winning their next three, and in the process passing one or both of the Bulldogs and Saints. Especially since this round’s results have pretty much guaranteed Port Adelaide will be playing for ladder position in Round 24 – you wouldn’t want to be flying over there needing a win to make the eight. So it’s simple; Richmond has only won three games at Marvel Stadium since May 2019… and needs to win another two in the next fortnight to save its season.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th

12. ADELAIDE CROWS (9-10, 116%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-easiest

Last week’s column said “just beat Port Adelaide, and then we’ll reconsider where they’re at”. Well… they’re alive. They’re still going to need to pass at least four of the teams above them, but there’s a glimmer of hope in the Crows’ season after a brilliant Showdown win. They still have to get the job done against Gold Coast, and they’ve lost three of their last four against the Suns, but have never lost to them in SA. Do that, and bank the Round 24 win, and that’s 11 wins. We can get them to 12, with a good percentage, if they win a mouth-watering mini-final against Sydney – and there’s a world where 12 with a good percentage is enough. Something like Geelong loses two more… Sydney loses one outside of Round 23… Richmond, the Dogs and Saints beat each other up, and Port helps them by beating the Tigers in Round 24… it’s possible. Unlikely, but at least possible.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.45 wins, finishing 12th

13. ESSENDON (9-10, 98.4%)

Remaining games

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Second-easiest

They’re simply running out of road. Losses to Fremantle (away), Port Adelaide, Geelong, the Bulldogs and Sydney over the last six weeks aren’t by themselves bad losses – or even upsets. But combined, they’ve left the Bombers in serious strife. Even if they win their next two, as we’ve been expecting for months, that just gets them to 11 wins, which won’t be enough. They at least need a 12th, and probably a 13th… so are they beating GWS away? Or Collingwood? Or, somehow both? We suspect the answer is neither. Good season, positive vibes around Brad Scott’s coaching, but a frustrating ending looms. (On the plus side, a bottom six draw wouldn’t hurt for next year.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.4 wins, finishing 13th

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-10, 95.2%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Carlton at Heritage Bank Stadium

Round 24: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-easiest

One of the Suns’ best ever wins, combined with some helpful results, have kept their season alive for at least one more week. Realistically they’re still underdogs in their next three games, and need to win at least two to have any shot at the eight – so while we’re not knocking them into the below category, they’ve probably just bought themselves time before it happens. (Bloody good win though.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.9 wins, finishing 14th

NOT PLAYING FINALS

15. FREMANTLE (8-11, 89%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.35 wins, finishing 15th

16. HAWTHORN (5-14, 78.4%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Fremantle at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 6.35 wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-17, 67.6%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at Blundstone Arena

Remaining fixture difficulty: Ninth-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 3 wins, finishing 17th

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-17, 50.6%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.3 wins, finishing 18th