Is there a more spectacular place in the world to watch grand prix motorcycle racing than Phillip Island?
This ribbon of tarmac perched on the edge of Bass Strait is unique. Its fast, flowing bends form a riding challenge relished by riders, and its exposure to squally southern winds and sudden bursts of rain make it an unpredictable beast to tame.
That heady combination means the racing is always good at the Australian Grand Prix, which has become a perennial favourite in the 27 years it’s been run at Phillip Island.
There’s no sign this year will be any exception.
With a title fight hotting up, a championship combination winding down and a home-crowd favourite with a point to prove, this year’s Australian Grand Prix is packed with storylines that won’t be resolved until the chequered flag falls on Sunday — rain, shine or wind.
HOW WILL THE TITLE FIGHT TWIST?
Whether or not the title goes down to the wire, the Australian Grand Prix is sure to play a pivotal part, with championship protagonists Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin both arriving Down Under with points to prove.
Bagnaia is back on form — or so he says. After a strong opening phase to the year, the middle of the season became a slog thanks to a wrist injury and then the heavy bruising sustained in that horror first-lap crash in Barcelona.
What was once a 66-point lead over Martin eroded entirely, with the Spaniard taking a seven-point advantage after last weekend’s sprint in Indonesia.
Maybe it was the impact of hitting the bottom of the barrel, or perhaps it was simply time, but Bagnaia’s performance on Sunday to take back his lead was sublime — and a reminder that he remains top dog as the reigning champion.
But he needed Martin to crash out of what had been a dominant lead to walk away with his 18-point advantage, and that gives the title pursuer motivation of his own.
“I’m happy that I am the fastest,” Martin said afterwards. “Today nobody was even close to my pace.
“Hopefully we can demonstrate that at Phillip Island.”
Both riders will be determined to stake their claim this weekend, which will set the tone for the rest of the season.
It’s a fascinating dynamic. They’re on equal machinery, and though both are super-fast, both also have error-prone histories. Clean performances, not just big ones, will be crucial.
The pressure will only ramp up from here, and how they respond will define their chances of success.
Speed of Phillip Island excites Bagnaia | 02:58
CAN JACK MILLER AVENGE LAST YEAR’S LOST PODIUM?
Jack Miller was granted the rare honour of having a corner at the legendary Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit named after him last season. A lap now takes a rider down the (Wayne) Gardner Straight, around (Mick) Doohan Corner, through the Southern Look, past (Casey) Stoner Corner and then into Miller Corner.
Having his name recognised among such decorated compatriots is just reward for his long-running service to Australia in the premier class.
But it was just Miller’s luck that it was at his newly minted corner — in view of his family and friends, who annually gather at that turn — that he was punted out of the race last year.
In his final visit to the Island in Ducati leathers, Alex Márquez rode into the back of him just eight laps in, bringing to an end what had been an excellent run of form for the Australian in the previous two races.
Given the top seven riders finished within a second of winner Álex Rins in a thrilling duel for Phillip Island supremacy, it probably also cost him a big result on home soil.
“It felt like last year we were in with a good shout of fighting for the win,” he tells Fox Sports. “But for sure I think we’re in for another one this year.”
It’s difficult to say whether his odds are better, worse or unchanged this season.
He arrives home having snapped his form slump, but KTM hasn’t been at its podium-contending best in recent months. Phillip Island also offers few of the big braking and turning zones in which his RC16 excels.
But KTM has a new carbon fibre chassis it’s very pleased with, the rear grip from which should help propel it through the track’s long sweeps.
And this circuit tends to flatten the differences between the bikes anyway, giving the rider a chance to make the difference.
Avenging last year’s lost podium could therefore be largely in Miller’s hands.
‘This will sting!’: Martin crashes out | 01:24
IS MARC MÁRQUEZ’S — AND JAPAN’S — BEST CHANCE AT VICTORY?
There’ll be no constructor hoping more strongly for levelled playing field than Honda.
The sport’s most successful team is at its lowest ebb, lost at the bottom of the manufacturers title table.
Smarting from the sudden departures of talisman Marc Márquez for a satellite Ducati team and LCR’s Álex Rins for the hardly more competitive Yamaha, the factory Honda team is the only one without a complete rider line-up with just weeks still to go this season.
A Márquez podium from third place in Japan two rounds ago was a rare bright spot. Only Rins’s almost unbelievable victory in the Untied States matches it, though that was many months — and a broken leg for the Spaniard — ago.
But Phillip Island is a funny track. On paper it favours no particular bike but does preference a rider with confidence willing to take it on.
That sounds a lot like Marc Márquez.
The six-time premier-class champion has a love-hate relationship with the track, like clockwork winning here every other year since 2015. That means he’s due this season. Having won in 2019 before the pandemic and finished second last year, his record suggests he’s due to mount the top step again.
It’s probably also his last best chance to win on a Honda before he departs for Ducati next year, with no other track likely to minimise the Japanese bike’s problems as readily as the Island.
But that best chance might be coinciding with Yamaha and Fabio Quartararo at long last finding some reasonable form, having collected two podiums from the last three rounds. Quartararo’s third place in Indonesia was a particularly gutsy ride.
The Frenchman is yet to win in Australia in any class, but Yamaha has won three of the last eight races here, sharing the spoils with Honda and Suzuki.
It’s just equalled its longest ever losing streak, having gone 25 races without mounting the top step. This might be its best chance to avoid breaking new ground and stave off the risk of completing a winless season.
‘Wasn’t easy!’: Bagnaia talks big win | 02:59
CAN DIGI SAVE HIS SEAT?
Fabio di Giannantonio is the only current rider without a contract next season — excluding Pol Espargaró, who’s being retained as a KTM reserve rider in 2023 — and it’s crunch time for him to secure a new deal.
The second-year Italian lost his Gresini seat to Márquez, and his future in the premier class relies entirely on what Honda wants to do to fill the Spaniard’s missing seat.
Di Giannantonio isn’t in contention for the factory Honda seat himself, but he can put himself near the top of the list for whichever team Márquez’s replacement is plucked from, with LCR and RNF his most likely potential destinations.
He has work to do to place himself there though.
The 25-year-old Roman has been a slow burner in MotoGP so far, but he’s just strung together the best two weekends of his career, culminating with fourth place in Indonesia last weekend.
Combined with the obvious pressures to keep his place in the sport, the emotion of the result overwhelmed him in parc fermé, where he was spotted by TV cameras breaking down.
“I am a human. Like everybody, I have emotions, I have feelings,” he said, per Crash. “For sure it has been tough, because this is not just a sport, it’s my life.
“I always worked and focused on being better and better, faster and faster. Today is not a win, it is not a podium, but it is a great result that gives you a little [reward]. It was a good moment.”
His best chance to make an impression is this weekend. At a circuit that gives the rider scope to make a difference, now’s the time to put his two seasons of learning into practice and mount his case for retention.
Marquez crashes out first lap of Sprint! | 00:29
WHAT’S THE WEATHER DOING?
It wouldn’t be a weekend at Phillip Island without some weather chat — nor without some weather disruption. This year will be no exception.
Riders arrive on Thursday to a sunny 23°C. Friday practice is much the same, at 22°C but with strengthening winds.
Conditions deteriorate on Saturday, however, with a 70 per cent chance of rain and winds building to 35 kilometres per hour.
But the Island saves its most extreme weather for Sunday, when there’s a near certain forecast of up to six millimetres for rain, southerly 45-kilometre-per-hour gusts and a top of just 16°C.
While heavy rain could disrupt race day, it’s the wind that will be most concerning to race organisers as it rushes completely uninhibited off Bass Strait and around the circuit. Too strong and sessions will be at risk of postponement on safety grounds.
But even if conditions are safe enough to proceed, the weather will be the first challenge for every rider to overcome at what is typically one of the year’s most exciting grands prix.
