It happens like clockwork. Every four years the Rugby World Cup starts and at least once the expected script is torn into pieces. An elite nation falls to a shock defeat to their apparent lowly tier two opponents and the rugby world spins slightly off-kilter for a moment.
It has just happened to Australia against Fiji in Saint-Etienne. Former Waratahs coach Matt Williams described it as “the worst defeat in Australian World Cup history.” Wallabies coach Eddie Jones even invited disgruntled fans to throw croissants and baguettes at his head as penance.
Australia’s first defeat to Fiji in 69 years stung, but it cannot be considered a huge shock. World Rugby’s most recent rankings have Fiji at No.8, one place above Australia.
Fiji have some of the world’s best players and were extremely unlucky to lose to Wales in their previous pool match. The definition of tier one and two means nothing more than teams who play in the Six Nations and The Rugby Championship. It doesn’t take ability into account, only circumstance.
The inclusion of the Fijian Drua in Super Rugby Pacific has developed a far stronger player base for Fiji and provided continuity. Perhaps ironically, the team was partially funded by a $1.8 million sponsorship deal with the federal government’s PacificAus Sports program.
Fiji, alongside other tier two nations, can now pick elite players who have previously played for other nations such as New Zealand and Australia. World Rugby changed their “birthright” law, which now allows players to represent another country if they have stood down from their original nation for three years. It flattened the playing surface slightly.
There have been far greater World Cup shocks in the past than Fiji defeating the Wallabies. In 2011, France lost to Tonga 19-14, before going all the way to the final and narrowly losing to the All Blacks.
Eddie Jones guided the then-unheralded Japan to victory against South Africa in 2015 and the Brave Blossoms repeated their giant-killing act four years later, defeating Ireland.
Although Wallabies fans will still be licking their wounds from the defeat against Fiji, there is a far bigger picture emerging from this year’s World Cup. Uruguay, Chile and Portugal have all won new fans for their bravery in their defeats against far better-resourced opponents.
All the aforementioned teams are dominated by a national obsession with football. The spotlight is very briefly shining on their rugby teams, which could allow the seedlings of the game to sprout in participation and support.
However, to get to France, they have all completed an arduous qualification process for the World Cup. None of these three countries played a tier one nation before this tournament. Their recent performances are completely against the odds.
If rugby wants to be considered a global game, then World Rugby must break down the barricades of the exclusive tier one lounge and let everyone in to mingle regularly, whether it is part of a larger World Cup as suggested by Peter FitzSimons in this masthead, or simply with more opportunities at Test level.
Welsh coach Warren Gatland welcomed the performance of Portugal against his team, arguing that there must be more opportunities for teams like Os Lobos.
“It’s important that we continue to develop these tier-two nations,” Gatland said.
“That is an important aspect. You don’t want top-tier nations dominating; you want upsets – as long as I am not a part of it!”
Gatland’s last sentence was said in jest, but it contains a kernel of truth. The elite rugby nations are happy to see the emergence of developing nations as long as it doesn’t come at their expense. They operate in an extremely competitive commercial environment and often fail to see beyond each season’s results both financially and on the scoreboard.
Australia, Argentina, South Africa, New Zealand (SANZAAR) and the Six Nations hold all the power in the game and any broader strategic decision on growing the game remains on their terms.
A new “World League” competition involving the tier one nations from the northern and southern hemisphere will be played every alternate year from 2026. Fiji and Japan are expected to be invited but there would be no relegation, nor promotion, for other tier two nations until at least 2030.
Six Nations and SANZAAR will own and operate the elite competition and World Rugby would then create a newly formed second-tier competition to facilitate promotion and relegation matches.
Last year, Georgia defeated Wales and Italy in Test matches, yet they are destined to still be fed with a regular diet of expected victories over tier two opponents and the occasional goodwill scrap of a tier one match-up.
Rugby is one of the most popular sports in Georgia, but they do not possess the economic muscle of their regular opponents Portugal, Spain or Germany. As ever, money talks loudest. It is difficult to imagine the Six Nations ignoring the financial appeal of regular games in Lisbon, Madrid or Berlin if these potential hosts were playing at the same level as Georgia.
The World Cup has packed stadiums with fans from every corner of the world. It gives an idea of what a burgeoning global game rugby could be.
Unfortunately, as long as the elite nations continue to hoard the majority of the spoils and briefly applaud a shock victory or two every four years, the game’s growth will remain indefinitely stunted.
Watch all the action from Rugby World Cup 2023 on the Home of Rugby, Stan Sport. Every match ad-free, live and on demand in 4K UHD from September 9.