With their respective 2022 flag hopes over, Melbourne and Fremantle’s focuses now turn to their lists, as well as their trade period and draft strategies.
And, coincidentally, the two clubs will be central to one of October’s biggest storylines
One of the AFL’s biggest open secrets of the season has (somewhat) been confirmed, with Luke Jackson requesting a trade home to Western Australia.
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In a statement, the Dees said they would now work with Fremantle and West Coast to “secure a suitable trade”.
While the Eagles are firmly in the frame, the links between Jackson and the Dockers have been strong for months.
It’s believed Fremantle has offered the young premiership player a long-term deal of up to seven years that could fetch up to $900,000 per season – well above what the Demons are prepared to pay him.
That contract offer and trade request could trigger a series of deals that will impact and involve several players and rival clubs.
Foxfooty.com.au breaks down how it could all work for the Demons, Dockers and Eagles, both on and off the field.
HOW THE TRADE AND SALARY SPLIT COULD LOOK
The Demons will almost certainly ask the Dockers or Eagles for at least two first-round picks as compensation for losing Jackson.
Considering Jackson’s initial draft position (Pick 3 in 2019), AFL feats (2021 Rising Star winner and premiership player), athleticism, age (nearly 21), talent and versatility, it’s a fair starting point for trade negotiations.
Should that wish come to fruition, not only would the Demons return to the first round of the draft – their first-round selection (Pick 16) is currently tied to the Swans after the Crows used it to help them land ex-Swan Jordan Dawson last year – they’d also be well placed to trade for Brodie Grundy, who appears more likely to leave than stay at the Magpies.
The Dees could then use one of those two first-rounders to strike a trade with Collingwood for Grundy, who recently met with senior Demons officials.
While Grundy would arguably command more compensation than a first-round pick, his salary would be a key aspect to trade negotiations between Collingwood and Melbourne.
The Magpies are prepared to pay a portion of Grundy’s salary – conceivably up to $350,000 per year – from the deal he signed in 2020 — a seven-year contract worth around $1 million per season.
Melbourne earlier this year was said to be prepared to offer Jackson a new deal worth up to $750,000 for a couple of seasons. Some, or all, of that cash could instead be used to pay the rest of Grundy’s wage.
If Jackson chose Freo, the initial hurdle in the Demons requesting a couple of first-rounders would be the Dockers having one of the thinnest hands at this year’s draft.
At this stage, the Dockers only hold their natural first-round selection (Pick 14), as well as Geelong’s fourth-round pick. That’s because last year they traded their natural second and fourth-round picks to Gold Coast as part of the Will Brodie salary dump deal, while they also sent their third-rounder to the Pies to help them jump up the 2021 draft order.
While the Dockers will obviously have a 2023 first-rounder to play with at the trade table, one thing for them to consider is more WA talent will be at the top of next year’s draft class — Koltyn Tholstrup, Mitch Edwards, Daniel Curtin, Riley Hardeman, Clay Hall and Koen Sanchez — compared to this year’s crop.
However the likely acquisition of Jackson has led to several Fremantle players being ‘low-balled’ by the club when presented with new contract offers. Subsequently, up to six Dockers players are contemplating their footy futures.
While Rory Lobb’s impending request to join the Western Bulldogs doesn’t appear financially driven, off-contract duo Blake Acres and Griffin Logue are being tipped to move amid interest from Victorian-based clubs.
A report last week indicated the Demons, Eagles and Giants had all shown interest in fringe Dockers ruck Lloyd Meek, who’s contracted to Fremantle until at least the end of the 2023 season but managed just 15 AFL games since being drafted in late 2017.
It also emerged last month that five Victorian clubs – North Melbourne, Essendon, Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn – had expressed interest in Darcy Tucker, who’s tied to Fremantle until the end of next season but could find a new home if the Dockers feel they receive an appropriate trade offer. The Kangaroos are understood to be the favourite to land Tucker.
And Fox Footy’s Jon Ralph reported on Saturday that Liam Henry, the Dockers NGA graduate that was drafted by Freo with Pick 9 in 2019, will “at least consider his options” this off-season after managing just 27 games since his debut in 2020.
Losing up to six players would leave a chasm in the Dockers’ list. But not only would it free up cap space to acquire Jackson, it would also help them get a deal done with the Dees – not immediately, but eventually, considering the calibre of players that could leave.
Considering Lobb is still contracted and finished the year as the Dockers’ leading goalkicker, the Dockers could push the Dogs for a first-rounder in return. The Dogs, though, would argue they’d be taking on a significant salary for a 29-year-old player that just had a career-best season in a rollercoaster AFL stint to date.
A first-round selection (Pick 6) in 2016, Logue is also coming off a 2022 campaign where he managed a career-high 20 games and impressed across all three areas of the field. But most rival clubs argue Logue would only be worth a second-round selection at best.
Acres had an outstanding 2022 season – clearly the best of his nine-year career so far – to the point where he was in All-Australian contention at the halfway mark of the year. But Freo legend Matthew Pavlich told SEN WA on Monday Acres was “not in the best 10 players at Fremantle” – and if Carlton, the club most heavily linked with Acres, holds that same viewpoint, a first-round pick won’t be going the Dockers’ way.
And Meek, Tucker and Henry aren’t in the same bracket as the aforementioned Freo trio, even though Henry was taken two picks after Hayden Young and one pick after Caleb Serong at the draft three years ago.
But whatever picks the Dockers get back for losing any of those six players would at least give them capital to bundle up selections and negotiate with other clubs looking to either bank draft points or take multiple players at this year’s draft. That would likely net the Dockers better picks to deal with for a Jackson trade.
Meek could even be part of a Dockers-Demons deal – considering he’s already attracted interest from Melbourne – but whether the Dees would be interested in adding him to their ruck stocks while also being in the market for Grundy remains questionable.
But the Eagles can’t be discounted.
While Fremantle’s first selection this year is Pick 13, West Coast is scheduled to enter the draft at Pick 2 — the club’s first top-10 selection since 2010 when it took Andrew Gaff with Pick 4 — after finishing 17th on the AFL ladder. It also has its natural second-round selection, which sits at Pick 20.
It remains uncertain whether West Coast would want to part with its first pick. Rival recruiters spoken to by foxfooty.com.au suggested the Eagles, who have begun their rebuild and need to draft lots of young talent over the next few years, would be wise to listen to offers from rival clubs that want to move up the draft order and were prepared to offer the Eagles multiple early picks in return.
If the Eagles, though, wanted Jackson and were happy to trade Pick 2 for him, they’d need permission from the AFL to part with the selection after trading away several first-round picks in past years due to the Tim Kelly trade. The Age reported the AFL would allow the Eagles to do so.
HOW THE DEES AND DOCKERS COULD MAKE IT WORK ON THE FIELD
It’s easy to understand why the Dockers are thrilled at the prospect of landing an off-contract 21-year-old that grew up in WA and wants to return home. But should Jackson get to Freo, it’ll be fascinating to see how he’d combine with Sean Darcy – a young ruck star himself at 24 that won the Dockers’ best and fairest award last season.
Considering Darcy’s rise and age, as well as Jackson’s output this year, the Dockers big man would surely retain the No. 1 ruck mantle for 2023. And considering the likely departure of Lobb – who played key forward and pinch-hit in the ruck at Freo – to the Bulldogs, Jackson could be used primarily as a forward.
Whether Jackson would want that, though, and be prepared to play ruck second fiddle remains questionable, as that was the same role he played at the Demons for three years.
The prospect of Jackson usurping Darcy at the Dockers has prompted suggestions the latter should explore his trade options, despite being contracted to the Dockers until the end of the 2024 season.
But ahead of the Dockers’ elimination final against the Bulldogs, Darcy declared his future was at Fremantle – with or without Jackson.
“He (Jackson) is a super player, if he comes in we can work together and off we go,” Darcy told the ABC.
“If he comes he comes, if he doesn‘t he doesn’t.
“It‘s his decision, it’s a big decision … but at the end of the day he’s a talented player, and we’d love to have him here.”
It must be said, though, that Jackson to West Coast make a lot of sense — and is arguably a more appropriate fit than Fremantle.
Eagles superstar Nic Naitanui is 32 and clearly closer to the end of his career than the start, managing just eight games in 2022.
And considering Bailey Williams and Callum Jamieson haven’t announced themselves as No. 1 ruck candidates during their Eagles stints yet, acquiring Jackson would be timely for West Coast, which should be back in finals contention when Jackson is hitting his prime.
Plus the prospect of Jackson spending a few seasons learning under Naitanui’s guidance would appeal to the young ruck, who spoke of his admiration for Naitanui before he was drafted.
“I still remember as a family we’d always go to Eagles games and I’d just be watching Nic Nat,” Jackson told foxfooty.com.au in 2019.
“He just stands out heaps with the way he gets around the ground and takes big marks – that’s something I’d love to do one day and get to that level.”
Then there’s the Dees, who seemingly have the capabilities to make a Grundy trade and salary work off the field – and the confidence to make it work on the field.
Several pundits have questioned whether there‘s enough room for Demons skipper Max Gawn and Grundy – clearly the two best rucks of the past five seasons with a total of eight All-Australian blazers between them – in the same team and, specifically, how effective Gawn would be closer to goal. After all, Gawn only kicked 13 goals in 2022 and has never kicked more than 16 majors in a season.
But Dees coach Simon Goodwin last month said he’d liked what he’d seen from Gawn as a forward, while the man himself is said to be happy to spend more time there as he enters his post-30 years.
Former Demons player and four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis believes Grundy and Gawn would be a “lethal combination” that‘d “provide a big headache” for opposition teams if they clicked.
“Ideally you’d like 50-50 (ruck time split) but clearly someone needs to go off at some stage. They both would be in my opinion good forwards,” Lewis told Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“Both can clearly mark the ball – Max needs some work on his goalkicking – but both could be really dangerous options in the forward line.”
