Everybody loves a feel good story.
Last season couldn’t have gone much worse for the TCU football program, finishing with a disappointing 5-7 record. Under-pressure head coach Gary Patterson (the longest-serving coach in the school’s history) resigned mid-season after two decades in the role.
But that’s what made this season all the more special as the Horned Frogs – under the guidance of new head coach Sonny Dykes – rose like a Phoenix from the Ashes.
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Even in their epic semi-final win over Michigan there were red flags. The Horned Frogs were outplayed for most of the game as indicated by them trailing in nearly every key statistical category, including first downs (19-25), total yards(488-528) and time of possession (27:35-32:25). Most football pundits believed post-game that the 51-45 result was more a case of Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines losing the game rather than TCU winning it, with Michigan likely to lament a number of missed opportunities. What’s worse is that the No. 2 ranked Wolverines looked less prepared, out-coached and not quite ready for the moment as they fell to 1-6 in bowl games under Harbaugh.
Prior to the announcement of the final rankings that would determine the four teams who would make the College Football Playoffs, Alabama coach Nick Saban made a strong argument for his team to be selected despite their 10-2 record. “The whole goal is to get the best teams in,” Saban said at the time. “And what I would say to the committee, if we played any of these teams on the edge of getting in, would we be the underdog or would we be the favourite?”
In hindsight, and given what occurred on Tuesday, it’s hard to argue that Saban’s stacked Crimson Tide roster would’ve not only been more competitive in a potential match-up against Georgia, but also stood the best chance of beating the Bulldogs (outside of Ohio State who had a 38-24 lead at the start of the fourth quarter and missed a 50-yard field goal in the dying seconds, which would’ve won them the game).
FS1 sportscaster Colin Cowherd also felt that Alabama deserved a spot in the final four. “This is why I wanted ’Bama in, this is why I argued for ’Bama to get in,” he said during a segment on his show ‘The Herd’. “Is this a beauty contest or do we want the best teams? I want the best teams. I wanted ’Bama in, everybody wanted TCU in.”
WHY ALABAMA ARGUABLY SHOULD’VE MADE THE PLAYOFFS
Well for starters, their record.
No that wasn’t a misprint, just like TCU’s 12-1 record didn’t tell the whole story of how good they really were this season, the same can be said of Alabama’s 10-2 record heading into the final ranking announcement.
Saban’s Crimson Tide may have had two less wins and one more loss than the Horned Frogs, but everyone who watches college football knows that not all wins and losses are created equal, not to mention the vast inequities that exist within the season schedule for each team under the current system.
In the same way that a closer examination of TCU’s season revealed a team that needed multiple comebacks and a stack of close victories in the weaker Big 12 conference just to get to 12 wins, a closer look at Alabama’s season shows a team that dominated most of their opposition in the vaunted SEC (seven wins of 20+ points and an average winning margin of 27.7 points across their 10 regular season victories) and had a combined losing margin of four points in their two lone defeats to arch rivals Tennessee and LSU.
Furthermore, after getting snubbed by the committee in the selection of the College Football Playoff finalists, the Crimson Tide beat the brakes off of Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl (the same Wildcats team that beat the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Conference title game) on their way to a 45-20 victory.
Talent wise, the argument is not even debatable, as TCU has to try to do more with less (recruiting class ranking last five seasons: 45th, 54th, 23rd, 32nd, 25th) while Alabama (2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 5th) has a roster only rivalled in quality by the likes of powerhouses Georgia (3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st), Ohio State (4th, 2nd, 5th, 14th, 2nd), LSU (12th, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 15th), and Clemson (10th, 5th, 3rd, 10th, 7th).
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HOW WILL THE NEW EXPANSION WORK?
Just one more season of the four-team College Football Playoff field remains before the sport undergoes a historic shift.
Beginning in the 2024 season, the CFP will adopt a 12-team format that includes byes, automatic bids and on-campus games as part of a historic change in how college football’s national champion is determined.
The expedited change to adopting a 12-team format became official when the CFP’s Board of Managers formally approved it on December 1 — and though we’re still a couple years away from expansion, the criteria for how the bracket will be composed is already known.
The new expanded format is a 12-team bracket consisting of the six highest-ranked conference champions (no minimum ranking requirement) plus the next six highest-ranked teams.
During the regular season CFP Selection Committee will continue to determine weekly rankings with the criteria to be re-evaluated. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 with first-round byes, while the four highest remaining seeds will host lower seeds at sites to be determined. First-round games will be played at campus sites on either the second or third weekend in December, at least 12 days after conference championship games. Quarter-final and semi-final games will be played at rotating bowl sites subject to agreements being reached, while the national championship will continue being played at neutral sites (existing conference relationships with bowls will be considered for game placements).
WHY DOES EXPANSION MATTER?
The College Football Playoffs upcoming expansion to 12 teams matters two-fold.
Firstly, as CFP executive director Bill Hancock pointed out, a 12-team playoff field should only serve to heighten the significance of the regular season, including ensuring more meaningful games in November.
“The regular season has become more important,” Hancock said. “The game of college football is certainly very healthy. Look at the viewership. Look at the number of people in the stands. I think this 12-team tournament will only enhance that.”
With the six highest-ranked conference champions guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field, it’s possible athletic directors are more inclined to take risks in the non-conference schedule and add high-quality Power 5 opponents to the slate. There will be less pressure to finish undefeated or with one loss in the new format, which in the end will only serve the fans by seeing the powerhouse programs battle it out during the regular season more often.
Expansion isn’t all about favouring the powerhouse college programs though, as it also gives non-power conference teams a better chance, with a playoff bid being a real option for more schools helps, in turn helping them to get better long-term. It’s all about greater opportunities.
Ultimately, the best young athletes coming out of high school want a chance to play in the biggest games against the best opposition and have the chance to put their name up in lights in the hope of realising their NFL dreams. So in theory, more playoff spots on offer should only help some non-powerhouse programs with their chances to convince the nation’s best recruits to commit to their school over say an Alabama or Georgia.
Under the 12-team format, conference championship games will take on new significance.
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For example, Kansas State would have locked up its own spot in the CFP and robbed TCU of a first-round bye with its win over the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Championship Game. The same goes for Utah as a result of its win over USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes would have gone from a bubble team to the No. 4 seed because of their win. If Kansas State or Utah had lost, it would have marked their fourth defeats of the season and may have knocked them out of the bracket.
In that scenario, Washington would have benefited. The Huskies finished No. 12 in the CFP Rankings as the only two-loss team from a Power Five conference to miss this year’s hypothetical 12-team field. One quirk of the new format that will be debated is over the fourth-best conference champion and the fifth-best conference champion. The fourth-highest ranked conference champion gets a first-round bye while the fifth-ranked conference champion does not.
This year, those teams were Utah and Kansas State, and there wasn’t much difference between them. Utah finished at No. 8 and Kansas State finished at No. 9. But because the Utes narrowly edged the Wildcats in the rankings, their lot would have been significantly better in this year’s hypothetical 12-team bracket. Utah would received a bye before playing either Tulane or TCU in a quarterfinal matchup. On the other hand, Kansas State would have had to play at Tennessee in the first round and then would’ve had to play a well-rested and top-ranked Georgia team if it won.
Not only will the expansion create more playoff opportunities as well as improve the regular season viewing experience for the fans, but as sports director Evan Closky highlighted during a segment on 10 Tampa Bay, it will also ensure more often than not the true best two teams in college football each season square off in the national championship game – much like the NCAA’s March Madness has done in college basketball.
“Expanding the playoffs will weed out the weak on most occasions and should leave us with the best two teams standing. The answer is more, to a degree, not less,” Closky said.
“So better days are ahead because just like March Madness, yes there are miracle stories like Saint Peter’s (who upset No. 2 seed Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue during a fairytale run to become the first No. 15 seed in tournament history to advance to the Elite Eight), but you know what? 65 per cent of the time the No. 1 seed ends up winning. Usually everything falls properly into its place.”
Having the actual two best teams square off more often in the championship game should have a ripple effect for both broadcasters and college football as a whole.
According to a report by the ‘Sports Business Journal’, Monday night’s game between Georgia and TCU, a 65-7 blowout in which the Bulldogs could have scored 100 if they wanted, drew only 17.2 million viewers across the various ESPN platforms that televised the game. That’s down from 22.5 million for last year’s Georgia-Alabama title game.
It’s dramatically lower than the Ohio State and Oregon game that capped the 2014 season. That one racked up 33.9 million viewers.
It clearly shows what happens when the game isn’t a good one and only serves to reconfirm the fundamental takeaway that expansion of the College Football Playoffs in 2024 can’t come quick enough.
